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What a year

Richard Coffin delivers a year-end financial rewind that feels less like a retrospective and more like a fever dream of policy chaos, where the line between satire and reality has been completely erased. The most striking element of his coverage is the sheer audacity of treating a world where a president launches a memecoin days before inauguration and a government efficiency department is run by a college intern as straightforward news. Coffin doesn't just list events; he constructs a narrative where the absurdity of 2025 is the only logical conclusion to the trends of the past decade.

The New Normal of Political Finance

Coffin opens with a scenario that immediately sets the tone for a year defined by the collision of celebrity culture and state power. "Donald Trump launches Salana based memecoin, Trumpcoin... The move foreshadows a year of crypto friendly policies from the White House and draws some criticism from those who believe that pumping a memecoin that you own 80% of presents a conflict of interest." This opening gambit is not merely a joke; it is a commentary on the erosion of institutional norms. By framing the President's personal financial gain as a precursor to national policy, Coffin highlights a dangerous precedent where governance becomes indistinguishable from a pump-and-dump scheme.

What a year

The author then pivots to the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency, noting that Elon Musk "promptly asks workers what they did last week." The coverage suggests that this initiative, intended to cut trillions, was doomed by its own lack of rigor. Coffin observes that "hiring a group of inexperienced college students and recent grads to override billions of dollars of government contracts may not have been a good idea." This is a sharp critique of the cult of efficiency that ignores the complexity of public administration. Critics might argue that the private sector often succeeds with leaner teams, but Coffin's evidence of "grossly exaggerated figures" and a subsequent increase in spending suggests that the experiment failed to account for the inertia of the state.

"The president cites fentanyl and illegal immigration as the main reasons behind these tariffs despite Canada in particular representing a small fraction of both issues."

The Tariff Escalation Ladder

The narrative shifts to trade, where Coffin describes a diplomatic chess game played with the rules of a video game. He details the "Liberation Day" where the US "liberates the world from free trade," introducing a baseline tariff that causes markets to drop 12% in a week. The author's description of the trade war with China is particularly vivid: "And like an UNO pickup 4chain gone terribly wrong, things escalate quickly." This metaphor perfectly captures the irrationality of the situation, where tariffs on rare earth metals and steel spiral into a 145% levy before being walked back.

Coffin notes that despite the chaos, "Tensions cool further on November 4th as the countries announce an agreement to ease trade restrictions further for a year." This sudden de-escalation highlights the volatility of a system driven by executive whims rather than long-term strategy. The author's coverage of Canada's position under new Prime Minister Mark Carney adds a layer of geopolitical nuance, noting that Canada "strangely finds itself in an advantage position" due to free trade exemptions. This suggests that while the US burns bridges, its neighbors are quietly building lifeboats.

The AI Bubble and the Future of Work

Moving to technology, Coffin tackles the artificial intelligence sector with a skeptical eye. He describes a deal between Nvidia and OpenAI as "circular," where Nvidia invests $100 billion to build data centers that OpenAI will fill with Nvidia chips. The author points out the disconnect between investment and reality: "OpenAI... entering deals to spend $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years despite earning less than 2% of that as revenue." This is a damning indictment of the current AI hype cycle, where capital flows are disconnected from actual utility or profitability.

The commentary also touches on the integration of prediction markets into mainstream finance. Coffin writes, "apps like Robin Hood and Coinbase even announcing moves to integrate prediction markets right alongside investor portfolios, enabling users to lose their money gambling in addition to losing it on call options and crypto." This observation underscores a broader trend where financial regulation struggles to keep pace with the gamification of investing. The author's dry remark that betting on aliens is now considered a "prudent investment strategy" serves as a biting critique of how financial logic has been warped by the desire for novelty.

"The correction ultimately reflects lower liquidity in the financial system and heightened investor concerns over the asset, which has come to act more like a volatile tech stock than the promised safe haven that many purported to be."

The Bottom Line

Richard Coffin's coverage of 2025 is a masterclass in navigating a reality that feels increasingly fictional. His strongest argument is that the financial and political systems have become so entangled with personality and speculation that traditional metrics of stability no longer apply. The biggest vulnerability in his narrative is the sheer density of the chaos; it is difficult to discern where the satire ends and the warning begins. However, the piece serves as a vital warning: when the rules of the game are rewritten by the players themselves, the only safe bet is to expect the unexpected. Readers should watch for how these experimental policies play out in 2026, particularly as the US-China trade truce is set to expire and the new Canadian government faces its own challenges.

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What a year

by Richard Coffin · The Plain Bagel · Watch video

Hello everyone. Welcome to the annual finance rewind here on the plane bagel. I'm your host Richard Coffin. We have made it to the end of yet another eventful 12 months mostly in one piece.

And as is tradition here on the plane bagel, we'll take the opportunity as we adorn our festive sweaters to reflect and take a walk down memory lane on the key happenings and events that help define 2025. I always quite enjoy doing these videos. to give me a good chance to reflect on everything and just remember the stuff that maybe we forgot really happened this year. As we summarize some of the key events of the year, we'll also take the opportunity to discuss key trends going into 2026.

So, settle in, grab yourself a cozy drink and sweater like myself. we are here to unwind after all with this rewind. I know that might be difficult given the past year we've had, but we'll do our best to keep things light-hearted as we take the opportunity to discuss the year we've had. A quick thank you to Brilliant for sponsoring this finance rewind.

Stick to the end for an exclusive offer on their platform. And without further ado, let's hop into it. January 17th, Donald Trump launches Salana based memecoin, Trumpcoin. All right, bad start.

I agree. But stick with me. We can make it through this. The cryptocurrency, which comes just 3 days before Trump's inauguration as president of the United States, surges over a few days from just over a dollar to nearly $75 a coin before correcting downwards.

The move foreshadows a year of crypto friendly policies from the White House and draws some criticism from those who believe that pumping a memecoin that you own 80% of presents a conflict of interest for the president of the United States. Trump puts concerns to rest by offering an exclusive dinner to top holders of the memecoin. January 18th in briefly the most important news in the finance world. Tik Tok goes dark as a ban takes effect in the United States.

The app, of course, comes back online the following day as the government gives Bite Dance, the Chinese parent company of Tik Tok, 75 days to find a US owner for its US operations. The ban goes on to be delayed a number of times throughout the year ...