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Imagining the chicken farm of the future, part 1: On-farm everything

Robert Yaman proposes a radical reimagining of animal agriculture that hinges not on current economic constraints, but on a future of abundance driven by artificial intelligence. The piece is notable for its refusal to accept the status quo of fragmented supply chains, arguing instead that a world with 30% annual GDP growth could finally afford to prioritize animal welfare over logistical efficiency. This is not a standard sustainability report; it is a speculative blueprint for a future where the very concept of transporting live animals becomes obsolete.

The Economics of Abundance

Yaman begins by challenging the reader to accept a premise that sounds almost science fiction: that AI could drive economic growth so high that societal wealth doubles every three years. "Some experts believe we could have annual GDP growth reaching 30%," he writes, noting that this would mean "each generation will be 1,000 times richer than their parents." This staggering projection serves as the foundation for his entire argument. If resources are no longer the limiting factor, the current industrial logic that dictates how we raise food collapses.

Imagining the chicken farm of the future, part 1: On-farm everything

The author argues that the current system is a relic of scarcity. "Today's chicken supply chain is fragmented into multiple specialized facilities, a structure shaped largely by historical economic incentives," Yaman explains. He details how hatcheries, farms, and slaughterhouses operate separately because each requires unique machinery and expertise, creating a system where efficiency is prioritized over the well-being of the animal. In a world of limitless energy and capital, Yaman suggests, we can stop optimizing for throughput and start optimizing for welfare.

Critics might note that assuming such explosive economic growth is a massive leap of faith that ignores potential ecological or social bottlenecks. However, Yaman's point is not to predict the future with certainty, but to use this extreme scenario as a thought experiment to reveal the unnecessary cruelty embedded in our current "efficient" systems.

Eliminating the Journey

The core of Yaman's proposal is the elimination of transportation. He argues that the current model forces a broiler chicken to visit three distinct facilities, a process that is inherently stressful and dangerous. "Every move between facilities involves inherent welfare challenges," he writes, highlighting that transport trucks often lack climate control, food, or water, leading to increased mortality and disease.

To solve this, Yaman envisions a system where the entire lifecycle occurs in one location. He points to existing practices like on-farm hatching, where eggs are delivered to the farm just before hatching, allowing chicks to avoid the "noisy, dusty, and stressful conditions associated with the hatchery." This is a proven method that already reduces the need for antibiotics. But Yaman pushes further, asking what happens if we merge the farm and the slaughterhouse.

The life of a chicken might then look like this: the chick hatches directly in a clean, calm environment; spends a few weeks roaming, eating, and socializing; then one day it goes to sleep and doesn't wake up.

This vision requires a technological leap in slaughter methods. Yaman describes the current gold standard, controlled atmosphere stunning (CAS), as humane but still flawed because it requires catching and moving birds. He proposes a facility where the living room itself becomes the stunning chamber. "One could imagine a setup where chicks lived their entire lives in one room... Then, when it was time for slaughter, the nitrogen valves turn on, and within a few minutes the chickens are unconscious," he writes. The engineering challenge, he admits, is moving the unconscious birds to the processing line quickly enough to prevent coagulation or waking, a problem he believes future AI and robotics could solve.

The Engineering of a Gentle Death

Yaman acknowledges that his proposal is not a practical guide for today's economy, but a roadmap for what is theoretically possible. "In a world of truly transformational AI, there's no way to know what kind of scientific advancements will be made, meaning that whatever I say here will necessarily be too conservative and unambitious," he admits. This humility strengthens his argument; he is not selling a product, but inviting a shift in perspective.

He outlines a complex logistical solution where flocks are segregated by age to match the processing capacity of the slaughter line, ensuring a continuous flow without overcrowding. "Each flock would then live separately in an airtight room within a larger facility," he details, suggesting that artificial lighting could be used to synchronize the birds' sleep cycles with the slaughter schedule. The goal is to allow birds to be slaughtered while asleep, a level of humane treatment currently impossible due to the stress of handling.

A counterargument worth considering is whether such a highly controlled, industrialized environment, even if stress-free, truly allows for the expression of natural behaviors. Yaman touches on this, noting that if the system is designed correctly, birds would have the "freedom to express natural behaviors," but the sheer scale of these integrated facilities remains a point of contention for animal welfare advocates who prefer smaller, more decentralized systems.

The ideas I discuss in this series are not meant to be prescriptive, just a first stab.

Bottom Line

Yaman's most compelling argument is that our current cruelty is a choice born of economic constraint, not an inevitability of biology. By framing the future through the lens of AI-driven abundance, he successfully exposes the arbitrary nature of the fragmented supply chain we accept today. The piece's greatest vulnerability is its reliance on a speculative economic future that may never arrive, yet it serves as a vital reminder that the technology to end the stress of transport and handling exists or is within reach if we are willing to redesign our systems from the ground up.

Sources

Imagining the chicken farm of the future, part 1: On-farm everything

by Robert Yaman · · Read full article

Some believe that artificial intelligence will dramatically increase economic growth in the near future. Once AI becomes advanced enough to perform most or all tasks currently done by humans, including running companies and scientific research, some experts believe we could have annual GDP growth reaching 30%. If this is even close to true, things will get very weird very quickly. This level of growth would mean we double societal wealth every three years, and each generation will be 1,000 times richer than their parents. The only possible analogy we have at our disposal is the transition from pre-industrial to post-industrial society, where we saw growth rates reach 13%, but only briefly and in specific regions.

No matter how much this growth changes society, humans will (probably?) stay the same. We’ll still want to raise animals for food. But we’ll also be able to afford vastly more accommodations for things like animal welfare.

One of the challenges of this newsletters’ project of applying a techno-optimist lens to animal agriculture is that it can be hard to envision the type of future we’re building towards. For sustainability, we can imagine a world where solar panels, wind turbines, and nuclear power plants provide limitless clean energy, and the electrification of every sector allows us to turn this energy into limitless productivity. That world isn’t unimaginably different from our own. What is the equivalent vision for animal farming?

The short answer is that I don’t exactly know. But I think we can and should take a stab at starting to envision it.

This is the first part of a multi-part series that tries to imagine how animal husbandry might work in a world where there are vastly more resources to throw at every problem. The ideas I discuss in this series are not meant to be prescriptive, just a first stab. Ideally, volumes of research would be devoted to this question, as has been done to map out the clean energy transition.

The practical implications of this exercise are necessarily limited. In a world of truly transformational AI, there’s no way to know what kind of scientific advancements will be made, meaning that whatever I say here will necessarily be too conservative and unambitious. And in the short term economics will continue to be a limiting factor on achieving this strange and exciting future.

However, I hope this exercise can help justify that it ...