Dave Borlace cuts through the hype surrounding green hydrogen to ask a question most industry cheerleaders avoid: can Australia actually deliver a clean fuel without replicating the carbon sins of the past? While the narrative often centers on technological optimism, Borlace forces a confrontation with the messy reality of water scarcity, regulatory loopholes, and the fierce global scramble for market dominance. This isn't just a story about Australian ambition; it is a stress test for the entire concept of using hydrogen as a silver bullet for the climate crisis.
The Race for Market Dominance
Borlace frames the Australian government's recent push not merely as an environmental initiative, but as a high-stakes economic maneuver. He highlights the words of Dr. Alan Finkel, Australia's chief scientist, who declared in late 2019, "we are truly at the dawn of a new industry that could contribute to jobs export income energy storage and vitally global emissions reductions." The author notes that this optimism is driven by a specific convergence of factors: a massive drop in solar costs and a desperate need in Japan, which imports 94 percent of its energy, to decarbonize.
However, Borlace is quick to temper this enthusiasm with geopolitical reality. He points out that Australia is not alone in this pursuit, noting that "Norway Brunei and Saudi Arabia are all boosting their credentials as future hydrogen suppliers." The core of his argument here is that the race is not about who has the best science, but who can secure the most favorable trade relationships first. He writes that "this is the time for Australia to stake its claim as a supplier of choice not just to Japan but to other nations like South Korea hungry for a 21st century fuel." This framing is effective because it strips away the altruistic veneer often attached to green energy projects, revealing the hard-nosed capitalism driving the transition.
"Our global economies and industries are currently driven by more or less unchanged capitalism which means all those countries will be working hard to achieve market dominance."
Critics might argue that focusing so heavily on export economics distracts from the urgent need for domestic decarbonization, but Borlace suggests that the regional economic lifeline is a necessary component of the strategy. He cites a report from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency indicating that a new hydrogen industry could provide a "much needed lifeline to many regional communities" by placing facilities near remote renewable energy sources.
The Water and Carbon Paradox
The commentary shifts to the technical and environmental pitfalls that often get glossed over in policy announcements. Borlace identifies a critical, often overlooked constraint: the sheer volume of purified water required for electrolysis. He notes that "water scarcity is a major problem in places like Australia and California where green hydrogen electrolysis is being so enthusiastically pursued." While he mentions promising innovations from Stanford University regarding saltwater electrolysis, he warns that these solutions are not yet widespread.
More concerning is the potential for "fossil fuel companies muscling in on the action and cheating on carbon emission regulations in an effort to lower prices." Borlace scrutinizes the reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a bridge technology. He quotes Finkel's assurance that if hydrogen is produced from coal or gas with CCS, emissions are minimal, with "less than naught point eight kilograms of carbon dioxide emitted for every kilogram of hydrogen produced." Yet, Borlace pushes back, observing that CCS has a poor track record in the United States, where it is often used for "enhanced oil recovery" to extract more fossil fuels rather than simply sequestering carbon.
He argues that the industry's focus on CCS creates a dangerous loophole. "If creating that storage also creates secondary almost hidden carbon dioxide emissions then we'll have failed to move away from our collective delusion that we can stay on a business-as-usual trajectory and still have any hope of survival," Borlace writes. This is the piece's most uncomfortable truth: the technology to produce clean hydrogen exists, but the economic incentives often favor dirty hydrogen with a green label.
The Path Forward
Despite the skepticism, Borlace acknowledges the transformative potential of the technology if the pitfalls are navigated correctly. He highlights the "Aerosmith hydrogen project" in Western Australia, a $300 million initiative designed to produce hydrogen entirely via renewable energy, as a concrete example of the ideal model. The project aims to integrate large-scale storage, offering a solution to the intermittency of wind and solar power.
The author concludes by emphasizing the need for rigorous verification. He notes that Australia is developing a "certificate of origin scheme" to ensure that the clean credentials of every kilogram of hydrogen can be verified. This mechanism is crucial to deter the very dishonest practices Borlace fears. He writes that "energy importing countries have been explicit that their interest is in clean hydrogen," suggesting that market forces might eventually punish those who cut corners.
"Human beings are remarkably innovative though a new carbon free ways to store energy are being developed all over the world all the time."
Bottom Line
Dave Borlace's analysis succeeds by refusing to treat green hydrogen as a guaranteed victory, instead presenting it as a high-risk, high-reward gamble that depends entirely on regulatory integrity. The strongest part of his argument is the exposure of the water scarcity and carbon capture loopholes, which are frequently ignored in favor of technological optimism. The biggest vulnerability remains the political will to enforce strict standards against powerful fossil fuel incumbents who may seek to exploit the transition for profit rather than progress. Readers should watch closely for how the proposed "certificate of origin" schemes are implemented, as that will determine whether this industry delivers on its promise or becomes a new vehicle for greenwashing.