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Crosspost: Ben thompson: An interview with om malik about tech’s history & future

In a world obsessed with the next big thing, Brad DeLong offers a rare and sobering perspective: the future of technology was written in the wreckage of yesterday's bubbles. This piece is not merely an obituary for Om Malik; it is a masterclass in how to read the deep architecture of progress, arguing that true foresight comes from understanding the chips beneath the hype. DeLong frames Malik's life as proof that optimism, even when misplaced, often builds the infrastructure for tomorrow's reality.

The Architecture of Foresight

DeLong introduces Om Malik not just as a journalist, but as an analyst who could "see 18–24 months ahead" by reading the state of chips and networks. This is a radical departure from modern tech commentary, which often floats on strategy and surface-level trends. DeLong writes, "The thing is if the price of oil is going up, the obvious story is that the car sales are going to slide... but the Forbes story would be, 'McDonald's sales are going to slow down because there's fewer people on the freeway'." This top-down and bottom-up synthesis allowed Malik to predict industry shifts long before they hit the headlines.

Crosspost: Ben thompson: An interview with om malik about tech’s history & future

The argument gains depth when DeLong notes that modern journalism has lost this technical grounding. "We can think about, we are so surprised with OpenAI and AI and Vision Pro... People were doing asynchronous low power, ASICs... it became pretty obvious where the world was going to be 18-to-24 months from now," DeLong observes. The shock of today's AI boom is unnecessary if one understands that the hardware signals were flashing green years ago. Critics might argue that this focus on hardware determinism underestimates the role of regulatory shifts or cultural adoption, but the historical record suggests that physical constraints often dictate the pace of innovation more than policy does.

If you don't understand the stack, you don't know what next 24-to-48 months look like. At least you have a map of where we might just be going.

Bubbles as Philanthropy

Perhaps the most provocative claim in DeLong's commentary is his reframing of the dot-com and telecom crashes. Rather than viewing them purely as failures, he suggests they were acts of collective investment that built the foundation for the modern internet. "The dot-com and telecom bubbles built foundational infrastructure (dark fiber, broadband, cloud stack) that enabled today's world—that we should think of irrationally exuberance in tech as philanthropy," DeLong posits.

This perspective draws a fascinating parallel to other historical moments of massive, seemingly wasteful investment. Much like the Enron scandal revealed the dark side of deregulated energy markets while simultaneously highlighting the complexity of grid management, or how the WorldCom scandal exposed accounting fraud yet underscored the critical need for transparent telecom infrastructure, these tech bubbles left behind physical assets that outlasted the financial wreckage. The fiber-optic cables laid in the ground during the late 90s, once deemed a folly, became the backbone of the cloud era.

DeLong captures Malik's personal journey from a boy in India who had to walk half a mile for a phone call to a Silicon Valley insider, noting how that lack of communication shaped his worldview. "Communication made my world much smaller," DeLong quotes Malik as saying, highlighting how technology is fundamentally about shrinking distance and time. This human element grounds the technical analysis, reminding readers that every chip and network protocol serves a profound social function.

The Optimist's Edge

The commentary concludes by examining the psychological toll and reward of being an optimist in tech. DeLong writes, "When you grow up in a Third World country, optimism is not something you're born with... When you come to the US, you are surrounded by optimism." This cultural clash produced a unique lens through which Malik viewed the industry's excesses.

DeLong argues that while journalists are trained to be cynical, entrepreneurs must bet on the future. "The reality of now and the reality of tomorrow... they're never in sync," DeLong notes, explaining why bad ideas often precede good ones. The pet food delivery services of the 90s were ridiculed then, yet they validated the logistics networks that make modern e-commerce possible. This tension between immediate skepticism and long-term belief is where true progress happens.

All the ideas ended up coming true. The timing ended up being a bit off for a whole bunch of them. But there's the reality of now and the reality of tomorrow and they're never in sync, they never are and they never will be.

Bottom Line

Brad DeLong's tribute succeeds by elevating Om Malik from a mere observer to a prophet of infrastructure, proving that understanding the physical layer of technology is the only reliable way to navigate the future. The piece's greatest strength is its reframing of historical failures as necessary investments, though it risks underplaying the human cost of those bubbles on individual investors and workers. For busy leaders trying to anticipate the next shift, the takeaway is clear: stop looking at the headlines and start reading the chips.

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Crosspost: Ben thompson: An interview with om malik about tech’s history & future

Peering through the veil of time and ignorance, and seeing 24 months ahead via grasping the current deep state of the tech stack: Om Malik as analyst reading the detailed state of chips, networks, and bubbles as a guide to our medium-term future. Om Malik grew up walking half a mile to make a single phone call and ended up reading the global tech stack from the chip level up:.

Alas! My friend Om Malik has died. He was wonderful company. He taught me a lot. 60 is much too soon.

I have now lost two good friends on my birthday in successive years. I met him shortly after he moved to Silicon Valley from New York in 2000 to to start his GigaOM weblog <https://om.co/> <https://gigaom.com/>.

Ben Thompson has just let his Stratechery <http://stratechery.com/> interview with Om from 2 1/2 years ago out from the vault. It is very much worth reading/listening to to get a sense of the guy as a thinker.

A very brief summary of their conversation, which ties together three decades of tech history:

Journey from Indian kid without a phone to Silicon Valley reporter.

Learning how to read the tech stack from chips upward and to think both bottom‑up and top‑down.

A knowledge of the history of chips, networks, and bandwidth growth lets you “see” 18–24 months ahead in tech—but only if you understand the current state of the stack.

How the dot‑com and telecom bubbles built foundational infrastructure (dark fiber, broadband, cloud stack) that enabled today’s world—that we should think of irrationally exuberance in tech as philanthropy.

The AI boom as a similarly pivotal convergence of semiconductors, networks, open source, and new devices

AI best understood as augmented intelligence that helps humans manage complexity.

About Stratechery: <https://stratechery.com/about/>

CROSSPOST: BEN THOMPSON: An Interview with Om Malik About Tech’s History & Future.

<https://stratechery.com/2024/an-interview-with-om-malik-about-techs-history-and-future/>

Thursday, January 18, 2024

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Good morning,

Today’s Stratechery Interview is with Om Malik. Malik has been a reporter, analyst, blogger, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Malik covered the dot-com era for Forbes, before starting GigaOM, a site that covered the tech industry, in 2001. I consider Malik and GigaOM to be one of my and Stratechery’s spiritual ancestors. Malik then became an investor for True, where he is now partner emeritus. Today Malik writes at his excellent personal blog, Om.co; Malik is also an accomplished photographer, and maintains Photos By ...