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Weekly dose of optimism #166

In a week often defined by gridlock and pessimism, Packy McCormick delivers a rare triple-bonus edition that reframes the current moment not as a decline, but as an industrial renaissance. The piece's most distinctive claim is that capital is finally flowing back into the physical world—from nuclear energy to shipbuilding—driven by a convergence of AI breakthroughs and a new generation of builders who refuse to accept the status quo. This is not merely a list of good news; it is an argument that the bottlenecks of the last decade are actively being dismantled.

The Return of Hard Capital

McCormick opens by highlighting a seismic shift in American finance: JPMorgan Chase has committed $1.5 trillion to boost critical industries, signaling that the era of purely digital speculation is giving way to tangible asset building. "America needs more speed and investment. It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way: excessive regulations, bureaucratic delay, partisan gridlock and an education system not aligned to the skills we need," Jamie Dimon is quoted as saying. McCormick interprets this not as corporate altruism, but as a calculated bet on the only sectors capable of generating growth in the coming decades.

Weekly dose of optimism #166

The author argues that this capital injection is creating a fertile environment for "Vertical Integrators"—companies that control their entire supply chain. This is evidenced by the rapid approval of Erebor, a new bank led by Palmer Luckey designed specifically to lend to hard technology and defense firms. "It plans to lend to hard tech and defense companies, and perhaps no one is in a better position to underwrite them than Luckey, Joe Lonsdale, and the team they're assembling," McCormick writes. The underlying thesis is that the financial system is finally catching up to the industrial ambition of the builders.

Critics might note that a $1.5 trillion commitment from a single bank, while massive, is still a drop in the bucket compared to the total capital required to rebuild national infrastructure. Furthermore, the speed of regulatory approval for new banks raises questions about whether oversight is being sacrificed for momentum. However, the sheer scale of the announcement suggests a fundamental change in risk appetite among the world's largest financial institutions.

AI as a Scientific Partner

The commentary shifts to the scientific frontier, where McCormick presents evidence that artificial intelligence has moved beyond pattern recognition to genuine hypothesis generation. The centerpiece is Google DeepMind's C2S-Scale model, which proposed a novel theory on cancer cellular behavior that was subsequently validated by human researchers in a lab. "It's a 'conditional amplifier,' meaning it boosts the immune signal. This turns 'cold' tumors — tumors invisible to the body's immune system — 'hot,' so they can be eliminated from the map," explains researcher John Coogan, as cited by McCormick.

McCormick frames this as a milestone, noting that "Google DeepMind continues to crush all comers when it comes to building models that do useful things in the physical world." The argument extends to fusion energy, where DeepMind is using reinforcement learning to optimize plasma simulations for Commonwealth Fusion Systems. The author suggests that the synergy between AI and physical science is accelerating discovery rates in ways that were previously impossible.

This is AI forming its own hypotheses, which human researchers validated in the lab.

While the excitement is warranted, a counterargument worth considering is that AI-generated hypotheses still require rigorous, time-consuming experimental validation, meaning the timeline to actual cures remains long. Nevertheless, the shift from AI as a tool for data analysis to AI as a partner in discovery represents a profound change in the scientific method.

Reimagining Biology and Infrastructure

Beyond AI, McCormick highlights a contrarian theory on aging proposed by Michael Levin, which suggests that aging is not a programmed decay but a result of cells losing their "goal-directedness" after development is complete. "Aging emerges after developmental goals are completed, even without noise or programmed degeneration," the author notes, summarizing the paper's core finding. This perspective implies that aging could potentially be reversed by reprogramming the "control software" of tissue, a concept that challenges the prevailing molecular focus of modern biology.

This theme of re-engineering the physical world continues with California Forever's submission of plans for a new city in Solano County. The project aims to house 400,000 people with walkable neighborhoods, factories, and a shipyard. McCormick points out the significance of this: "Magic happens when you connect the new to the old," referencing historical urban planning successes like the Manhattan Plan. The piece also touches on the nuclear renaissance, with Radiant Industries planning to mass-produce portable generators in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and the Army's Janus Program seeking to reduce reliance on vulnerable fuel convoys.

McCormick connects these disparate threads—finance, AI, biology, and urban planning—into a narrative of momentum. "Can you feel the momentum?" he asks, suggesting that the convergence of these developments indicates a broader shift away from stagnation. The inclusion of a book recommendation on construction efficiency and a podcast on near-death experiences further broadens the scope, arguing that the world is becoming more capable of solving its hardest problems while simultaneously rediscovering a sense of wonder.

Bottom Line

Packy McCormick's strongest argument is the synthesis of financial capital and technological capability, demonstrating that the barriers to industrial progress are being actively removed. The piece's biggest vulnerability is its optimism, which may understate the political and logistical friction that still exists in implementing these large-scale projects. Readers should watch to see if this surge in investment translates into tangible, on-the-ground results over the next few years, or if it remains a promise of potential.

Sources

Weekly dose of optimism #166

by Packy McCormick · Not Boring · Read full article

Hi friends,

Happy Friday and hello from sunny Berkeley, California, where Roots of Progress is hosting the 2025 Progress Conference this weekend. We are going to have a lot to talk about. This is one of the most jam-packed in the history of the Dose.

Last week, Dan predicted that with me at the keyboard, the Dose was about to get a lot longer. He was right; this is a rare TRIPLE BONUS week, and we still had to leave things out. Big thanks to Aman and Sehaj for scouring the internet to help put together the Dose.

In my defense, there were just a lot of great things happening this week. We have big news out of the world of AI: OpenAI is now allowing erotica in ChatGPT (jk) a new Google model generated a novel cancer hypothesis that humans have validated! We have big news out of the world of American Finance. We have a new Michael Levin theory on aging. We have Nuclear News. And we have plans for a new city in California. On top of all that, we have the best profile/podcast/book trio of the year.

So much happened this week that we didn’t even include Anduril’s unveiling of EagleEye (or Palmer’s Rogan appearance), Lockheed’s autonomous Black Hawk, SpaceX completing the V1 and V2 era of Starship, Daylight’s $75M to decentralize the grid, Brian in Ramp’s Office, or Joel Mokyr winning the Nobel in Economics “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth.” What a week for the optimists.

Let’s get to it.

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(1) JPMorganChase Launches $1.5 Trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative to Boost Critical Industries

“Our security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America’s economy. America needs more speed and investment. It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way: excessive regulations, bureaucratic delay, partisan gridlock and an education system not aligned to the skills we need.” - Jamie Dimon

Jamie Dimon is either running ...