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Is labour doomed? | Novara debates w/ ash sarkar, michael walker & aaron bastani

A fundamental shift is happening in British politics that could end the two-party system as we know it. That's the claim at the center of this discussion, and the evidence is mounting.

The recent local elections painted a grim picture for Labour. They came fourth in several races, lost their sixteenth safest seat, and watched Reform UK surge to a seven-point lead. But the real story isn't just about electoral margins—it's about what these results reveal about Labour's relationship with the British public.

Is labour doomed? | Novara debates w/ ash sarkar, michael walker & aaron bastani

The Winter Fuel Blunder

The winter fuel allowance cut represents one of the most politically idiotic decisions in recent memory. By removing a benefit from millions of pensioners who paid into the system their entire working lives, Starmer and Rachel Reeves managed to attack precisely the group of voters who are most likely to turn out and geographically spread across marginal seats.

The policy essentially told voters: "This is whose side we're on." And for many people, the answer was clear—they're not on the side of ordinary people. The political class that won a cost of living election is now actively betraying those who trusted them.

Critics might note that wealthy pensioners receiving universal benefits do represent a genuine policy problem worth addressing. Means-tested approaches could have preserved savings while protecting vulnerable recipients. But the way it was executed—cutting from 12 million recipients to just 2 million—demonstrates a breathtaking lack of political judgment.

The Attention Economy

Beyond specific policies, there's something deeper wrong with Labour's approach to politics. A recent analysis points to how the attention economy has fundamentally changed political communication. Companies and individuals now compete for our attention constantly. Unless you're proactively reaching people like Donald Trump or Emmanuel Macron, you've already lost.

Starmer is terrible at this. He doesn't do press conferences regularly. He's not constantly in the news cycle. And when you compare him to Tony Blair—a politician who was quite good at reading emotions and mirroring them back—the gap becomes stark.

Starmer has many of Blair's weaknesses but none of his strengths.

Blair could be relaxed, jovial, and connect emotionally with voters. Starmer is stiff, awkward, and struggles with the storytelling that politics now requires.

The Riots Missed Opportunity

The August 2024 riots represented a moment where Starmer could have connected with the public. Everyone hates disorder on the streets—it should have been a strong moment for a prime minister who seemed in control. But instead of defining who we are as a nation, Starmer struggled to tell the story effectively.

What emerged from that chaos was something called "two-tier"—a real loss of control narrative that further damaged public perception.

The 1990s Mode Problem

The core issue is that Starmer and Reeves approach politics as if it still belongs to the 1990s. They operate by spreadsheet, adding up numbers for Treasury savings without realizing they're building a block of interests who become radicalized very quickly.

From pensioners to farmers on inheritance tax to small business owners facing national insurance increases—the government has managed to alienate multiple voting blocs simultaneously. And they did this all while looking statesmanlike at international summits, flanked by world leaders, seemingly oblivious to domestic consequences.

Bottom Line

The strongest argument in this discussion is that Labour's fundamental approach to politics is outdated and tonedeaf. They keep making decisions that alienate precisely the voters they need—pensioners who turn out, small business owners who are geographically concentrated, and ordinary people who expected better after winning an election.

Their biggest vulnerability is structural: Starmer lacks the charisma and emotional intelligence required to command attention in modern politics. Without fixing both the policies and the personality, Labour's trajectory appears genuinely bleak—possibly doomed in the traditional sense of electoral defeat and possibly finished as a relevant political force entirely.

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Is labour doomed? | Novara debates w/ ash sarkar, michael walker & aaron bastani

by Novara Media · Novara Media · Watch video

Welcome to another special Navara Media live stream. Yesterday we discussed whether reform could become the largest party at the next general election and today we're discussing whether Labor are doomed. now that could be taken in a couple of ways I suppose. Firstly, are they set to lose the next general election in 2029?

And two, has politics in society changed so fundamentally that the Labour Party in its current form is just finished. to discuss that question. I'm joined, who I'm joined by. I'm joined by Ashar and Aaron Bastani.

How are you both doing? I'm very well. Aaron was coming out with some controversial opinions before we even went live. He said that if David Beckham wasn't so good-looking, he'd be more highly rated as a footballer.

So, in a way, he had pretty disadvantage rather than pretty privilege. If I understand you, that's correct. I think he deserved that Balandor in 1999. I think he deserved it.

We're talking about Labor. Whatever. I don't think pretty disprivilege exists. I don't think anyone can be too pretty.

You can't be too rich or too pretty. Well, I think actually, Michael, I think that one of the reasons why people don't appreciate your journalism to the extent that they should is because you're so good-looking. But anyway, separate I sometimes I went through a phase where I was like, I just really want to look like a model, sort of in terms of kind of googling work that could get done. didn't do any although I was I was because I was just thinking like if you look like a model your life is just different but not necessarily richer let's get on to our topic in a moment but first of all these streams we're doing them because we are in a fundamentally very significant political moment reform have become what looks like the most popular party in this country two-party politics could be over so it is a moment to get us all together and discuss big picture what's going on in the UK.

We're also at a moment as an organization where we're really keen to increase our number of supporters. I say this all the time when I'm hosting Navara Live, I want my co-hosts in the same room as me. I'd like more of my special guests in the same room as me ...