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On the radar: A geopolitics dispatch

Dan Perry delivers a geopolitical dispatch that refuses to look away from the collision of authoritarian ambition and institutional fragility. The piece's most arresting claim is not just that the United States is escalating military pressure in Venezuela, but that it is simultaneously exporting a panic about migration to allies who built their own prosperity on the backs of immigrants. This is a stark warning: the world's most powerful democracy is no longer exporting confidence, but fear.

The Venezuelan Escalation

Perry frames the standoff in Venezuela not as a clean liberation effort, but as a dangerous gamble where "strange doings are afoot." He notes that the administration has deployed roughly 12,000 troops and a dozen warships, including an aircraft carrier, near the coast under Operation Southern Spear. The author does not shy away from the grim reality of the operations: "Officials in Washington say the mission targets narcotics networks linked to Venezuela's military hierarchy," yet he immediately counters with the human cost, noting that lethal attacks on suspected smuggling vessels have left more than 80 people dead. The framing is crucial here; Perry highlights that international monitors have raised concerns over proportionality, and critically, that "some of the videos look like executions, which would basically be a war crime."

On the radar: A geopolitics dispatch

This is a heavy charge, and Perry balances it by acknowledging the illegitimacy of the Maduro regime, which has caused millions to flee. He writes, "Maduro's ouster would be good news for almost everyone on earth who's paying attention." However, he questions the method, suggesting that without a credible plan for political transition, intervention risks "inflaming nationalism, entrenching the regime, and worsening a humanitarian crisis." The parallel to the "Cartel de los Suns"—a network the Biden administration previously labeled a terrorist organization—is woven in to show the long-standing nature of the state's involvement in trafficking, yet the current escalation feels less like law enforcement and more like a prelude to conflict. Critics might note that the administration's "escalate to negotiate" doctrine could indeed force talks, but Perry rightly points out that the legal basis for force is tenuous, lacking both self-defense justification and UN Security Council authorization.

The United States, a country built on immigration, is urging other countries to crack down on immigration.

The Shadow of Munich in Ukraine

The dispatch turns to Ukraine, where the tone shifts from military escalation to diplomatic anxiety. Perry describes upcoming peace talks in Miami as looking less like mediation and more like "pressure for a deal that would lock in Russian territorial gains." The historical weight of this moment is palpable. The author draws a sharp comparison to the 1938 Munich Agreement, noting that an earlier 28-point framework was "widely criticized, especially in Europe, as overly favorable to Moscow." This is a devastating critique of the diplomatic process, suggesting that the West is repeating the tragedy of appeasement.

Perry details the chaotic nature of the negotiations, mentioning the resignation of lead Ukrainian negotiator Andriy Yermak and the subsequent shift to Rustem Umerov. He writes, "Kyiv is seeking binding international security guarantees and a ceasefire that maintains current frontlines while rejecting any surrender of territory not already under Russian control." Yet, the reality on the ground contradicts the hope for a clean settlement. With Russia launching nearly 1,400 attack drones and 66 missiles in a single week, the pressure on Kyiv is immense. The author warns that "a peace perceived as coerced or unjust could fracture Western unity and encourage autocrats to use military aggression to gain negotiating leverage." This is the core of the argument: a rushed peace is not peace at all, but a surrender that validates aggression.

The Erosion of Democratic Norms

The piece then pivots to the internal decay of democratic institutions, using Israel and Brazil as contrasting case studies. In Israel, Perry scrutinizes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's request for a pardon, calling it a "shameless request" submitted while he is on trial for bribery and fraud. The author argues that Netanyahu is seeking relief from "the same judicial system he has spent years undermining." This creates a profound irony: the leader who ignited national divisions now claims a pardon would "heal national divisions." Perry contrasts this with Brazil, where former President Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment for plotting a coup demonstrates that "democracy insists that no one is untouchable." The author notes that while Bolsonaro's movement is splintered, the broader society appears "relieved to see institutions reassert control." This comparison is powerful, highlighting a divergence in how two nations are handling the aftermath of attempted subversion.

Today, it exports insecurity. That transformation is noticed, and it will shape how America is viewed long after this administration is gone.

The commentary also addresses the domestic erosion of the rule of law in the United States. Perry describes the dismissal of indictments against political opponents as a "sharp blow against the administration's escalating campaign to criminalize political opposition." He points to the unlawful appointment of the interim US attorney, Lindsey Halligan, which led a judge to declare the indictments invalid. The author warns that rather than prompting restraint, this has led to "ominous rhetoric about turning to military justice to punish critics." This section underscores a terrifying trend: the blurring of lines between democratic disagreement and sedition, a move that threatens the very fabric of the republic.

The Cost of Efficiency

Finally, Perry tackles the dismantling of the federal bureaucracy under the guise of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He describes the initiative not as reform, but as an "ideological demolition project" that resulted in the firing of thousands of federal workers, including specialists in nuclear oversight and health regulation. The author notes the absurdity of the situation: "the administration is now scrambling to rehire hundreds of those same workers after discovering that critical functions cannot be performed without them." This is a damning indictment of the approach, suggesting that the destruction of institutional capacity has already weakened key systems. The human cost is implicit but heavy: the halting of programs supporting global health, food security, and disaster response. As Perry puts it, the legacy is "so damaging" that the collapse is "almost farcical" if not for the real-world consequences.

Bottom Line

Dan Perry's dispatch is a masterclass in connecting disparate geopolitical threads to reveal a singular, unsettling truth: the rules-based order is fracturing from both external pressure and internal decay. The strongest part of the argument is the unflinching comparison between Brazil's successful enforcement of accountability and the United States' failure to do the same, a contrast that exposes the hypocrisy of American foreign policy. The piece's biggest vulnerability lies in its reliance on the assumption that institutional norms can be restored once the current political climate shifts, a hope that may be misplaced if the erosion of trust is too deep. Readers should watch closely for how the administration navigates the Venezuelan escalation, as the line between targeted strikes and a broader conflict grows increasingly thin.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Munich Agreement

    The article directly compares the Ukraine peace framework to the 1938 Munich Agreement, calling it 'one of history's more tragic naïve sellouts.' Understanding this historical appeasement of Hitler provides crucial context for evaluating current Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

  • Cartel of the Suns

    The article mentions the 'Cartel de los Soles' as a terrorist organization allegedly involving Venezuelan military officers and Maduro in drug trafficking. This specific narco-military network is central to understanding US justification for intervention in Venezuela.

  • 2024 Venezuelan presidential election

    The article refers to Maduro as an 'illegitimate leader' in quotes. Understanding the disputed 2024 election—where opposition candidate Edmundo González likely won but Maduro claimed victory amid international condemnation—explains why his legitimacy is contested.

Sources

On the radar: A geopolitics dispatch

by Dan Perry · Dan Perry · Read full article

In last week’s survey a large majority of our readers asked for more geopolitics. So as a user-responsive publication, and after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many of us, we are starting off this week with an omnibus roundup.

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Across the map, strange doings are afoot. In Venezuela, a US military buildup has pushed the country to the edge of a confrontation that could escalate by accident as much as by intent. On Ukraine, new talks are scheduled in Miami as Washington’s mediation is starting to look like pressure for a deal that would lock in Russian territorial gains, Benjamin Netanyahu’s request for a pardon midway through his corruption trial — on the heels of his establishment of an Oct. 7 whitewash commission — tests whether democracy can survive such an actor; in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment shows what happens when a democracy insists that no one is untouchable. Israel, improbably enough, can learn from that.

Meanwhile, the United States, a country built on immigration, is urging other countries to crack down on immigration. As for the markets, they are telling a more complicated story than the headlines suggest: a booming S&P driven almost entirely by a handful of tech giants while much of the real economy lags behind.

Hasta luego, Maduro?.

The standoff between the United States and Venezuela intensified this weekend after Trump announced the total closure of Venezuelan airspace and signaled what he called “land strikes” against drug-trafficking infrastructure “very soon.” Venezuelan “President” Nicolas Maduro called it colonialist, which is somewhat true. But it is also true that he is an illegitimate leader and a criminal.

The move expands Operation Southern Spear, under which US forces have already launched lethal attacks on around 20 suspected smuggling vessels in the Caribbean since September, leaving more than 80 people dead. Caracas has described the actions as “extrajudicial executions,” and international monitors have raised concerns over proportionality and legality. And yes, some of the videos look like executions, which would basically be a war crime.

The US has deployed roughly 12,000 troops and a dozen warships, including an aircraft carrier, near Venezuela’s coast. Officials in Washington say the mission targets narcotics networks linked to Venezuela’s military hierarchy. The Biden administration previously labeled the so-called “Cartel de ...