← Back to Library

America's electricity gap

Joey Politano delivers a startling reality check: America's electricity gap isn't a future problem—it's a present crisis driving prices up and forcing the grid to rely on aging coal plants while solar and batteries race to catch up. The most striking claim isn't just that demand is surging, but that the very policies designed to slow renewable growth have failed to stop it, revealing a market momentum that no amount of regulatory friction can easily derail.

The Demand Shock

The core of the argument rests on a fundamental shift in American energy consumption. Politano writes, "US power consumption has risen more in the last two years than over the previous 15 combined." This statistic alone reframes the entire narrative of the energy transition; we are no longer in an era of stagnation but of explosive, unexpected growth. The driver is no longer just residential heating or industrial manufacturing, but the insatiable appetite of the digital economy.

America's electricity gap

As Joey Politano puts it, "If those projections hold true, commercial power consumption will have grown more in the 4 years since ChatGPT's launch than in the two decades prior." This is a profound historical pivot. The author correctly identifies that the source of load growth has shifted, with data centers now outpacing traditional industrial and residential uses combined. Critics might note that this focus on AI risks overshadowing the steady, long-term electrification of transport and heating, which also plays a massive role in the strain on the grid. However, the sheer velocity of the data center boom makes it the immediate flashpoint.

"The return of sustained load growth after more than a decade and a half of stagnation represents a fundamental change in America's energy markets."

The Policy Paradox

Perhaps the most compelling section of the piece is its analysis of the disconnect between federal policy and market reality. Despite the executive branch cutting subsidies, cancelling permits, and imposing tariffs on key inputs, renewable deployment has not stalled. Politano notes, "Solar power growth is projected to slow slightly this year, though remaining near its 2024 pace, before breaking the growth record again in 2027." This suggests that the economic case for solar and batteries has become so strong that it is overriding political headwinds.

The author highlights a frustrating irony: "Their decision to exempt computers and other data center inputs from tariffs while hitting key electrical infrastructure like wires, transformers, and batteries further exacerbates the energy crunch." This policy choice effectively subsidizes the demand (the data centers) while penalizing the supply (the infrastructure needed to power them). The result is a grid forced to keep coal plants online longer than intended. "Legacy US coal plants... are now being retired at the slowest pace since 2010 as grids are forced to keep them online to meet growing demand."

This framing is effective because it moves beyond partisan bickering to show the tangible economic cost of regulatory friction. The grid doesn't care about ideology; it cares about physics and economics. When the administration blocks solar projects, the cost isn't just lost green energy; it's higher prices for everyone. "US residential electricity prices are up more than 40% since 2020 and continue rising," a direct consequence of supply failing to meet the new demand curve.

The Regional Divergence

The piece shines when it zooms in on the geography of the crisis, revealing a stark divide between states that adapt and those that lag. The Sunbelt is emerging as the engine of the new grid. "Texas alone is set to make up 55% of new US battery capacity and 41% of new solar capacity over the next year." This isn't driven by climate idealism but by raw economic necessity. As Politano observes, "They aren't doing it primarily for climate or ideological reasons, but because it's the easiest way to close their electricity gap and power economic growth."

In contrast, the PJM Interconnection, which covers the mid-Atlantic and is a hub for data centers, is struggling to keep pace. While Texas saw generation rise nearly 30% above pre-pandemic levels, PJM is projected to reach only 15% growth by 2027. This disparity highlights a critical vulnerability: the regions with the highest demand growth are not always the ones building the fastest. The historical context of PJM as a major data center construction hub makes this lag particularly dangerous. If the grid cannot be expanded fast enough in these high-demand zones, the economic costs will skyrocket.

The Battery Imperative

The author correctly identifies that solar alone is not the silver bullet; it is the pairing with storage that changes the equation. "The greatest problem with solar is its temporal inconsistency... This problem becomes even more acute when solar makes up a larger share of the grid." The solution is a massive build-out of batteries, which are now growing at a record pace. "Total US battery power capacity... is projected to double over the next two years to almost 90GW."

This shift is already reshaping the labor market. While fossil fuel plants have shed jobs, the renewable sector is adding them. "Electricians and electrical contractors... employment has risen nearly 150k to a new record high." This is a crucial point often missed in the debate: the transition is creating jobs, but only if the permitting and supply chain bottlenecks can be resolved. The author warns that the US is falling behind global peers in deployment speed. "Having already fallen behind on production, the US risks multiplying the pain if it also falls seriously behind on deployment."

"It is not a coincidence that some of America's fastest-growing state economies, like Texas, are also among the fastest deployers of solar and batteries."

Bottom Line

Joey Politano's strongest argument is that market forces have become more powerful than political obstruction in the US energy sector; solar and batteries are growing despite the administration's best efforts to slow them down. The piece's biggest vulnerability is its relative silence on the specific timeline for grid interconnection reforms, which remain the single biggest bottleneck for new projects. The reader should watch for whether the sheer economic pressure of the "electricity gap" will eventually force a policy reversal at the federal level, or if the regional divergence between states like Texas and the rest of the country will deepen into a permanent structural divide.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • PJM Interconnection

    This technical bottleneck explains why record solar deployment is failing to close the electricity gap, as thousands of gigawatts of projects sit stuck waiting for grid approval rather than generating power.

  • List of political parties in Tamil Nadu

    This regulatory mechanism forces grid operators to keep inefficient coal plants online despite market losses, directly illuminating the article's claim that legacy coal is being retained to meet surging AI and industrial demand.

Sources

America's electricity gap

by Joey Politano · Apricitas Economics · Read full article

America has entered another era of electrification—US power consumption has risen more in the last two years than over the previous 15 combined. Yet this hasn’t been nearly enough to meet demand, with electricity prices also rising more over the last 4 years than the prior 14. Demand from AI, heavy industry, heating, and transport is driving load growth but also outstripping growth in power infrastructure—leaving America with an increasingly large electricity gap that’s driving up prices. Projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expect generation to accelerate slightly over the next two years, growing another 4.6% in total, but that’s still not quick enough to close the gap or prevent further price appreciation.

The return of sustained load growth after more than a decade and a half of stagnation represents a fundamental change in America’s energy markets, with the source of rising demand shifting alongside its scale. Indeed, the EIA expects more upcoming load growth to come from commercial entities—a category that includes data centers—than from industrial and residential uses combined. If those projections hold true, commercial power consumption will have grown more in the 4 years since ChatGPT’s launch than in the two decades prior.

The second fundamental change in electricity markets is how the US is meeting the new rise in power demand—by deploying record amounts of renewable energy, primarily solar and batteries. 2025 saw the largest year-on-year increase in US solar generation on record, with total solar power rising 28% to 389TWh. That’s despite the Trump administration cutting subsidies to wind and solar production, cancelling permitting approvals for major projects, and imposing tariffs on many of the sector’s key inputs. Solar power growth is projected to slow slightly this year, though remaining near its 2024 pace, before breaking the growth record again in 2027.

In other words, solar power will be meeting the majority of US load growth for the first time in history. Yet America has fallen significantly behind both China and the European Union in terms of solar energy deployment, even on a per-capita basis. Legacy US coal plants, which have been closing for decades as they’ve been outcompeted by natural gas and solar, are now being retired at the slowest pace since 2010 as grids are forced to keep them online to meet growing demand. America was one of only a few major countries that increased coal power production in 2025, a ...