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Turnabout is fair play

Doomberg · Doomberg · ·3 min read
Commentary by Hex Index staff

Doomberg delivers a provocative twist on the rare-earth crisis, arguing that America's path to energy independence might ironically lie in the very fossil fuel it seeks to replace. The piece stands out by shifting the focus from geopolitical posturing to the hard physics of supply chains, suggesting that the solution to China's dominance may be found in the ash of domestic coal plants.

The Magnet Reality

The author begins by grounding the reader in the material reality of the "green" transition, dismantling the illusion that electric vehicles and wind turbines are free of heavy industry. Doomberg writes, "Among the key demand-growth drivers for rare-earth elements (REEs) are the high-end magnets that underpin the so-called green energy transition." This framing is crucial; it forces a recognition that decarbonization requires massive extraction, not just software and policy. The piece details how neodymium-based magnets are the non-negotiable core of electric motors, noting that in China, "PHEVs are often tuned for maximum motor power, such hybrids contain as much or more neodymium as their BEV counterparts."

Turnabout is fair play

The scale of this requirement is staggering, and Doomberg does not shy away from the numbers. "A 3 MW wind turbine may contain up to 600 kg of neodymium in its permanent magnets and ~50 kg of dysprosium can be present," the author notes, adding that dysprosium is essential for high-temperature performance. This evidence is compelling because it quantifies the hidden cost of the green economy. Critics might note that the article focuses heavily on permanent magnet direct-drive turbines, which are just one design among many, and that newer technologies are actively seeking to reduce or eliminate these specific rare earth dependencies. However, the current market reality remains dominated by these magnet-heavy designs.

The Irony of Leverage

The commentary then pivots to the geopolitical chessboard, highlighting a deep contradiction in China's strategy. Doomberg observes that "China dominates nearly all aspects of both the green energy and rare-earth supply chains," a position that grants it immense leverage over the West. The author points out the hypocrisy of a nation that burns more coal than the US and EU combined while still claiming "developing country" status to evade climate responsibilities. "China's green energy actions are little more than a cloak for how much coal it continues to burn," Doomberg argues. This reframing is effective because it strips away the moral high ground often assumed by the West in climate negotiations, revealing a pragmatic, if cynical, economic war.

China's green energy actions are little more than a cloak for how much coal it continues to burn.

In response to this leverage, the executive branch is mobilizing. The piece cites a recent interview where US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent claimed to hold "the first magnet made in the US in 25 years," declaring that the administration was "ending China's chokehold on our supply chain." Doomberg treats this with a mix of skepticism and optimism, suggesting that while Bessent's "bluster" may take time to materialize, the sheer weight of US capital will accelerate the process. The author posits that "when a country as rich and sophisticated as the US throws its full weight behind an important project, results are quite swift." This confidence in American industrial capacity is a bold stance, potentially underestimating the decades of supply chain expertise China has cultivated.

The Coal Paradox

The most striking argument in the piece is the potential role of domestic coal in solving the rare earth shortage. Doomberg suggests that "burning coal in the US just might serve as America's rare-earth savior, turning the tables on the world's biggest carbon polluter." The logic is that a national stockpile of rare earths exists within coal ash, waiting to be processed. This is a fascinating inversion: the solution to the green transition's bottleneck is the byproduct of the very fossil fuel the transition aims to eliminate. "Glory paid to ashes comes too late," the author opens with, quoting Martial, but here, the ashes may be the key to the future.

This argument is provocative but carries significant environmental risk. A counterargument worth considering is that processing coal ash for rare earths could generate toxic waste streams that undermine the environmental goals of the green transition. Yet, Doomberg's point stands that the geopolitical imperative may force a re-evaluation of waste management strategies. The piece concludes that a "glut of rare earth metals and magnets will hit the market" sooner than expected, driven by this unexpected convergence of old and new energy sectors.

Bottom Line

Doomberg's strongest move is connecting the dots between coal ash and green magnets, a narrative thread often ignored in favor of pure policy analysis. The argument's vulnerability lies in its optimism regarding the speed of US industrial scaling and the environmental viability of processing coal byproducts at scale. Readers should watch for the specific technologies emerging to extract these elements, as the success of this "turnabout" depends entirely on engineering, not just ambition.

Sources

Turnabout is fair play

by Doomberg · Doomberg · Read full article

“Glory paid to ashes comes too late.” – Marcus Valerius Martial

Among the key demand-growth drivers for rare-earth elements (REEs) are the high-end magnets that underpin the so-called green energy transition. Neodymium-based magnets, a core component of the electric motors in fully electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs), have become the industry standard. In China, where PHEVs are often tuned for maximum motor power, such hybrids contain as much or more neodymium as their BEV counterparts.

The wind sector also relies heavily on neodymium-based magnets, especially in the modern direct-drive designs typically used in offshore projects and in some new onshore installations. The amount required per megawatt (MW) of installed capacity is surprisingly large:

“The amount of REEs needed to build the permanent magnets used in wind turbines depends on the specific design and size of the wind turbine. However, neodymium-based magnets, which are the most commonly used type of permanent magnet in wind turbines, typically contain between 28% and 32% neodymium by weight, as well as other elements such as iron, boron, and small amounts of other rare earth elements such as dysprosium and praseodymium.

A 3 MW wind turbine may contain up to 600 kg of neodymium in its permanent magnets and ~50 kg of dysprosium can be present, which is added in small quantities to improve the high-temperature performance of the magnets. Other statistics suggest that 1 MW wind turbine power generation requires ~150 kg of rare earths.”

China dominates nearly all aspects of both the green energy and rare-earth supply chains. Having convinced Western nations to fully buy into both, it now holds substantial leverage in its ongoing economic war with the US. This success of this strategy is made all the more ironic when one considers that China’s green energy actions are little more than a cloak for how much coal it continues to burn. Despite consuming vastly more coal than the US and the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) combined, China still clings to its status as a “developing country” in international climate-change negotiations, freeing it to effectively do as it pleases on the energy front.

As is well chronicled by now, China’s recent threats have triggered a whole-of-government effort to close America’s rare earth metals gap, and tens of billions will be thrown toward the problem. In a recent sit-down interview with Fox Business, US Secretary of ...