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Why net zero isn't working

Forget everything you think you know about climate progress. Dave Borlace exposes how the very solutions sold as saving us are actively prolonging fossil fuel dominance—a revelation buried under glossy corporate pledges and political theater. His evidence isn’t speculation; it’s a forensic audit of 48 real-world projects where renewables and carbon tech aren’t replacing oil rigs but powering them.

The One Question That Changes Everything

Dave Borlace writes, "For any proposed climate solution, we just need to ask one simple question. Will that proposal result in a genuine real world reduction in fossil fuel production and combustion, or will it facilitate its continued use?" This cuts through decades of obfuscation. The Barcelona/Sussex research team proves how offshore wind in Norway isn’t displacing oil—it’s electrifying extraction rigs, locking in decades more drilling. Similarly, Shell and BP secured North Sea oil licenses on wind-dedicated seabed, weaponizing renewables to decarbonize extraction. The core insight is devastatingly simple: projects touting "emissions per barrel" reductions often enable more total barrels burned. This lands because it reframes the entire climate debate—from counting carbon to tracking fossil fuel expansion. Critics might note that transitional technologies like carbon capture have legitimate niche uses, but Borlace rightly stresses their strategic deployment: as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Canada deal shows, CCS becomes a Trojan horse for new pipelines when it’s used to justify increased production.

"A horrible tradeoff from a climate perspective... those barrels are going to be burned and the climate impacts... are going to outweigh any gains."

False Solutions, Real Consequences

Borlace masterfully connects infrastructure lock-in to human cost. He reveals how carbon capture projects extend the life of polluting facilities near vulnerable communities, exposing them to CO2 pipeline risks and groundwater contamination—while global "benefits" remain abstract accounting tricks. This isn’t theoretical: since Gold Standard’s 2019 credibility crisis, carbon offsets have become corporate fig leaves, letting data centers and new oil projects claim climate virtue via dubious tree-planting schemes. As Borlace puts it, "Offsets simply become a way of postponing real action... from the climate’s point of view, it’s an absolute cluster catastrophe." His evidence holds up because it’s rooted in material outcomes, not promises. Yet he overlooks how political realities—like energy security fears post-2022—create pressure for these compromises, making pure idealism impractical. Still, his dissection of hydrogen’s role is razor-sharp: repurposing gas pipelines as "hydrogen-ready" isn’t innovation; it’s fossil lobbying disguised as transition, risking methane amplification when hydrogen leaks.

Why net zero isn't working

The PR Machine Exposed

The most chilling evidence comes from corporate emails unearthed in a U.S. congressional probe. Dave Borlace quotes BP directly: "Sponsored content advertising is a powerful way to reach an audience focused on specific issues... to push our messages directly to Washington DC elites who set and influence energy policy." This confirms a coordinated strategy: tiny green investments buy massive legitimacy. Borlace argues fossil giants aren’t just greenwashing—they’re preempting regulation by convincing policymakers they’re part of the solution. It’s a brilliant reframing of "net zero" pledges as survival tactics, not commitments. The historical parallel to Delhi’s 2019 smog towers—expensive distractions from systemic pollution—shows how this playbook repeats: shiny tech substitutes for hard choices. His commentary on Jeff Dembiki’s DMOG investigations lands because it proves this isn’t rogue actors but industry doctrine.

Bottom Line

Borlace’s greatest strength is exposing the renewables-fossil fuel symbiosis—a truth most climate coverage avoids. His biggest vulnerability? Underplaying how possible it is to deploy wind/solar without enabling extraction (e.g., community-owned grids). Watch for whether COP30 forces fossil majors to abandon "net zero" pledges that greenlight new drilling.

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Why net zero isn't working

by Dave Borlace · Just Have a Think · Watch video

If you've been paying even casual attention to energy news over the past year or so, you will no doubt have noticed that a number of major fossil fuel companies have been quietly, in some cases not so quietly, pivoting away from renewables, clean energy ventures, and lowcarbon side projects and back to what they still see as their core mission to expand oil and gas exploration and production. That shift hasn't happened in a vacuum, of course. It's been encouraged by a political and economic environment that once again prioritizes energy security, domestic production, and short-term affordability almost always at the expense of long-term climate goals. So, if you're thinking, "Hang on, aren't these the same companies that were talking about becoming energy transition leaders just a few years ago," you're not wrong.

And yet, despite this very visible retrenchment, the public relations language of apparent climate responsibility is still chertering away. Fossil fuel companies still talk about reaching net zero, at least within their own operations anyway. Banks still publish glossy transition plans, and governments still announce vast new investments in clean energy. Well, not all governments, but most anyway.

In fact, in some ways, the rhetoric has only intensified. The trouble with all this stuff is that for most people, it's very difficult to pin down what the reality is, isn't it? Claims are made very confidently, often using technical language. And unless you've got the time and data to hand, it's hard to know what's real progress and what's just PR BS.

There are, of course, some brilliant websites that analyze and debunk some of the worst nonsense that we're subjected to nowadays, and they're all well worth a visit. And now there's a new research paper that's gone to the trouble of assembling all the evidence in one place. And when you look at it all together, all the technologies, the infrastructure, the finance, and the outcomes, it makes for some fairly unsettling reading. Because what this research suggests is that many of the climate solutions being promoted today may not be accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels at all.

They might not even be simply ineffective or even neutral. They may actually be deliberately designed to keep us all well and truly entrenched in the current energy monopoly for decades to come. Hello and welcome to Just Have a Think. The paper I'm ...