Most political analysis treats New Jersey as a settled blue state, a reliable donor to the Democratic coalition. Eli McKown-Dawson challenges this complacency by revealing that the 2024 election saw the Garden State experience the second-largest swing toward Republicans in the nation, a shift so profound it threatens to dismantle the traditional electoral map. This isn't just about a bad polling cycle; it is a structural realignment where the demographics that once anchored the Democratic Party are actively drifting away.
The Anatomy of a Realignment
McKown-Dawson opens by dismantling the assumption that the 2024 results were an anomaly. While the national narrative focused on a solid victory for the former president, the author notes that "Trump improved on his 2020 margin by 10 points" in New Jersey, a shift that would have flipped entire states like Minnesota and Maine if replicated nationally. The data suggests a deep, underlying current rather than a surface ripple. "In fact, New Jersey saw the second-largest swing toward Republicans in the country, behind only neighboring New York," McKown-Dawson writes, highlighting that this is a regional phenomenon rooted in the specific dynamics of the New York metropolitan area.
The core of the argument rests on a dramatic demographic inversion. The author details how the Republican coalition is no longer defined solely by white, non-college-educated voters but is increasingly multiracial and working-class. This is most visible in Passaic County, a place where "Manhattan can feel both close and far away." Historically a Democratic stronghold, the county has flipped from a D+17 margin in 2020 to R+3 in 2024. "The last time a Republican presidential candidate won that county was 1992," McKown-Dawson points out, underscoring the magnitude of this break from the past. This shift is not isolated; it is part of a broader trend where "Trump picked up support among nonwhite residents and maintained his strong edge among voters without college degrees."
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won that county was 1992. It's the same story in Hudson County, the densely-populated Democratic stronghold right across the river from Manhattan.
Critics might argue that focusing on a single election cycle risks mistaking a temporary reaction to national polarization for a permanent realignment. However, the consistency of the shift across diverse counties—from the Hispanic-heavy Union City, which shifted 27 points, to the Asian-American strongholds—suggests a durable change in voter behavior. The author emphasizes that "every NJ county shifted at least somewhat toward Trump between 2020 and 2024," making it difficult to dismiss this as a fluke.
Two Paths to Power
McKown-Dawson identifies two distinct, and potentially contradictory, strategies Republicans could use to cement this new reality. The first is expanding the current coalition of nonwhite working-class voters. The second involves a return to the 2021 gubernatorial model, where Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli performed well by courting white, college-educated suburbanites. "Ciattarelli's coalition in 2021 was whiter and more highly educated than Trump's in 2024," the author explains, noting that Ciattarelli outperformed the former president in the most educated counties like Hunterdon and Morris.
The tension between these two paths creates a strategic dilemma for the GOP. To win New Jersey, Republicans would need to combine Ciattarelli's suburban appeal with Trump's gains in the working-class, multiracial urban centers. "If Ciattarelli had combined his solid suburban numbers with Trump's margins in Essex, Middlesex, Passaic and Hudson counties... it would have reduced Phil Murphy's margin to just 1.3 points," McKown-Dawson calculates. Yet, achieving this synthesis is fraught with difficulty. The author observes that "Democrats' improvement with white college-educated voters has come at the expense of their performance among working-class Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters," creating a zero-sum game where gains for one side are losses for the other.
The Upcoming Test
The 2025 gubernatorial race between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli serves as the ultimate stress test for these theories. Ciattarelli is attempting to thread a needle that few politicians have successfully navigated: maintaining the support of a base that has grown increasingly skeptical of establishment norms while avoiding the alienation of the suburban voters who are essential for a statewide win. "He's also invested in outreach to Hispanic voters, even holding a Spanish-language town hall (with a translator), hoping to keep the racial realignment going," McKown-Dawson notes. However, the strategy carries significant risk. "Leaning into Trump too much could turn off the very college-educated voters Ciattarelli did well with in 2021."
The polling data remains volatile, reflecting the uncertainty of this new political landscape. While Sherrill holds a lead, the margin is within the historical error range for New Jersey gubernatorial polls. "There's a fair amount of variation from poll to poll: this week alone, we've seen everything from D+1 to D+10 results," the author writes. This volatility is compounded by the fact that the incumbent party, Democrats, has held the governorship since 2018. "The last time a party won three consecutive terms in the New Jersey governor's mansion was in 1965," McKown-Dawson reminds readers, suggesting that the fatigue of a long incumbency could be as decisive as any demographic shift.
Still, if Ciattarelli wins on Tuesday, reporters en route from New York City to diners in Pennsylvania in 2028 might actually need to get off the Turnpike to see what's going down.
A counterargument worth considering is that the volatility in the polls and the specific challenges of the Sherrill campaign—such as her primary performance and minor scandals—might be temporary hurdles rather than indicators of a fundamental shift. The author acknowledges that "it's going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment" if the race remains this close. However, the underlying demographic trends identified in the piece suggest that even if Ciattarelli loses, the ground beneath New Jersey politics has fundamentally changed.
Bottom Line
Eli McKown-Dawson's strongest contribution is the detailed mapping of how the Republican coalition has successfully fractured the traditional Democratic base in New Jersey's urban and suburban corridors, creating a genuine path to victory that defies historical precedent. The argument's vulnerability lies in the uncertainty of whether this multiracial, working-class realignment can be sustained without the national figurehead of the former president, a question the upcoming gubernatorial election will answer. Readers should watch not just the final margin, but the specific crosstabs in Hispanic and Asian-American counties, as these will determine if New Jersey is merely a swing state in name or a new battleground in reality.