Ray Carpenter doesn't just ask where the plays went; he proves they vanished through a decade of data that most fans never see. While casual observers blame longer commercials or defensive stalling, Carpenter's analysis of NFL play-by-play logs reveals a quiet, structural shift: the league is averaging ten fewer plays per game than it did ten years ago, a decline that fundamentally alters the rhythm of the sport.
The Vanishing Play
Carpenter anchors his argument in a startling statistic from Michael Lopez, the NFL's head of data, noting that "the NFL is averaging 10 fewer plays per game than it did a decade ago." This isn't a minor fluctuation; it represents a significant reduction in the sample size available for analysis and a tangible change in the viewer experience. Carpenter writes, "Fewer plays complicates data analyses slightly by reducing sample size," but the real issue is the erosion of the game's core product. The data shows the league average dropped to 61.5 plays per game in the 2025-26 season, the lowest since 1999. This is a stark contrast to the 2013 peak, which saw 65.2 plays per game.
The author's methodology is rigorous, filtering out penalties, punts, and kickoffs to isolate true offensive snaps. He notes that when special teams and penalties are included, the trend line becomes even more pronounced, with the 2025 total of 165.7 plays per game trailing the 2013 high of 175.4. This isn't just about one bad season; it's a downward trajectory. Carpenter observes, "The league's worst offenses were playing at a fast tempo but didn't have a lot of plays per game. This just means they didn't see the field too often, and when they did see the field, they were trailing and had to do a lot with a little." This distinction is crucial—it suggests that the decline isn't solely due to teams playing slower, but because the game itself is producing fewer opportunities.
"It's death by a thousand cuts. There's no specific thing we can point to... that is the one reason why we have fewer plays than we did ten years ago."
The Mechanics of Slowness
To understand why the game has slowed, Carpenter dissects the timing of the plays themselves. He introduces a metric called "Seconds Per Play," revealing that modern offenses are taking longer to execute. "Over 60 plays, the 2025 seconds per play pace can eat up 2 more precious game clock minutes than the 2013 pace would." This accumulation of seconds adds up, turning a fast-paced game into a marathon of waiting. Carpenter's analysis of the play clock is particularly revealing. By filtering for specific, clean plays, he found that "2025 was the first season in the dataset that had a number slightly below 8 seconds" remaining on the clock for standard plays. This suggests that offenses are using more of the allotted time, likely due to increased complexity.
Carpenter hypothesizes that the "passing renaissance" of the 2010s, driven by quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, created an outlier era of high play volume. "Maybe we experienced a passing renaissance... and those are actually outlier years," he suggests. With fewer pass attempts today, there are fewer incomplete passes, which historically stopped the clock and generated more plays. Furthermore, the game has become more efficient in a way that reduces volume: "There are fewer turnovers now than there were back then... Fewer turnovers means fewer drives, which means fewer plays." The reduction in fumbles and interceptions, while a positive for player safety and game flow in some respects, has inadvertently cut down the total number of offensive possessions.
A counterargument worth considering is that the increase in pre-snap motion, which Carpenter notes has risen since 2019, should theoretically speed up the game or at least keep it constant. However, Carpenter points out that "more motion doesn't relate to more play clock used though," suggesting that the complexity of the reads and the time taken to process the defense is outweighing any tempo benefits. The game is getting smarter, and that intelligence comes at the cost of speed. "It's taking longer for a play caller to decide which play to call, and also taking longer for quarterbacks to read the defense," Carpenter explains. This "death by a thousand cuts" of small delays is reshaping the NFL.
The Data Gap
Despite the depth of his analysis, Carpenter acknowledges the limitations of publicly available data. He laments that crucial metrics like "huddle break times and play clock snap times" are either paywalled or non-existent for the public. He references a tweet by Deniz Selman about the Eagles snapping the ball with five or fewer seconds on the clock, noting that such granular data is often hidden behind proprietary models. "I would be very grateful" if anyone had a lead on obtaining this data, Carpenter writes, highlighting a significant blind spot in the current understanding of pace. The inability to measure the exact time it takes to break a huddle or the delay between the referee's whistle and the snap means we are only seeing part of the picture. This lack of transparency makes it difficult to pinpoint the exact moment the game slowed down.
Carpenter also touches on the potential impact of rule changes, such as the dynamic kickoff and the proposed rule to display tenths of seconds on the play clock. While these changes aim to improve the game, their effects on overall play volume remain inconclusive in the current data. "The dynamic kickoff was also researched... and those results were inconclusive too," he admits. This uncertainty underscores the complexity of the issue; it's not a simple fix, but a multifaceted evolution of the sport.
Bottom Line
Ray Carpenter's piece is a masterclass in using data to uncover a slow-moving crisis in the NFL. His strongest argument is the identification of the "death by a thousand cuts" phenomenon, where a combination of fewer turnovers, reduced passing volume, and increased play-calling complexity has silently eroded the number of plays in a game. The biggest vulnerability, however, is the reliance on incomplete data; without access to huddle times and precise snap clocks, the full story of the game's slowdown remains partially obscured. As the league continues to evolve, the question isn't just where the plays went, but whether the NFL can reverse a trend that is fundamentally changing the nature of its product.