China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Today I'm interviewing Casey Hammer. Casey has worked on a bunch of cool things. Um, Caltech PhD on some gravitational wave black hole gimmick stuff, then Hyperloop, then the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at NASA, and now he is founder and CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey, welcome.

>> Thank you. It's great to be here finally. >> Big picture question I'm interested in to the extent that AI just ends up being this big industrial race. Who can build the most solar panels?

Who can build the most batteries? who can build the most GPUs and um transmission lines and transformers and etc etc. >> This is not what the US is known for at least in recent decades. This is exactly what China is known for right where they have like 20x the amount of yearly solar uh manufacturing the US has.

Obviously we have export controls right now but over time SMIC will catch up to TSMC's leading edge. So what is a story exactly of how the United States wins this? Like why does China just not win by default? >> Do you think that China is better at capital allocation in the United States?

Do you think the Chinese business environment is better for business than in the United States? >> Every first principles argument about these other industries where they're killing it, but like doesn't seem to have hampered BYD. >> Well, people say, "Oh, look, they're so much better at building highspeed trains than the United States." Right. >> Right.

I would never like hold up a flag saying I'm really good at building highspeed trains. Like that is just a sign that you're really bad at capital allocation. Like why would you devote in 2025 so much industrial effort and money, right? They're devoting a lot to solar over capacity which in your opinion is the key to future industrial growth.

>> Accidentally correct. >> They call the most important thing correct, right? Which should account for something. >> Well, they're in a similar situation to Europe, but unlike the United States.

So, the United States is is the luckiest goddamn country on earth because it's surrounded on two sides by oceans and on the other two sides by like friendly allies, right? China is surrounded by 15 countries who are mostly hostile to it, right? with no good like mountain ranges or rivers ...