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The two homelessness problems

Matt Yglesias cuts through the semantic fog of the homelessness debate by making a distinction that is as simple as it is politically inconvenient: the crisis of housing affordability and the crisis of public disorder are two separate problems requiring two separate solutions. While much of the discourse conflates the two, Yglesias argues that treating them as one creates policy paralysis, leaving the most vulnerable without shelter and the public without safety. This is a necessary intervention for a moment when cities are struggling to balance humanitarian care with the practical demands of urban livability.

The Economics of Displacement

Yglesias begins by dismantling the assumption that homelessness is primarily a failure of individual morality or a lack of charity. Instead, he points to the structural mechanics of the housing market. "Homelessness, as a problem, is mostly driven by the economics of housing," he writes. "A large share of the homeless population, as measured in various surveys, is gainfully employed." This observation is critical because it shifts the blame from the individual to the system. When people working full-time cannot afford rent, the issue is not a lack of work ethic; it is a lack of supply.

The two homelessness problems

The author identifies two specific mechanisms driving this scarcity. First, the legalization of low-end housing typologies has effectively criminalized the cheapest places to live. Second, high average costs mean families cannot absorb friends or relatives in crisis. "When you get an upsurge in housing costs under these conditions, you get a rise in homelessness," Yglesias notes. The solution, he argues, is not just more shelters, but a fundamental shift in zoning and construction policy. This aligns with historical precedents discussed in related deep dives on single-room occupancy, where the removal of such units in the mid-20th century created a permanent deficit in the lowest rung of the housing ladder. By failing to allow conversions of old structures in low-demand areas, cities have removed the safety valve for those facing financial shocks.

Critics might argue that simply building more market-rate housing takes too long to help those currently on the street, but Yglesias is clear that this is a long-term structural fix, not an immediate bandage. The argument holds up because it addresses the root cause rather than the symptom. If the supply of affordable units remains illegal, no amount of policing or charity will solve the math of housing.

The Distinction of Public Nuisance

The piece then pivots to the second, distinct problem: the visible suffering and disorder that disrupts public life. Yglesias acknowledges that while the first problem is about economics, this second problem is about behavior linked to addiction and mental illness. "Over and above disordered behavior, in an environment where people come to worry about disordered behavior by addicts or the mentally ill, the mere physical presence of a homeless person can spark fear," he observes. This is a candid admission that many progressives struggle to articulate: the fear is real, even if the person causing it is a victim of circumstance.

Yglesias makes a crucial semantic point here. He notes that people often label anyone exhibiting these behaviors as "homeless," even if they are in subsidized housing or have a roof over their heads at night. "I wish that we had a term that actually fit what people are talking about," he admits. This distinction matters because it prevents the conflation of a housing crisis with a public safety crisis. The solution to the former is building; the solution to the latter, he suggests, involves a mix of strict policing and coerced treatment. "I would be favorable to policing behavior on the streets more strictly and having options to coerce people into treatment if they are routinely misbehaving in public spaces," Yglesias writes. This is not a call for mass incarceration, but for a system that prioritizes getting people into care, even against their will, when they are a danger to themselves or others.

The solution is to be both stricter and also more generous. And to acknowledge that the problem of people behaving inappropriately in public space is not actually the same problem as homelessness.

This dual approach challenges the current political status quo. Yglesias describes a "corrupt bargain" where moderate jurisdictions dump troubled individuals onto progressive ones, leading to a cycle of tolerance that fails to solve the problem. He argues that this dynamic is unsustainable and that a new social contract is needed—one that funds treatment and enforcement rather than just displacement. The historical context of inclusionary zoning efforts shows that when cities try to mandate affordable units without addressing the underlying cost drivers, the results are often negligible. Yglesias's call for a more aggressive, comprehensive approach to both supply and enforcement is a departure from the half-measures that have dominated recent decades.

Political Realities and Factionalism

The commentary also touches on the broader political landscape, specifically the tension within the Democratic party between moderates and the progressive left. Yglesias warns against the strategy of freezing out the left, arguing that it often backfires by pushing the establishment further left in a desperate attempt to shore up support. "The point I keep trying to make about this is that obsessive focus on freezing out the left is precisely how the Democratic establishment got too left-wing," he writes. This is a provocative take that suggests the current polarization is a self-inflicted wound.

He applies this logic to specific issues like foreign policy and crime, noting that while the progressive base may hold maximalist views, the broader electorate often holds more moderate positions. "I would be favorable to policing behavior on the streets more strictly," he reiterates, linking the housing argument to the broader need for a pragmatic approach to governance. The author suggests that the party needs to stop trying to please everyone and start backing candidates with good ideas, even if they don't win the primary immediately. This is a call for long-term strategic thinking over short-term factional victories.

Bottom Line

Yglesias's strongest contribution is the clear-eyed separation of housing economics from public safety, a distinction that allows for more honest and effective policy making. His willingness to advocate for coerced treatment and stricter policing, while simultaneously calling for a massive expansion of housing supply, offers a rare path forward that avoids the traps of both laissez-faire neglect and punitive authoritarianism. The biggest vulnerability of the argument is the political difficulty of implementing such a dual strategy in a polarized environment, but the analysis remains essential for anyone looking to understand the true nature of the urban crisis.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • The Death and Life of Great American Cities Amazon · Better World Books by Jane Jacobs

    The classic that transformed urban planning — why cities need density, mixed use, and organic complexity.

  • Inclusionary zoning

    While the author advocates for generalized housing policy over targeted subsidies, this common regulatory tool illustrates the specific type of market intervention that often fails to address the root supply constraints described.

Sources

The two homelessness problems

by Matt Yglesias · Slow Boring · Read full article

Something that I continue to hear not only from MAGA types but also from progressives with ties to industrial labor unions is that economists discredited themselves with doomsday Liberation Day predictions that didn’t come true.

I’m sure that there were some economists who overstated things. There are a lot of economists out there, and an unfortunate reality of the contemporary media climate is that whenever anything happens, the most overblown reactions are disproportionately likely to get attention. But the truth is that the tariffs announced on Liberation Day were swiftly rolled back, and what we actually landed on were tariff increases that were less than half as large as what Trump originally said.

Would the impact of Trump’s original plan have been catastrophic? It’s hard to know for sure. But not only did a lot of economists say it would be, the Trump administration itself appears to have decided that the critics were correct, which is why they didn’t implement what they initially announced. It’s of course possible that the administration got this wrong and much higher tariffs would be fine. But if that’s what you think, you should take it up with them!

Swami: What should blue states do to solve the problem of hard-core homelessness (those that are mentally ill or addicts/alcoholics)? Is this even politically possible?

I always find the homelessness conversation a little bit cursed because a lot of it founders on semantic issues or people talking past each other.

What it means to be homeless is to not have a place to live. Homelessness, as a problem, is mostly driven by the economics of housing. A large share of the homeless population, as measured in various surveys, is gainfully employed. Quantitatively, the biggest driver of homelessness is the cost of housing.

This manifests in two ways. One is that low-end, very cheap housing has largely been made illegal in the United States, which creates problems for people who run into financial difficulties. A second is that when average housing costs are high, people are less likely to have spare space in their homes where a friend or family member could crash. So when you get an upsurge in housing costs under these conditions, you get a rise in homelessness: people sleeping in cars, people sleeping in shelters, and various other bad economic circumstances.

The solutions to this problem are fundamentally in the housing policy space. ...