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Weekly dose of optimism #199

Packy McCormick delivers a rare convergence of private capital ambition and public policy momentum in his 199th Weekly Dose of Optimism, arguing that the most significant breakthroughs of this summer aren't just technological, but institutional. While much of the news cycle fixates on gridlock, McCormick highlights a specific alignment where billionaires are funding existential threats like respiratory viruses and the government is finally unlocking capital for nuclear power and housing construction.

The Private Sector as Public Health Architect

McCormick opens with a personal anecdote about suffering through a cold to underscore a staggering statistic: "Most of us will spend 5% of our lives (!) sick from these viruses, they kill 1M people a year, cost $600B annually in productivity, and periodically threaten civilization through pandemics." He frames the new Stripe initiative, Intercept, not merely as philanthropy but as a necessary correction to market failure. Nan Ransohoff of Stripe is quoted noting that while we treat these infections as minor nuisances, "Every year, we just accept that part of our year is going to suck."

Weekly dose of optimism #199

The core of McCormick's argument here is that the technical challenges of broad-spectrum antivirals have long been ignored because they lack immediate profit margins. By mobilizing $500 million from Stripe and partners like Anthropic, the initiative attempts to solve the "underfunded part" of the problem. This mirrors historical efforts in clean technology where public-private partnerships were required to scale innovations that pure venture capital deemed too risky or slow. McCormick writes, "This is what our billionaires should be doing, and I hope as many people copy Stripe here as copy the design of their homepage." The framing is compelling because it shifts the narrative from charity to strategic investment in human capital.

We treat respiratory infections as a minor nuisance, but that's really not the case. Every year, we just accept that part of our year is going to suck.

Critics might argue that relying on private philanthropy for public health infrastructure creates uneven coverage and lacks the regulatory teeth of government mandates. However, McCormick suggests this concentrated capital injection could jumpstart a market that eventually attracts broader investment.

Housing Reform and Political Friction

The piece pivots to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which passed the House with a massive bipartisan vote of 358-to-32. McCormick notes the urgency: "Vacancies are too low, mortgage rates are elevated, home prices keep rising, and the rents are too damn high!" The legislation aims to loosen federal regulations and reward communities that build, addressing a crisis where "many rules in place get in the way of that happening." He draws a parallel to Not Boring Capital's investment in Cuby, suggesting that while private enterprise tackles the technical side of construction, "now the government is doing its part to clear the way for new homes."

However, McCormick does not shy away from the political volatility surrounding the bill. He reports that the executive branch has stalled the process, with the President refusing to sign unless concurrent voter ID legislation passes and explicitly stating he doesn't want to lower home prices for current owners. Despite this, McCormick emphasizes that "a healthy majority from both sides understands that a lot of Americans do give a fck about housing." He concludes that the bill's veto-proof majority is a testament to public demand, even as it serves as a warning that "NIMBY fcks can be really dangerous."

Nuclear Renaissance and Scientific Audacity

McCormick identifies a second wave of optimism in energy policy, specifically the Department of Energy's conditional commitment of $17.5 billion for ten Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. He describes these as "the big boys, the 1GW guys... that can power whole towns by themselves indefinitely." The strategy involves using government balance sheets to de-risk early-stage procurement, a move McCormick calls "a smart way for the government to aim its balance sheet at a high-leverage point in the process."

Beyond large-scale nuclear, he highlights the audacity of Aleph Neuro's founders, who injected contrast microbubbles into their own brains to achieve the highest-resolution 3D images ever taken from outside the skull. McCormick captures the moment: "I could never convey the feeling of this discovery... it's my own brain. A brain was looking at itself." He praises this "good ol' fashioned scientist-as-subject research" as a vital skillset in an age increasingly dominated by artificial intelligence.

The commentary also touches on the revival of neglected knowledge, noting how Analogue Group is funding the translation of Soviet papers from the 1950s and 80s. McCormick recalls founders telling him that their tech was based on "a Soviet research paper from like 1957," suggesting a vast reservoir of forgotten innovation waiting to be rediscovered.

A brain was looking at itself, while also knowing that it was the first time anyone in the world had seen this kind of brain image; this was divine poetry.

A counterargument worth considering is whether these nuclear loans and housing bills can move fast enough to meet climate goals or affordability crises before political tides shift again. The reliance on specific executive actions remains a vulnerability, even with strong congressional support.

Bottom Line

McCormick's strongest argument lies in his identification of a quiet coalition: private capital willing to tackle systemic risks and a legislative supermajority demanding practical solutions for housing and energy. The piece's biggest vulnerability is the uncertainty of executive branch cooperation, which threatens to derail bipartisan progress on critical infrastructure. Readers should watch whether these funding commitments translate into physical construction or remain stalled by bureaucratic inertia.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • The End of Epidemics Amazon · Better World Books by Jonathan D. Quick

  • Broad-spectrum antiviral drug

    The article highlights Stripe's Intercept initiative aiming to eliminate respiratory infections through broad-spectrum preventatives, a technical approach that contrasts with traditional strain-specific vaccines.

  • Clean technology

    Understanding the specific engineering behind air purification systems is essential to grasp how the Intercept initiative plans to physically remove viruses from indoor environments rather than just treating infected individuals.

  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act

    While the article mentions this bipartisan bill, a deep dive reveals the specific zoning and regulatory mechanisms it proposes to dismantle local barriers to housing construction, which is central to the author's optimism about solving the housing crisis.

Sources

Weekly dose of optimism #199

by Packy McCormick · Not Boring · Read full article

Hi friends,

Happy Friday and welcome to our 199th Weekly Dose of Optimism! For some reason, maybe it’s the fantastic summer vibes, this one was particularly fun to write, so without further ado…

Let’s get to it.

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(1) Stripe Launches Intercept to End Respiratory Infections.

Nan Ransohoff for Stripe

I have had a cold all week. You forget how little fun a cold is! It sounds innocent, if annoying, a little cold. You don’t want to be the guy who complains about a cold. Rub some dirt in it, get back to work. But I’ve been operating at like ~40%. It would be way better if I didn’t have a cold…

And thanks to a new effort from Stripe, in the future, I (and everyone else) may not have to. Nan Ransohoff, who runs Public Goods at Stripe, announced that they’re launching Intercept: “a $500M philanthropic initiative to make respiratory infections, like the common cold and flu, a thing of the past.”

As Nan wrote:

We treat respiratory infections as a minor nuisance, but that’s really not the case. Most of us will spend 5% of our lives (!) sick from these viruses, they kill 1M people a year, cost $600B annually in productivity, and periodically threaten civilization through pandemics.

But respiratory infections are technically challenging and they’ve been underfunded, so we haven’t made much progress against them. Every year, we just accept that part of our year is going to suck (more time if we have kids, and suck more if it’s a particularly bad virus that kills us).

Intercept is solving the underfunded part, with money from Stripe, Anthropic, The OpenAI Foundation, Flu Lab, and people from Jane Street. It believes it can solve the ...