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Weekly dose of optimism #170

Packy McCormick reframes the current technological landscape not as a race for market dominance, but as a desperate and necessary return to the golden age of scientific infrastructure. While the media cycle often fixates on the friction of the moment, McCormick argues that the real story is the emergence of a new generation of builders who are bypassing broken academic and venture capital models to solve existential problems like flooding, energy scarcity, and space travel. This is not a list of startups; it is a blueprint for a new industrial era where the factory itself is the product and the goal is simply to make the world a better place.

The Death of the Grant and the Rise of the Modern Bell Labs

McCormick identifies a critical fracture in how science is currently funded, noting that the traditional path forces brilliant minds into bureaucratic loops rather than discovery. He points to Episteme, a new organization backed by heavyweights like Sam Altman and Masayoshi Son, as the potential cure. "Many of the world's brightest minds in academia spend most of their time writing grants, managing bureaucratic overhead and publishing papers instead of pursuing their real work," McCormick writes, quoting Ashlee Vance. This observation cuts to the core of why innovation has stagnated in certain sectors; the system rewards publication over product.

Weekly dose of optimism #170

The proposed solution is a return to the model of Bell Labs or Xerox PARC, institutions that once operated with the financial freedom to pursue long-term, high-risk ideas without immediate commercial pressure. McCormick notes that while Google is the closest modern equivalent, the current landscape requires a new approach adapted for today's scientific milieu. "It's AI, energy, materials, novel battery systems and new kinds of superconductors. It's inspired by Bell Labs or Xerox PARC but adapted for today's scientific milieu," says Priyamvada Natarajan, an advisor to the new venture. The argument here is compelling because it addresses the root cause of the "valley of death" for deep tech: the lack of patient capital that allows for the kind of fundamental research that produced the transistor and the laser.

Critics might argue that private capital, even at this scale, cannot replicate the open, non-competitive environment of mid-century government-funded research. However, McCormick suggests that the market is finally recognizing that the current system is cracking, creating an opportunity for those willing to build a better alternative. The model of providing competitive salaries and equity to eliminate fundraising pressures is a direct response to the inefficiencies of the grant cycle.

The current system for doing science is cracking, which opens up a opportunity for people to try to come in and do it better.

Engineering the Physical World

Moving from the abstract to the concrete, McCormick highlights how new technologies are being applied to the most tangible of human problems: the rising water. He profiles Terranova, a company using autonomous robots to inject wood slurry underground to lift cities out of flood zones. This is a stark contrast to the traditional, expensive method of building seawalls. "We are lifting cities out of flood zones using underground injection," says Laurence Allen, the CEO of Terranova. The scale of the problem is immense, with flooding causing nearly $100 billion in economic damage annually, yet the solution offered is surprisingly elegant and cost-effective.

McCormick draws a parallel to the concept of subsidence, a historical challenge where land slowly sinks, often exacerbated by groundwater extraction. By using AI-powered software to simulate projects before deployment, Terranova aims to provide a permanent solution for areas like San Rafael, California, where neighborhoods have dropped nearly a meter. The argument is that technology can now offer a proactive, rather than reactive, defense against climate change. "The company claims it can lift 240 acres by four feet for approximately $92 million, a fraction of traditional solutions like seawalls (which can cost up to $900 million)," McCormick notes. This efficiency is what makes the optimism credible; it is not just about having the technology, but about having the economic viability to deploy it at scale.

Similarly, the piece celebrates the resurgence of nuclear energy through startups like Valar Atomics. McCormick highlights the ambitious timeline of founder Isaiah Taylor, who aims to demonstrate a 100 kilowatt reactor by July 4, 2026. "There are only really three pillars to anything around us, as far as consumable goods. We've got energy, intelligence, and dexterity," Taylor is quoted as saying. This framing elevates the discussion from mere engineering to a fundamental restructuring of civilization's needs. The backing from figures like Palmer Luckey suggests a shift in investor sentiment toward hard infrastructure.

The Factory as the Product

Perhaps the most striking argument in the piece is the shift in focus from the product to the manufacturing process itself. McCormick observes that Elon Musk is not just building rockets or cars, but is constructing the factories that produce them. "That's our GigaBay. So we're expanding integration to produce 1,000 Starships per year. Well, yeah, that hasn't been built yet but we're building it," McCormick quotes, highlighting the sheer audacity of the goal. The construction of the GigaBay in Texas, designed to produce three Starships a day by the end of the decade, represents a level of vertical integration that challenges the dominance of Chinese battery manufacturing.

The commentary notes that while China still dominates cell production, with CATL producing a stunning 37.9% of the world's EV batteries, the US is fighting back with massive investments in assembly and cell production. "After negotiations with TSMC over supply terms faltered, Musk doubled down on in-house production capabilities to reduce dependence on external suppliers," McCormick writes. This move toward self-sufficiency is a strategic response to geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragility. The argument is that the ability to manufacture at scale is the new competitive moat.

Say what you want, this man is working hard for his trillions.

The piece also celebrates the success of Blue Origin, noting that Jeff Bezos' company has successfully landed a New Glenn booster. This is a crucial development for the argument of competition driving down costs. "Landing a booster is obviously awesome, but for launch to get truly affordable, there's nothing like a little competition," McCormick argues. The success of multiple players in the orbital launch market suggests that the era of monopoly in space access is ending, paving the way for a more diverse and affordable ecosystem.

Global Leapfrogging and the Solar Revolution

Finally, McCormick turns his attention to Africa, where the convergence of cheap hardware, mobile money, and credit scoring has unlocked a solar revolution. The argument here is that the unit economics of grid extension were simply broken, and decentralized solar is the only viable path forward. "Here's a stat that should make you angry: 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack reliable electricity. Not because the technology doesn't exist. Not because they don't want it. But because the unit economics of grid extension to rural areas are completely, utterly, irredeemably f*cked," McCormick quotes from Skander Garroum.

This is a powerful reframing of the development narrative. Instead of waiting for massive infrastructure projects that may never come, communities are leapfrogging the grid entirely. The full-stack execution of these solar companies, which includes financing and distribution, creates a moat that is difficult for new entrants to breach. "This creates massive barriers to entry and long-term moats. New entrants can't just show up with cheaper panels. The moat is the full-stack execution," McCormick writes. The optimism here is grounded in the reality that the technology is ready, the economics have flipped, and the market is finally moving.

Bottom Line

McCormick's strongest argument is that the bottleneck for human progress is no longer technological possibility, but rather the organizational and financial structures that support it. By highlighting the rise of new research labs, the engineering of physical defenses against climate change, and the radical scaling of manufacturing, the piece makes a compelling case for a new era of optimism. The biggest vulnerability, however, is the assumption that private capital can fully replace the role of public investment in basic research, a tension that remains unresolved. Readers should watch closely to see if these ambitious timelines and massive capital deployments can translate into the sustained, systemic change they promise. The world is watching to see if the builders can indeed make it better.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Bell Labs

    The article extensively discusses Episteme as a modern Bell Labs, mentioning transistors, Unix, C programming, Information Theory, and lasers as Bell Labs inventions. Understanding Bell Labs' unique structure and prolific output provides essential context for evaluating whether Episteme can replicate this model.

  • Subsidence

    Terranova's core technology addresses subsidence by lifting cities through underground injection. Understanding the geological phenomenon of land subsidence—its causes, global prevalence, and why traditional solutions fail—illuminates why this startup's approach is novel.

  • Small modular reactor

    Valar Atomics is building small modular reactors for AI data centers. This Wikipedia article explains the technology class, regulatory landscape, and why SMRs represent a different approach to nuclear power than traditional large plants.

Sources

Weekly dose of optimism #170

by Packy McCormick · Not Boring · Read full article

Hi friends,

Happy Friday!

Pope Leo XIV, the American Pope, the Villanova University graduate, the White Sox fan, blessed the timeline with a number of tech-related tweets this week, including this one, which asks entrepreneurs to ask, “How are we making the world a better place?”

That phrase - “making the world a better place” - has become a trope, often used ironically in association with gambling apps and infinite scroll feeds. But there are a ton of entrepreneurs and scientists doing just that, and our job here at the Weekly Dose is to be the communicators who spread that good word. This week, for example, we have a startup trying to save cities from floods, a new lab to fund ambitious research, funding for cheap, safe, abundant energy, factories for batteries and rockets that might transport humans to other worlds, a Blue Origin booster landing, and solar in Africa.

We need to get Pope Leo subscribed to the Dose.

Let’s get to it.

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(1) Altman And Masa Back a 27-Year-Old’s Plan to Build a New Bell Labs Ultra

From Ashlee Vance for Core Memory

“It’s a broad range of disciplines,” said Priyamvada Natarajan, the chair of the Department of Astronomy at Yale and an advisor to Episteme. “It’s AI, energy, materials, novel battery systems and new kinds of superconductors. It’s inspired by Bell Labs or Xerox PARC but adapted for today’s scientific milieu. I think that’s what makes it a new kind of accelerator.”

One of the things that people in tech call for most often, second only to Manhattan Projects for X, is a modern version of Bell Labs or Xerox PARC, those talent-dense corporate research labs that invented the transistor, Unix, solar panels, the C programming language, Information Theory, the laser, the graphical user interface, ethernet, laser printing, object-oriented programming, and much much more.

Part of the challenge, though, is that doing it really well requires an infinite cash machine, like a telephone or printer monopoly, ...