← Back to Library

Weekly dose of optimism #169

In a week where headlines often scream about stagnation, Packy McCormick delivers a counter-narrative that feels less like a newsletter and more like a field report from the future. He argues that while the political noise is deafening, the real story is a "week jam-packed with technological and economic miracles" that is quietly rewriting the rules of space, energy, and biology. This isn't just a list of startup funding rounds; it is a compelling case that the most critical infrastructure of the next century is being built right now, often in the shadows of established giants.

The New Space Race

McCormick opens with a sharp critique of the status quo, citing Casey Handmer's scathing assessment of the Orion Space Capsule program. "Lockheed isn't Boeing but even so, I am not and have never been suicidal," Handmer wrote, a quote McCormick uses to highlight the absurdity of spending $30 billion on a program that lags behind private innovation. The author frames the recent surge in space activity not as a government-led renaissance, but as a chaotic, vibrant ecosystem where private capital and entrepreneurial risk are outpacing bureaucratic inertia.

Weekly dose of optimism #169

The piece highlights a dramatic shift in leadership, noting that Jared Isaacman has been renominated to lead NASA. McCormick writes, "If confirmed, he would replace acting administrator Sean Duffy, who Casey depicted as the dog-in-burning-NASA-room in that picture above." This framing suggests a pivot toward a leader who understands the startup ethos, potentially aligning the agency with the very companies that are now outperforming it. Critics might note that relying on a figure so closely tied to a single private entity like SpaceX could introduce conflicts of interest or narrow the scope of exploration, but the momentum is undeniable.

"All of this for less than the $30 billion that NASA has spent on Orion..."

The coverage then pivots to the commercialization of orbit, detailing Google's "Project Suncatcher" to build data centers in space. McCormick explains that Google aims to harness the sun's power, which "emits more power than 100 trillion times humanity's total electricity production." This connects to the broader theme of space-based solar power, a concept that has long been theoretical but is now seeing prototype launches from companies like Star Catcher, which recently broke a DARPA world record for optical power beaming. The argument here is that the bottleneck for AI and energy is no longer just on the ground; it is moving to the vacuum of space.

Securing the Supply Chain

Shifting from the stars to the soil, McCormick tackles the critical vulnerability of rare earth magnets. He recalls a historical blunder where GM sold its magnet technology to China, a decision that allowed Beijing to capture 90% of the global market. "The rare earth magnets are coming home," he declares, detailing a massive $1.4 billion partnership between the US government and Vulcan Elements.

The core of this argument is about decoupling from adversarial supply chains. McCormick writes, "This is a critical step to producing enough of them locally that we aren't entirely at the mercy of China and global supply chains." He notes that the deal involves a $620 million loan from the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital, signaling that the executive branch views domestic magnet production as a matter of national security. The plan is to scale production to 10,000 tonnes annually, a fraction of global output but a vital foothold.

A counterargument worth considering is whether government subsidies can truly compete with the entrenched, low-cost manufacturing ecosystem in China, or if this will simply create a subsidized niche that struggles to scale without perpetual support. However, the author's point about the "epic fumble" of past leadership suggests that the cost of inaction is far higher than the cost of intervention.

"The West invents, China scales — playing out again."

McCormick also touches on the rise of autonomous logistics on Earth, highlighting Poseidon Aerospace's $11 million raise to build ground-effect vehicles. These craft, which ride on a cushion of air just above the water, promise to carry heavier payloads than drones and faster than ships. He invites readers to imagine a future with "big chonky guys skimming around our waters," a vivid image that grounds the high-tech discussion in tangible economic utility.

The Biological and Nuclear Frontier

The commentary then moves to the molecular level, describing a breakthrough in antibody design by the University of Washington. McCormick uses a brilliant analogy to explain the complexity: "If antibodies are keys and epitopes are locks, the way we do antibody discovery today is like trying a box full of keys on the lock until something works, but also, the lock is inside of an animal." He contrasts this with the new AI-driven method, RFdiffusion, which can "look at the lock and design the right key" in weeks rather than years.

This is not just a scientific curiosity; it represents a fundamental shift in how we approach disease. The author notes that a company called Xaira, backed by $1 billion, is advancing this technology. "It remains the worst time in human history to be a disease," McCormick quips, capturing the disruptive potential of this innovation. The argument is that AI is not just optimizing existing processes but is enabling the creation of entirely new biological solutions that were previously impossible to engineer.

Finally, the piece addresses the energy landscape with news from China, which has achieved the first thorium-to-uranium conversion in a molten salt reactor. McCormick points out the irony: "The US ran a MSR on Uranium-233 derived from Thorium in the late 1960s, but we never did the conversion in a MSR itself." He lists the advantages of this technology, including its safety profile and the fact that it produces much less waste. While China is moving toward a 100-megawatt demonstration by 2035, the author expresses a hope that the US will have "dozens of gigawatts of new nuclear power online" by then.

"It remains the worst time in human history to be a disease."

Critics might argue that focusing on thorium is a distraction from the immediate need to deploy existing nuclear technologies, or that the timeline for commercialization is too distant to impact current climate goals. Yet, the piece effectively frames these developments as part of a long-term strategic race where the first mover in these foundational technologies will hold a decisive advantage.

Bottom Line

Packy McCormick's most compelling argument is that the world is undergoing a silent industrial revolution driven by private capital and AI, leaving traditional bureaucratic models struggling to keep pace. The piece's greatest strength is its ability to connect disparate fields—from space data centers to rare earth magnets—into a cohesive narrative of strategic independence and technological acceleration. Its biggest vulnerability is an optimistic bias that may underestimate the regulatory and logistical hurdles that often stall such ambitious projects, but the sheer volume of progress reported makes the case for optimism hard to refute.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Ground-effect vehicle

    The article discusses Poseidon Aerospace building ground-effect vehicles that ride on 'a cushion of air just above the water's surface.' Understanding the physics and history of ground-effect vehicles (including Soviet ekranoplans) would give readers fascinating context for this emerging technology.

  • Rare-earth magnet

    The article extensively discusses Vulcan Elements' work on neodymium magnets and America's loss of rare earth magnet leadership to China. The science behind why these magnets are so powerful and their critical role in EVs, wind turbines, and electronics would deepen reader understanding.

  • Space-based solar power

    The article mentions Google's Project Suncatcher exploring data centers in space to harness solar power, and Star Catcher breaking records for optical power beaming. This concept of collecting solar energy in space and transmitting it to Earth has a rich history of proposals and technical challenges.

Sources

Weekly dose of optimism #169

by Packy McCormick · Not Boring · Read full article

Hi friends,

Happy Friday! Tough week for capitalism in my home city of NYC, but, undeterred, capitalism decided to deliver a week jam-packed with technological and economic miracles. Go humans.

Let’s get to it.

Today’s Weekly Dose is brought to you by… Stripe Startups.

Every venture-backed company — yes, you — should work with Stripe Startups.

Stripe’s mission is to increase the GDP of the internet, and it’s working. Last year, 1.3% of global GDP flowed through Stripe, over $1.4 trillion and growing. 78% of the Forbes AI 50 use Stripe’s financial infrastructure to monetize faster, experiment with pricing, and grow revenue.

As I wrote in my original Deep Dive, Stripe’s strategy from the earliest days has been to make it as easy as possible for startups to begin accepting payments, and then grow with them as they get really big. Little companies become big companies become public companies.

With Stripe Startups, they’re making it even easier.

Stripe Startups is the company’s new program designed to support early-stage, venture-backed businesses as they build, iterate, and scale. Founders enrolled in Stripe Startups get access to credits to offset Stripe fees, expert insights, and a focused community of other founders building on Stripe.

You’re going to use Stripe anyway. Get the white-glove experience.

(1) AN ASTRONOMICALLY BIG WEEK IN SPACE

On Halloween, Casey Handmer wrote a takedown of NASA and Lockheed Martin’s Orion Space Capsule that was so spicy he felt the need to include the following:

Lockheed isn’t Boeing but even so, I am not and have never been suicidal, I have 3 (soon to be 4!) children, and I intend to live a long and productive life.

He also wrote, “My purpose here is to entertain, inform, and motivate.” And while we can’t give Casey all of the credit, the week since he hit publish has seen the most space news since July 1969… we’ll just do it all here.

Jared Isaacman is BACK after President Trump renominated the entrepreneur, pilot, and two-time SpaceX flight self-financer to serve as NASA Administrator. Given his SpaceX flights, Isaacman is closely associated with Elon, and he’s beloved by startups in the industry. If confirmed, he would replace acting administrator Sean Duffy, who Casey depicted as the dog-in-burning-NASA-room in that picture above.

Google is Exploring Data Centers in Space through Project Suncatcher in order to “more of the sun’s power (which emits more power ...