Dave Borlace cuts through a decade of broken promises to ask a question that matters: is the solid-state battery revolution actually arriving, or is this just another cycle of hype? While the industry has long treated mass production as a distant mirage, Borlace highlights a specific, tangible development from Japan that suggests the timeline may have finally compressed. This isn't a theoretical discussion about future chemistry; it is an analysis of a concrete manufacturing commitment that could reshape the energy storage landscape within months.
The Pattern of Disappointment
Borlace begins by dismantling the optimism that has surrounded solid-state technology for years, noting that "there's been an awful lot of industry and media excitement around solid-state batteries for about the last decade or so." He argues that this enthusiasm is frequently misplaced, pointing to high-profile failures where manufacturers promised breakthroughs only to retreat. The author details how Fisker initially targeted a 2020 release for a solid-state supercar, only to delay and eventually abandon the concept entirely. Similarly, he recounts how Dyson spent billions acquiring a battery firm and developing an electric vehicle before "canning the project altogether," writing off massive capital.
The core of Borlace's argument is that the difficulty of the engineering challenge has been systematically underestimated. He explains that while the basic principle of replacing liquid electrolytes with solids seems straightforward, the execution is fraught with peril. "Solid state batteries are proven to be devilishly difficult things to develop," he writes, a phrase that captures the frustration of an industry stuck in R&D purgatory. This framing is effective because it grounds the reader in the reality of manufacturing, rather than the fantasy of lab prototypes. It suggests that the barrier isn't just scientific discovery, but the ability to scale production without catastrophic failure.
Critics might note that focusing on past failures could unfairly penalize current innovators, as technology often follows a "S-curve" where progress is slow before exploding. However, Borlace's point stands: the financial and reputational cost of over-promising has been severe, making the market skeptical of new claims.
The Chemistry of Safety and Speed
The commentary then shifts to the technical advantages that make the struggle worthwhile. Borlace contrasts traditional lithium-ion batteries, which rely on a volatile liquid electrolyte, with the solid-state alternative. He describes the dangerous "dendrite issue" in current batteries, where lithium deposits form spikes that can puncture separators, leading to short circuits and potential fires. In contrast, solid-state batteries eliminate this risk by using a solid electrolyte. "The result could be a nasty swollen battery pouch that has to be replaced or if you're really unlucky you could find yourself with a small incendiary device going off in your trouser pocket," he warns, using vivid imagery to underscore the safety imperative.
Beyond safety, the performance metrics are transformative. Borlace notes that these new batteries could offer "perhaps as much as three times that of a standard lithium-ion battery" in energy density. Furthermore, they may be capable of "recharging up to six times faster than current Technologies." This is the "Holy Grail" for electric vehicle makers, as it removes the need for bulky battery management systems and significantly reduces charging times. The author's explanation of why this matters is clear: it addresses the two biggest consumer anxieties regarding electric transport—range and charging speed.
The useful reactivity of lithium also has its downside... if they manage to get all the way across to the cathode then you get a short circuit an instant discharge of a very reactive material into a volatile and highly flammable liquid electrolyte.
The Murata Breakthrough
The pivot of the piece is the announcement by Murata, a major Japanese manufacturer, to begin mass production by autumn 2021. Borlace emphasizes that this is not a vague promise but a specific industrial commitment. Murata, which acquired Sony's battery division in 2017, has combined that expertise with its own ceramic capacitor technology to create a battery with a "non-combustible and highly heat resistant solid oxide ceramic electrolyte." Unlike competitors focusing on electric vehicles, Murata is targeting the wearable and Internet of Things (IoT) market, a strategic choice that allows them to bypass the extreme scaling challenges of automotive production.
This move is described as a "pretty bold move for Murata" because they are investing heavily upfront with no guarantee of immediate profit. Borlace suggests this is a defensive play to stay ahead in a "rapidly becoming an extremely competitive playing field." The author's analysis here is sharp: by targeting a smaller, high-value niche first, Murata can refine the manufacturing process before tackling the massive automotive sector. This approach mitigates the risk of the "empty battery promise" that has plagued others.
However, the article acknowledges that water sensitivity remains a hurdle for many solid-state chemistries, as one Toyota engineer noted that maintaining a dry state in a plant is difficult. While Murata's oxide ceramic may be less susceptible, the general manufacturing complexity remains a significant counterpoint to the optimism.
The Automotive Race and the QuantumScape Cautionary Tale
While Murata targets wearables, the ultimate prize remains the electric vehicle market. Borlace highlights Toyota's aggressive stance, noting they hold over a thousand patents and are backed by a $19 billion state fund. The Japanese automaker plans to launch a prototype by the end of 2021, with a production model featuring a 10-minute charge time and 500-mile range following shortly after. This government-industry alignment provides a stark contrast to the fragmented efforts seen elsewhere.
Yet, Borlace uses the collapse of QuantumScape to illustrate the danger of over-hyping. The US company, backed by Bill Gates, saw its stock surge 256% on claims of fire-resistant batteries with massive cycle life. However, an independent report suggested the batteries were "actually smaller than an iWatch battery and had never been tested outside a lab." The subsequent stock crash and class-action lawsuit serve as a grim reminder of the gap between prototype success and commercial viability. Borlace writes, "putting the corporate head above a well-targeted public parapet has so far proven to be a dangerous and costly Gamble." This section serves as a crucial reality check, tempering the excitement with the hard lessons of financial markets.
The real Holy Grail though that tantalizingly elusive Megabucks goal that keeps all major r d departments furiously working away all over the world is of course a truly affordable mass-produced solid-state battery for electric vehicles.
Bottom Line
Dave Borlace's analysis succeeds by grounding the hype of solid-state batteries in the hard realities of manufacturing and financial risk. The strongest part of the argument is the distinction between Murata's pragmatic, niche-first strategy and the high-stakes, high-failure-rate approach of automotive-focused startups. The biggest vulnerability remains the sheer difficulty of scaling solid-state chemistry for the automotive sector, where water sensitivity and cost are still unresolved. Readers should watch whether Murata's success in the IoT sector can be translated to the automotive world, or if the industry remains stuck in the "30 years away" cycle of nuclear fusion.