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Good news: Progressive advocacy groups have been found not guilty by a progressive advocacy group

Jesse Singal delivers a scathing indictment of a self-referential political ecosystem, arguing that a new report from the donor collaborative Way to Win is less a strategic roadmap and more a piece of motivated reasoning designed to absolve progressive groups of any responsibility for recent electoral failures. The piece's most provocative claim is that the report's central thesis—that Democrats need not moderate on any issue—is a convenient delusion that ignores the lived realities of voters in favor of the echo-chamber logic of elite social media. This is not just a critique of one document; it is a warning about how professional advocacy can become disconnected from the very people it claims to represent.

The Trap of "Inclusive Populism"

Singal opens by dismantling the report's definition of political strength, noting that it relies on a vague, Supreme Court-style standard: "you know it when you see it." He argues that the document's proposed solution, "inclusive populism," is a rhetorical sleight of hand that refuses to acknowledge the complexity of voter concerns. As Singal writes, "This document is useful less as a strategy blueprint and more as an example of a delusional — and condescending — mindset that has unfortunately taken hold among a subset of professional progressives."

Good news: Progressive advocacy groups have been found not guilty by a progressive advocacy group

The core of Singal's argument is that Way to Win's strategy relies on a binary choice that doesn't exist in the real world: attributing all voter anxiety to economic inequality while dismissing concerns about immigration or cultural shifts as mere distractions. He points out the absurdity of telling a voter in a border county that their primary problem is actually the wealthy class, not the influx of migrants. "The idea that some expert can swing your views on this by simply telling you a version of 'Don't wealthy people take too much from us? Aren't they the real problem, not immigrants?' is Bluesky logic," Singal observes. This framing, he suggests, is a form of intellectual insulation that protects donors and activists from having to confront difficult truths.

Critics might argue that economic messaging is the only viable path for the left, but Singal counters that this approach fails to account for the fact that voters often hold contradictory views. He notes that while people may agree the system is rigged, they also frequently hold positive views of major corporations like Amazon, complicating the "evil oligarch" narrative. The report's reliance on a forced-choice survey question, where respondents must choose between a left-leaning economic frame and a right-leaning cultural frame, is dismissed by Singal as statistically meaningless. "THIS DOESN'T TELL US ANYTHING," he writes, emphasizing that the result merely confirms that the sample group was already predisposed to the left's framing.

"It is the laziest, most transparent attempt at derailing."

The Border and the Misinformation Coping Mechanism

The commentary shifts to the report's treatment of the border crisis, which Singal characterizes as a masterclass in denial. He contrasts the report's silence with the documented reality of the Biden administration's policy choices, which experts warned in late 2020 would lead to a surge in crossings. Singal highlights a New York Times investigation noting that advisers "threatened to drastically increase border crossings... experts advising his transition team warned in a Zoom briefing in the final weeks of 2020."

Rather than engaging with this evidence, Singal argues, the Way to Win report pretends the crisis never happened. He draws a sharp parallel to the concept of "I know it when I see it," suggesting that the report's authors are using a similar subjective standard to ignore objective political failures. "To say so is to simply be in touch with reality," Singal asserts regarding the border surge, "It does not mean you lack sympathy for the migrants in question or prefer Trump's monstrous and fearmongering approach." Instead, he argues that a healthy movement would acknowledge the policy missteps to prevent future crises, rather than using the threat of misinformation as a shield against criticism.

Singal suggests this behavior mirrors a broader pattern where groups avoid difficult conversations by labeling them as the domain of bad actors. He notes that while misinformation is a genuine problem, using it as a "crutch" to avoid discussing the border is a strategic failure. The report's approach, he implies, is akin to the logic seen in The Sopranos, where characters like Paulie Gualtieri take "full responsibility" while simultaneously insisting they "didn't do nothin'"—a convenient way to accept blame without actually changing behavior. This disconnect between the report's conclusions and the political reality on the ground is, for Singal, the most dangerous aspect of the document.

Bottom Line

Singal's strongest contribution is his exposure of how internal group dynamics can distort strategic analysis, turning a post-mortem of an election loss into a self-congratulatory affirmation of existing biases. His argument is most vulnerable where it assumes that voters are purely rational actors who would reject "Bluesky logic" if presented with facts, potentially underestimating the emotional resonance of cultural messaging. The reader should watch for whether the Democratic coalition can eventually break free from these echo chambers or if they will continue to rely on strategies that flatter the elite rather than persuade the electorate.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Motivated reasoning

    The article's central thesis is that Way to Win produced a self-serving report that confirms their priors rather than objectively analyzing why Democrats lost. Understanding motivated reasoning - the cognitive bias where people process information in ways that support their existing beliefs - directly illuminates why advocacy groups might produce research that flatters their donors and methods.

  • The Sopranos

    The article opens with a quote from Silvio Dante to Tony Soprano about taking responsibility while denying wrongdoing - a perfect metaphor for the report's stance. Understanding this iconic HBO series and its themes of denial, self-deception, and organized corruption provides rich context for the author's framing.

  • I know it when I see it

    The article directly references the Supreme Court's 'you know it when you see it' approach when discussing the report's vague definition of 'strength.' This phrase comes from Justice Potter Stewart's 1964 concurrence on obscenity - understanding its origin and legal context illuminates why the author finds the report's definitional vagueness problematic.

Sources

Good news: Progressive advocacy groups have been found not guilty by a progressive advocacy group

by Jesse Singal · · Read full article

“Paulie said he wants it known: It’s on him, he takes full responsibility, but that he didn’t do nothin.’ ” —Silvio Dante telling Tony Soprano about a major blunder

Do you want Democrats to win and Republicans to lose? If so, you might be curious about a new report from a group called Way to Win, which bills itself as “a donor collaborative that invests in data-driven strategies to fund new media and grassroots efforts to win long-term political change.” “Towards Strength: Way to Win Post-2024 Research Summary” contains some supposedly important news for Democrats and those who want them to win elections in the future: According to The New Republic (which got exclusive access to an early copy), the report reveals “the Real Reason Democrats Lost in 2024.”

Let me go ahead and spoil that part immediately. Most of the report’s arguments about why Harris lost consist of what is now the conventional wisdom: Kamala Harris didn’t have a clear message, she didn’t present herself as a “change” candidate during a “change” election, and so on. (As the authors note, she couldn’t name a single thing she’d have done differently from Joe Biden, the flailing and unpopular incumbent to whom she was tethered.) All true, but all well-trod terrain. Even the document’s working definition of “strength,” a word that appears in its very title, doesn’t really say much that’s new: “What exactly is strength? As the Supreme Court’s famous approach would suggest: ‘you know it when you see it.’ But as a working definition: political strength is making decisions based on core values and principles, explaining choices with clear and persuasive arguments, drawing a contrast with one’s opponents, and making it clear why your approach is the better one.”

What are those core values and principles? What are those arguments? This is where things go off the rails. This document is useful less as a strategy blueprint and more as an example of a delusional — and condescending — mindset that has unfortunately taken hold among a subset of professional progressives.

Let’s Get Inclusive and Populist.

According to Way to Win, there’s no need for Democrats to moderate on any hot-button issue, and in fact doing so could only help Trump. There’s a better way: “inclusive populism,” a messaging strategy that focuses on the true causes of voters’ ills — parasitic rich people and the Republican policies that coddle ...