← Back to Library

Explaining the anti-incumbent backlash

Helen De Cruz offers a startling reframing of the 2024 global election results: the anti-incumbent backlash wasn't a sudden spike in American selfishness, but the inevitable biological and social hangover of a pandemic that officials declared over before it actually ended. While most analysis fixates on personality or isolated policy failures, De Cruz argues that the root cause is a fundamental disconnect between the political declaration of "victory" and the lingering reality of a sick, exhausted workforce. This is a vital read for anyone trying to understand why voters are turning toward chaos and far-right movements; it suggests the electorate isn't just angry, but abandoned by a social contract that dissolved the moment the virus became inconvenient to manage.

The Biological Reality vs. Political Fiat

De Cruz begins by dismantling the idea that the pandemic was merely a psychological state that could be wished away. She points out a critical error in governance: "You cannot declare a pandemic over by social fiat." The argument is that while the World Health Organization never officially ended the pandemic, governments simply stopped acting as if it existed. This disconnect had tangible, devastating consequences for the labor market. De Cruz notes that "long-term illness leads many people to leave the workforce and this leads to worker shortages, especially in key groups that are vulnerable to repeat covid infection such as teachers and nurses."

Explaining the anti-incumbent backlash

The author connects this directly to the inflation and supply chain issues that have plagued the economy. By refusing to acknowledge the ongoing biological threat, the administration and other incumbent governments "hamstrung any response to address worker shortages, immigration associated with this, and supply chain issues and its associated inflation that are caused by repeat covid infections." This framing is powerful because it moves the blame from abstract economic theories to a specific, unaddressed health crisis. It echoes the lessons from deep dives into Long COVID, where the data shows that one in three UK healthcare workers now suffers from symptoms, a statistic that explains the systemic strain on essential services. Critics might argue that other factors, such as fiscal stimulus or geopolitical conflicts, played a larger role in inflation, but De Cruz's insistence on the biological undercurrent of economic instability offers a necessary corrective to purely financial explanations.

The Abandonment of Collective Care

The piece takes a sharp turn into the moral economy of the pandemic, contrasting the early, anomalous collective responses with the abrupt return to "everyone for themselves." De Cruz highlights how emergency measures, such as prioritizing homeless and incarcerated people for vaccines and providing universal free school meals, were rolled back once the political need for "normalcy" returned. She writes, "The message the US, and other incumbent governments gave with this was very clear: the pandemic is an anomaly. Business as usual is everyone for themselves."

This shift is presented as a deliberate political choice that eroded trust. The author argues that the mainstream media participated in this erasure by "retrospective demonizing of pandemic measures," reducing complex public health strategies to simple "lockdowns" while ignoring the safety nets that were dismantled. As De Cruz puts it, "They conveniently forget to mention other pandemic measures such as healthcare accessibility and free school lunches to make people think that any collective response to a pandemic is bad." The result, she suggests, was a population that felt materially worse off and socially isolated. This connects to the broader theme of the Great Learning, where the author later contrasts this modern abandonment with ancient philosophies of governance that demanded rulers "love the people" as family. The contrast between the brief moment of collective care and the subsequent withdrawal is the emotional core of her argument.

The people are now not anymore the populace governments have to be concerned about and bear responsibility for. They are now reduced to voters, and voters are powerless except at the ballot box.

The Politics of the Dispensable

Perhaps the most provocative section of De Cruz's commentary is her analysis of how the treatment of the vulnerable has fueled the rise of the far right. She argues that when governments signal that it is acceptable for the disabled and long-term ill to "fall by the wayside," they are effectively endorsing a eugenic logic that far-right parties eagerly exploit. "If you have been telling voters for years that it's okay, indeed even the right thing to do, to trample on the vulnerable in pursuit of your own goals, can it be surprising that people straight out vote for parties that center such a message?" This is a bold claim, linking mask bans and the removal of health protections directly to the political success of parties that center on individualism and exclusion.

De Cruz extends this logic to the climate crisis, noting that incumbent governments have failed to address violent weather events while simultaneously criminalizing protests. In this context, she argues, far-right rhetoric becomes attractive not because it is rational, but because it offers an "illusion of control." Citing Bruno Latour, she suggests that these movements are distinct from historical fascism because their central element is "climate change denial." The promise of a nostalgic past, such as the slogan "take back control," appeals to those who feel powerless against both the virus and the changing climate. De Cruz observes that young men, in particular, are drawn to messages of "individual control, individually getting fit and wealthy," which serve as a pipeline to far-right content. This analysis reframes the far-right not just as a political choice, but as a psychological coping mechanism for a population that has been told it is on its own.

Bottom Line

Helen De Cruz's strongest contribution is her refusal to accept the narrative that voters are simply irrational or hateful; instead, she traces their turn toward chaos to a very rational response to a government that failed to protect them from a biological reality. The argument's greatest vulnerability lies in its tendency to treat the pandemic as the singular root of all current political fractures, potentially underweighting the decades-long erosion of the welfare state that preceded the crisis. However, her synthesis of biological data, economic policy, and moral philosophy provides a compelling, if unsettling, lens through which to view the current global political landscape.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Long COVID

    The article's central argument hinges on long COVID as the underlying cause of workforce shortages, healthcare strain, and economic disruption driving anti-incumbent sentiment. Understanding the medical and social dimensions of this condition is essential context.

  • Operation Warp Speed

    The article explicitly references this program as an example of anomalous collective government response during the pandemic. Readers would benefit from understanding the scale and unprecedented nature of this public-private vaccine development initiative.

  • Great Learning

    The article draws extensively on the Da Xue (Great Learning) to contrast ancient Confucian governance philosophy with modern neoliberal approaches. Understanding this classic text provides crucial context for the author's argument about rulers' obligations to their people.

Sources

Explaining the anti-incumbent backlash

by Helen De Cruz · Helen De Cruz · Read full article

Many explanations of the US election results appeal to special characteristics Americans would have. They would be uniquely selfish, prone to hatred, or especially uneducated. But as John Burn-Murdoch points out, the US follows a well-established pattern among wealthy nations of anti-incumbent backlash. As he writes,

The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters. This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records. (Financial Times)

While Burn-Murdoch points to post-covid changes such as inflation and high immigration, he does not point to the root cause of all these changes, namely the pandemic itself, and how these nations have reacted to it.

Looking at these reactions and subsequent changes can help explain voter sentiment in the following ways:

1. You cannot declare a pandemic over by social fiat.

Many governments simply declared the Covid-19 pandemic over, even as the WHO has not. The problem is, a pandemic is not a psychological state of mind. It's a biological and social phenomenon. Simply declaring it over and resuming normal patterns of social interaction does not stop the unpredictable virus from wreaking havoc.

We are still faced with record levels of long-term illness, and this is so across the developed world. Long-term illness leads many people to leave the workforce and this leads to worker shortages, especially in key groups that are vulnerable to repeat covid infection such as teachers and nurses. News reports make no link to covid (except in terms of “postpandemic”) but if we dig a little deeper into growing medical literature on covid, the data are clear. For example, one in three UK healthcare workers has long covid symptoms. Covid infections also seem to make people more susceptible to other illnesses, heart attacks, strokes, and diabetes, leading to an overall much more ill population.

Incumbent parties tried to regain a feeling of normalcy by massaging people's behavior into pre-pandemic spending patterns. But they were unable to address the structural issues that covid still causes. They were keen to declare victory over the virus (very important for someone like Biden). But declaring victory hamstrung any response to address worker shortages, immigration associated with this, and supply chain issues and its associated inflation that are caused by repeat covid infections.

2. ...