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February 17, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson delivers a chilling diagnosis of a nation that has voluntarily stepped off the global stage, arguing that the administration's pursuit of ideological purity is actively dismantling American prosperity and security. While the official narrative celebrates a "Golden Age," the evidence she marshals suggests a reality where allies are forging new alliances without the United States and domestic economic engines are stalling under the weight of isolationist policy. This is not a story of political maneuvering, but of a fundamental strategic retreat that is reshaping the world order in America's absence.

The Great Global Reorientation

Richardson's most striking observation is that the administration's ideological pivot has backfired spectacularly on the international front. She notes that at the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Marco Rubio's endorsement of white Christian nationalism failed to woo European partners; instead, it accelerated their drift away from Washington. "Europe needs to emancipate itself from the U.S. as fast as possible," she quotes foreign affairs journalist Anne Applebaum, capturing the urgency of the moment. This is a profound shift. For decades, the transatlantic alliance was the bedrock of American power, but Richardson argues that the administration has squandered this strategic advantage.

February 17, 2026

The consequences are already materializing in concrete policy shifts. Richardson points out that Germany is now training its armed forces using Ukrainian veterans, while Canada is actively reducing its defense dependence on the U.S. under Prime Minister Mark Carney. "Canada is leading discussions between the European Union and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc to form one of the globe's largest economic alliances," she writes, highlighting a new trade architecture that explicitly excludes the United States. This moves beyond diplomatic snubbing to a structural realignment of global commerce. Critics might argue that the U.S. still holds the largest market, but Richardson's evidence suggests that supply chains are the new currency, and the world is reorganizing them to bypass American tariffs.

"Trump insisted that abandoning the free trade principles under which the U.S. economy had boomed since World War II would enable the U.S. to leverage its extraordinary economic might through tariffs, but it appears... that the rest of the world is simply moving on without the U.S."

The Domestic Economic Disconnect

The narrative of economic resurgence promoted by the administration crumbles under Richardson's scrutiny of the data. She contrasts the administration's boastful claims about the stock market with the reality that U.S. markets are significantly underperforming global peers. Citing Carl Quintanilla of CNBC, she notes that the S&P 500 is having its worst year since 1995 relative to the global market. This isn't just a fluctuation; it's a signal of capital flight.

The labor market tells an even starker story. Richardson details how Florida's strict immigration laws have created a severe labor shortage, with employers unable to find workers even at high wages. "The lesson for President Trump is that businesses can't grow if government takes away their workers," she cites from a Wall Street Journal editorial, a blunt assessment that contradicts the administration's rhetoric. The administration's response—promising to replace undocumented workers with young Americans through apprenticeships—ignores the structural reality that the workforce simply isn't there. With manufacturing losing over 100,000 jobs in 2025 and hiring hitting its lowest point since 2003, the economic foundation is eroding.

Compounding this is a looming commercial real estate crisis. Richardson reports that banks are demanding repayment on tens of billions in loans, with delinquency rates not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. "More than half of the loans are likely headed for foreclosure or liquidation," she warns. This financial instability is being masked by massive government spending on military adventures and enforcement, which the administration claims will be offset by growth that isn't happening. The Congressional Budget Office projects a deficit of $1.85 trillion for the fiscal year, a gap that tax cuts for the wealthy will only widen.

The Cost of Militarism and the Erosion of Trust

Perhaps the most somber section of Richardson's piece addresses the human cost of the administration's foreign policy. She details a dramatic increase in military strikes, noting that in just one year, the administration launched at least 658 air and drone strikes across multiple nations. "Today, U.S. Southern Command announced it struck three boats in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean yesterday and killed 11 people it claims were smuggling drugs," she writes, bringing the total death toll from such operations to over 130. These are not abstract statistics; they represent a shift toward a more aggressive, unilateral military posture that risks escalating conflicts, particularly with threats now directed at Iran.

This militarism is funded by diverting resources from social programs to detention and deportation, creating a paradox where the government claims to cut waste while spending billions on enforcement. Richardson also highlights the administration's growing fear of its own citizens, pointing to the FBI blocking state investigations into police shootings and the FCC threatening to penalize media outlets for interviewing political candidates. The case of Texas lawmaker James Talarico, who was effectively silenced by network censors due to regulatory pressure, illustrates this chilling effect. "There is nothing Christian about Christian nationalism," Talarico told a late-night host, calling it "the worship of power in the name of Christ." This spiritual critique cuts to the heart of the administration's ideological project, suggesting that the push for Christian nationalism is a betrayal of the faith it claims to uphold.

"The true way to practice Christianity is simple but not easy: it is to love your neighbor. Political positions should grow out of that to feed the hungry, welcome the stranger, and heal the sick."

Richardson also touches on the administration's entanglement in prediction markets, where family members are investing heavily while the government moves to block state regulations. This blurring of lines between public office and private gain, combined with the suppression of dissent, creates an atmosphere of deep institutional distrust. The administration's actions suggest a regime that is less interested in governing and more focused on consolidating power, even as the economic and geopolitical costs mount.

Bottom Line

Heather Cox Richardson's argument is at its strongest when connecting the administration's ideological rigidity to tangible global and domestic failures, painting a picture of a nation isolating itself just as the world moves on. The piece's greatest vulnerability is its reliance on the assumption that economic pain will inevitably lead to political change, a historical trend that does not always hold in the face of populist fervor. Readers should watch for how the commercial real estate crisis and the labor shortages in key states like Florida evolve, as these are the pressure points that could finally force a reckoning with the current trajectory.

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February 17, 2026

by Heather Cox Richardson · Letters from an American · Read full article

Trump’s White House website welcomes visitors with a pop-up that reads: “WELCOME TO THE GOLDEN AGE!” But on this heavy news day a year into Trump’s second term, it is increasingly clear that as his regime focuses on committing the United States to white Christian nationalism, the country is becoming increasingly isolated from the rest of the world, and its own economy is weakening.

At the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s endorsement of white Christian nationalism does not appear to have swayed European countries to abandon their defense of democracy and join the U.S.’s slide toward authoritarianism. Instead, as retired lieutenant general and former commander of U.S. Army Europe Mark Hertling wrote, it squandered the strategic advantage its partnership with Europe has given the U.S.

Foreign affairs journalist Anne Applebaum noted that the word in Munich was that “Europe needs to emancipate itself from the U.S. as fast as possible.” In Germany, Der Spiegel reports plans to bring Ukrainian veterans to teach German armed forces drone use and counter-drone practices the Ukrainians are perfecting in their war against Russian occupation. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney is working to reduce Canada’s defense dependence on the U.S., ramping up domestic defense production.

Carney has advanced a foreign policy that centers “middle powers” and operates without the U.S. That global reorientation has profound consequences for the U.S. economy, as well. Canada is leading discussions between the European Union and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc to form one of the globe’s largest economic alliances. A new agreement would enable the countries to share supply chains and to share a low-tariff system. Canada also announced it is renewing its partnership with China. As of this week, Canadians can travel to China without a visa.

Today France’s president Emmanuel Macron and India’s prime minister Narendra Modi upgraded Indian-French relations to a “Special Strategic Partnership” during a three-day visit of Macron to Mumbai. They have promised to increase cooperation between the two countries in defense, trade, and critical materials.

Trump insisted that abandoning the free trade principles under which the U.S. economy had boomed since World War II would enable the U.S. to leverage its extraordinary economic might through tariffs, but it appears, as economist Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute wrote today for Bloomberg, that the rest of the world is simply moving on without the U.S.

While Trump boasts about ...