The Numbers Behind the Podium
Donald Trump entered his first State of the Union address of his second term on the night of February 2026 carrying the worst polling numbers of his presidency. The February Strength In Numbers/Verasight survey, conducted by G. Elliott Morris, found the president's overall job approval at just 37 percent, with 59 percent disapproving -- a net rating of negative 22 and a new low for the tracking poll. For the first time since the series began in May 2025, Trump does not hold a positive approval rating on any single issue tested.
Trump's overall job approval has fallen to net -22, and he's now underwater or tied on every single issue we track, including border security, which had been his last remaining bright spot.
That last detail matters. Border security was the one issue where Trump had consistently outperformed his overall numbers. In January, he held a net positive four on the topic. By February, it had slipped to zero. The administration's signature issue is now, statistically, a wash.
A Generic Ballot Flashing Red
The Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot widened to 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. Morris notes this is the widest margin his poll has recorded and the first time it has reached double digits.
For context, the out-party typically gains ground on the generic ballot as a midterm approaches. The party out of power has gained an average of about 5 points between February and November in modern midterm cycles. If that pattern holds — and the starting point is already D+10 — Democrats would be looking at a margin deep into wave territory by Election Day.
Morris is careful to flag the uncertainty. Historical averages are averages, not predictions, and a February snapshot taken nine months before a midterm election has plenty of room to shift. Still, the structural positioning is striking. Democrats won the 2018 blue wave with a smaller popular vote margin than this poll currently shows.
One counterpoint worth noting: generic ballot polling this far out has historically overstated the eventual margin for the out-party. The question captures sentiment, not turnout, and midterm electorates tend to be older, whiter, and more conservative than the general adult population these surveys sample. A D+10 generic ballot in February does not necessarily translate to a D+10 result in November.
Every Issue Moving the Wrong Direction
The issue-by-issue breakdown is where the data turns genuinely grim for the White House. Morris tracks approval across eleven policy areas, and every single one moved against Trump from January to February except health care, which held steady at net negative 28.
Three declines stand out. Government funding and social programs cratered seven points to net negative 26 -- the sharpest single-issue drop in the survey.
This may reflect a hit to the GOP over the current DHS shutdown or anger at the expiration of health care subsidies last month.
Immigration, supposedly the cornerstone of the administration's political identity, fell six points to net negative 15. Morris connects this to fallout from ICE enforcement operations, including the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. And on prices and inflation -- the issue voters themselves rank as their top concern by a wide margin -- Trump hit a new low of net negative 35.
Voters in our survey named prices as their top concern by a wide margin — 32% called it the most important problem facing the country — and they're giving the president his lowest marks on the thing they care about most.
That combination is politically toxic: the public's number one issue is also the president's worst-performing metric.
A Government Spending Money on the Wrong Things
Morris asked respondents how they would allocate a hypothetical 75 billion dollars. The results paint a picture of an electorate whose priorities bear almost no resemblance to the administration's agenda. Reducing grocery and housing costs drew 31 percent. Health care took 21 percent. Social Security came in at 13 percent.
Immigration enforcement and deportations? Five percent.
Add up the top three "kitchen table" items — groceries, health care, and Social Security — and you get 65%.
The contrast is pointed. The federal government was, at the time of the survey, shut down over an 11 billion dollar dispute about ICE funding -- a policy area that only 5 percent of Americans would prioritize with discretionary money. Morris frames this as a question of mismatched priorities, and the data backs him up.
69% of voters think Trump is focusing too much on deportations and not enough on inflation and the economy.
It is worth noting, however, that spending-priority questions can be misleading. Immigration enforcement is the kind of issue where a relatively small share of voters rank it first, but a much larger share considers it important. The five percent figure captures top priority, not overall salience. That said, the gap between five percent and thirty-one percent is wide enough to be meaningful regardless of how the question is framed.
Party Trust Has Flipped
Perhaps the most consequential finding in the poll is the shift in issue trust. Democrats now lead on trust to handle every issue that ranks at 10 percent or above as most important. That includes prices and inflation (Democrats plus 8), jobs and the economy (Democrats plus 7), and health care (Democrats plus 22).
Republicans still hold leads on border security (plus 15), immigration (plus 3), crime (plus 3), and deportations (plus 2). But those last three are within the margin of error and shrinking fast. Morris notes that the Republican lead on deportation trust dropped from seven points in January to two in February. On crime, it halved from six to three.
The president goes into his SOTU address with extreme headwinds. He will have to make major changes to dig himself out of this hole.
The erosion is happening precisely where the administration has invested the most political capital. If enforcement-heavy policies on immigration cannot hold the Republican advantage on immigration trust, the strategic logic of the entire second term comes into question.
Bottom Line
Morris's February poll captures a presidency in a deepening trough. The data is unambiguous on the topline: 37 percent approval, no positive issues, a 10-point generic ballot deficit, and an electorate that wants its government focused on kitchen-table economics rather than immigration enforcement. The direction of travel -- every metric either flat or declining from January -- suggests this is not a momentary dip but a sustained slide.
The State of the Union address offered Trump a prime-time stage to reset the narrative. Vice President JD Vance previewed a speech focused on reshoring manufacturing, creating jobs, and cutting energy prices. Whether that pivot can arrest the bleeding depends on whether voters see policy substance or just messaging. At 37 percent approval, the gap between what the administration says it is doing and what the public believes it is doing has rarely been wider.