Packy McCormick's latest optimism dose arrives with a counterintuitive thesis: the most profound progress of 2025 isn't found in a new miracle drug or a breakthrough in artificial general intelligence, but in the boring, unglamorous mechanics of logistics and the quiet compounding of capital. While the news cycle often fixates on disruption, McCormick argues that the real victory lies in the successful scaling of existing, simple solutions to problems that have plagued humanity for centuries. This piece forces a re-evaluation of what "innovation" actually looks like in the public sphere, suggesting that the ability to deliver a vaccine to a remote village or seed a child's future with a single investment is more transformative than any single technological leap.
The Logistics of Survival
McCormick opens with a striking data point from Zipline, the drone delivery company, noting that their most significant metric of success is actually a decline in demand for a specific product. "Rwanda made eliminating childhood malnutrition a national priority, and with better logistics they succeeded almost immediately, reducing cases of severe malnutrition by up to 89%," McCormick writes. The author frames this not as a failure of the company's business model, but as a triumph of the system they built. The core argument is that the barrier to solving global health crises has never been a lack of cheap, simple interventions, but rather the inability to get them to the people who need them.
The commentary highlights a specific historical parallel to the asteroid Bennu deep dive, noting that just as the discovery of sugars in space suggests the building blocks of life are ubiquitous, the success in Rwanda proves that the building blocks of survival are equally available, provided the delivery mechanism exists. McCormick observes, "We can save millions of kids' lives every year not with miracle drugs, but with logistics." This reframing is powerful because it shifts the focus from the scarcity of resources to the scarcity of distribution networks. The author points out that Zipline is now pivoting to deliver vaccines and supplements, signaling a shift from survival to thriving.
Zipline and Waymo might be two of the best longevity drugs we have.
Critics might argue that relying on autonomous drones creates a fragile dependency on technology that could fail or be weaponized, yet the sheer scale of the $150 million pay-for-performance deal with the US State Department suggests a growing institutional confidence in this model. The expansion to Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, and Côte d'Ivoire aims to triple network coverage, reaching 100 million people. McCormick describes these drones as "little avian miracles," a phrase that captures the emotional weight of the technology without ignoring the mundane reality of the supply chain.
The Economics of Hope
Shifting from physical logistics to financial infrastructure, McCormick turns to a massive philanthropic initiative by Michael and Susan Dell. The Dells are committing $6.25 billion to seed 25 million children with $250 each in tax-advantaged accounts designed to track the S&P 500. McCormick writes, "Susan and I believe the smartest investment we can make is in children," quoting the couple's rationale for the "Invest America" program. The author's analysis focuses on the psychological impact of ownership: "Instead of feeling left behind, kids might come into adulthood feeling like they're benefiting from growth, too."
This section addresses the skepticism that $250 is too small a sum to matter in an era of soaring education costs. McCormick acknowledges the criticism, noting that even with a roaring stock market, the sum won't cover future tuition. However, the author argues the true value lies in the precedent set. "What's most exciting about the gift, though, is that it sets a precedent," McCormick argues, suggesting that private philanthropy can inspire public policy and corporate matching. The piece mentions bipartisan efforts, such as a letter from Ted Cruz and Cory Booker, and legislative plans in Texas, to show how this private act is catalyzing a broader political movement.
What's most exciting about the gift, though, is that it sets a precedent.
A counterargument worth considering is the risk of financializing childhood in a way that assumes the stock market will always perform well, potentially leaving families vulnerable if the market corrects. McCormick touches on this by referencing the Effective Altruist critique that the money could be used more immediately to save lives, but counters that the long-term cultural shift toward ownership is a different kind of utility. The author playfully speculates on corporate adoption, imagining Pampers swaddling newborns in $100 bills, to illustrate the potential for this model to become a standard expectation.
The Hardware and The Cosmos
The commentary then pivots to the competitive landscape of artificial intelligence and the frontiers of space exploration. McCormick notes that Amazon is launching its Trainium3 chip, positioning it as a cheaper alternative to NVIDIA's dominance. "The more interesting story is that Amazon, following Google's recent move in TPUs, is competing so directly with Jensen & Co.," McCormick writes. This section argues that vertical integration is becoming the new battleground, with tech giants building their own hardware to control costs and supply chains.
Simultaneously, the piece celebrates a scientific breakthrough from NASA's analysis of asteroid Bennu samples. Scientists found ribose and glucose, sugars essential for life, in the extraterrestrial material. McCormick captures the collective awe of the scientific community, quoting Parmita Mishra: "what the actual fuck how are people not talking about the fact that they found bio-essential sugars on an asteroid." The author emphasizes that while this is not proof of life, it confirms that the chemical building blocks are widespread throughout the solar system. This connects back to the earlier theme of abundance: just as the ingredients for life are everywhere in space, the ingredients for human flourishing are everywhere on Earth, waiting to be delivered.
It is hard to argue this is a conflated result due to earth contaminants.
The piece concludes with a nod to Michael Levin's work on biological intelligence, suggesting that the definition of life and agency is expanding beyond human biology. McCormick notes that Levin's arguments on "intelligence as cognitive lightcone" are gaining traction, further blurring the lines between the biological and the technological.
Bottom Line
McCormick's strongest move is reframing "optimism" not as a feeling, but as a measurable outcome of logistics and capital allocation. The piece's greatest vulnerability is its reliance on the assumption that market forces and philanthropy will continue to fill gaps that government policy has historically struggled to address. However, the convergence of autonomous delivery, financial inclusion, and space science offers a compelling narrative that progress is accelerating, even when the headlines suggest otherwise.