We hate to be the ones to have to tell you, but it’s State of the Union day in Washington. Tonight, Donald Trump will head to Congress to spend an hour or two trying to salvage his cratering reputation highlighting his administration’s first-year successes, from an economy-throttling global trade war to his masks-and-jackboots makeover of ICE.

To mark the happy occasion, we’ve got lots of live video coming your way today. Bill and Andrew will be previewing the address on YouTube and Substack in our Morning Chaser at 10 a.m. EST. And tonight, Tim and Sam will anchor our SOTU coverage beginning with a preview at 8:50 p.m. EST, continuing through the president’s address and beyond—with the whole Bulwark crew and a special guest pitching in along the way. Watch your inbox for a location link we’ll send out as we get started. Hey, if you’re gonna watch it—and we guess you probably should—why not come watch it among friends? Happy Tuesday.

The State of the People

by William Kristol

Let’s be honest: Tonight will be depressing. When the sergeant at arms proclaims in a stentorian voice to the House chamber, “Mr. Speaker, the president of the United States,” we will be reminded, vividly and unavoidably, that Donald Trump is the president of the United States.

Which is depressing.

But there is a silver lining to that undeniably dark cloud. When President Trump spoke to a joint session of Congress almost a year ago, on March 4, 2025, he was in decent shape politically. Four months before, he’d won the presidency with 49.8 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.3 percent. Six weeks into his second term, his support was holding steady: The New York Times polling average had him at 49 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval.

Today, almost a year later, the Times average has Trump at 41 percent approval, 56 percent disapproval. Trump has lost about one sixth of his approval in the last year. A new poll from CNN is even more dramatic, showing Trump at 36 percent approval today, down from 48 percent in that same poll a year ago. That suggests one in four of his original supporters deserting him. And this morning G. Elliott Morris reports on his new poll, which has Trump at 37 percent approval, 59 percent disapproval.

So Trump has lost considerable ground. One of course wishes that even more ...