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How the deep state really works

Then & Now makes a startling pivot: treating the "deep state" not as a conspiracy theory, but as a historical constant where unelected networks quietly steer policy regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. The author's most compelling evidence isn't a secret document, but a 2014 study showing average voter preferences have "minuscule, almost nonzero" impact on public policy. This reframes the term from a political slur into a diagnostic tool for understanding why democracies often feel unresponsive to their citizens.

The Historical Mirror

The piece begins by dismantling the idea that the deep state is a modern American invention. Then & Now writes, "Actually, everywhere we look in history, a kind of deep state stares back at us, asking posing a simple question. Who is really pulling the strings?" By tracing this dynamic from the aristocratic councils of ancient Athens to the Praetorian Guard in Rome, the author establishes a pattern: formal democracy often masks a deeper, unaccountable layer of power. This historical lens is effective because it removes the partisan sting, suggesting the phenomenon is structural rather than ideological.

How the deep state really works

The author argues that the term has gained traction not because of paranoia, but because of a measurable erosion of trust. Citing a 2018 Monmouth University poll, the commentary notes that while few Americans know the term "deep state," nearly three-quarters believe in the existence of unelected officials manipulating national policy once the concept is explained. This suggests the public is reacting to a reality they can feel but struggle to name. Critics might argue that conflating historical court intrigues with modern bureaucratic inertia risks oversimplifying complex governance, yet the parallel remains striking.

"If you have layers of democracy at the front... what's going on in the deeper layers? What's accountable can be accounted for? And what importantly is unaccountable?"

The Architecture of Influence

Moving to the modern United States, the author leans heavily on the analysis of Mike Lofgren, a retired congressional aide. Then & Now writes, "There is the visible United States government... And there is another more shadowy and indefinable government that is not explained in civics 101." Lofgren's metaphor of the iceberg is central here: the elected officials are merely the tip, while the subsurface part operates on its own compass heading. This distinction is crucial because it explains why presidents often flip-flop on policy once they enter office.

The commentary highlights the "nodes" of this system: the military-industrial complex, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the intelligence community. These groups are described not as a monolith, but as a network jockeying for proximity to power. The author notes that defense contractors have moved their headquarters to Washington, creating a culture where "ads in the city's metro system [sell] a fighter plane." This vivid detail underscores how deeply embedded these interests are in the daily fabric of the capital.

A counterargument worth considering is that this view underestimates the ability of elected officials to push back against these forces; history shows presidents can and do defy the bureaucracy. However, the author counters this by pointing to the "revolving door" where top officials move seamlessly between government and the industries they regulate, creating a shared incentive structure that is hard to break.

The Military-Industrial Machine

The most detailed section focuses on the military-industrial complex, tracing its roots to President Eisenhower's 1961 warning. Then & Now writes, "The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." The author argues that Eisenhower's warning has become prophetic, with the US now maintaining nearly 600 military bases in over 40 countries. The scale of this operation creates a self-perpetuating cycle where the incentives for war and expansion are baked into the economy.

The piece illustrates this with the example of President Obama, who entered office promising to close Guantanamo Bay and scale back wars, only to become a "drone commander in chief." Then & Now puts it bluntly: "The military-industrial complex... took Obama to school." The argument is that incoming leaders are "literally a captive of the people who briefed them on secret intelligence," forced to accept the worldview of the permanent security apparatus. This is a sobering take on the limits of democratic change.

The author also points to the sheer opacity of this system, noting that there are over a million contractors with top-secret clearances. How can Congress oversee 3 million people making decisions based on secret information? The answer, the author suggests, is that they can't. This unaccountability is the defining feature of the deep state.

"Obama, like any other president, was literally a captive of the people who briefed him on secret intelligence."

Bottom Line

Then & Now's strongest move is shifting the debate from "does the deep state exist?" to "how does it function?" by grounding the argument in historical precedent and the specific mechanics of the military-industrial complex. The piece's biggest vulnerability is its tendency to present this system as an unstoppable force, potentially downplaying the moments where public pressure has successfully disrupted these networks. Readers should watch for how future administrations attempt to navigate this entrenched architecture without being consumed by it.

Sources

How the deep state really works

by Then & Now · Then & Now · Watch video

when you are subverting the power of government. That's a fundamentally dangerous thing. You're probably one of two people. Either you believe in some kind of shadow government or you laugh at those that do.

I used to be one of the latter, but I decided I wanted to take the idea of the deep state seriously. And what I uncovered really surprised me. patriots who every day come to work saying, "How can we defend this country and protect our civil liberties and privacy?" Let's really think about every node of the deep state through a simple lens. Either it's democratic or it's unaccountable, hidden under deep layers, peddling influence, weapons, money, controlling democracy maybe from behind the scenes.

And doing so tells us a lot about democracy itself and what we should be doing about it. Because in some way every historical period and every nation have had some form of deep state. Even in a direct democracy like ancient Athens, legislation put forward for citizens to vote on was decided by the bull behind the scenes. And historians have found that the bull or council was dominated by the aristocracy.

During the Roman Empire, the Ptorian guard often became kingmakers. Behind the scenes, too. Emperor Pertinax was assassinated by the guard after just two months in power because he'd attempted to curtail their influence. Behind countless king's courts, powerful baronss, nobles, elites quietly conspired to influence laws dominate the court or occasionally overthrow monarchs entirely.

Japanese imperial military deep states in Manuria or within the army of the Ottoman Empire. Global fruit corporations dominating entire banana republics, determining policy and overthrowing democratically elected governments, FBI dossier intended to blackmail democratically elected officials, British intelligence undermining leftist Prime Minister Harold Wilson, Russian oligarchs, globalist institutions, corporate backroom threats and deals. Actually, everywhere we look in history, a kind of deep state stares back at us, asking posing a simple question. Who is really pulling the strings?

I want to lay out something not conspiratorial but quite simple. If you have layers of democracy at the front, the ballot, legislation, parliamentary debate, executive orders, judicial process, law, a public opinion, polling and so on. What's going on in the deeper layers? What's accountable can be accounted for?

And what importantly is unaccountable? Because, and this is a crucial point, the very influential 2014 study of 1,700 policy decisions found ...