This isn't a typical broadcast analysis. Michael Walker and Ash Saka are doing something rarer: live "PM Debate Bingo" while predicting exactly what each party leader will say — before they say it. They're essentially crowd-sourcing the predictable phrases ("my dad was a tool maker," "this election is about the future") to make the viewing experience more entertaining. The stakes matter because polling suggests Sunak has almost no path to victory, and the hosts are dissecting exactly how that plays out on stage.
The Build-Up
Novara Media opens with genuine anticipation. They note that "one of the things that really came across in that last debate is how tense" it was — describing what viewers actually witnessed: "a sort of a match where both of them just really were happy with a draw." This framing matters because it sets up expectations for something different this time.
They predict "there's going to be a bit more fire and brimstone" based on two key developments since the last debate: the Tory party Manifesto release and what they call the D-Day scandal. The hosts walk through how Sky selected who goes first — with a literal red/blue ball draw in a bag — and explain that K Starmer's red ball came out first, meaning he goes first.
The format is clarified: this isn't technically a debate but rather "a sort of Question Time situation then an interview" followed by audience questions. The hosts prepare viewers with their drinking game — when predictable lines get used, take a drink.
The Polling Problem
Novara Media makes perhaps its sharpest observation about what Sunak can actually achieve: "short of that I don't think there's going to be anything that will really change people's minds." They acknowledge the best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is essentially hoping "K Starmer somehow manages to fall out of a window on his way out of the TV studio." The hosts note most undecided voters have already broken for Labour, and "I really don't think there's much that Rishi can do."
They introduce what appears to be the current Tory strategy — "they just want to lose not as badly as they could lose" — with Grant Shaps saying the party doesn't want Labour to have a super majority. This is positioned as desperation rather than election competitiveness.
The hosts are essentially arguing that Labour's actual strategy has worked: make voters not scared of K Starmer, and they'll vote Labour when the Tory collapse happens.
The Labour Paradox
The hosts raise an interesting tension they've identified in Labour's positioning: "the public aren't scared of K starma and that's going to be very good for the Labour party at this general election." But they immediately flag what they see as a vulnerability: "that's not to give them sort of a pass with flying colors because when they get into government they're going to be in a very difficult situation which is they've got a leader that no one really has any enthusiasm towards."
The critical observation follows: "no one's really going to give them the benefit of the doubt if things start to go wrong because not being scared of a prime minister is not really good enough once they're actually prime minister." This is their core argument — that Labour's safe approach may win the election but creates a problem for governing when decisions get harder.
They also predict K Starmer will be "very very happy with how this election campaign is going" because Sunak keeps effing up, while also giving Labour credit: "their strategy has you know really worked up to this point."
The Green Manifesto Debate
Ash Saka ventures into personal territory — they reveal they're voting Green because of the shooting policy. They describe refusing to vote Labour due to "Labor's absolutely appalling response to Israel's bombardment of Gaza their refusal to call it a genocide." This is framed as principle over electoral strategy.
When discussing the Green Manifesto, they note "the areas where I do just fundamentally disagree with the greens is on HS2" — supporting HS2 but finding Greens opposed when high-speed rail was offered. They also dispute "the rationale that they've offered for it" and are now "increasingly of the mind that we probably do need nuclear power."
The hosts end by predicting Reform UK will "come close but won't quite make it" in major polls, with faith that "they've perhaps hit their Rock Bottom." The final line acknowledges the audience interaction: "if you can guess in the comments you win absolutely nothing other than my respect."
Counterpoints
A reasonable counterargument is that Novara Media might be underestimating how undecided voters could shift — previous elections have shown debates and moments can move significant numbers. Additionally, their characterization of Labour's strategy as purely about not being scary oversimplifies actual policy differences between the parties.
They also assume undecideds will break for Labour without considering what happens if neither candidate performs well in the debate itself.
Bottom Line
Novara Media's strongest contribution is identifying that Labour's safe approach may be effective for winning an election but creates a governing problem — voters won't extend "benefit of the doubt" to someone they're not enthusiastic about. Their weakest assumption is that polling positions are fixed rather than fluid, which historically underestimates how quickly voter preferences can shift during campaign events. The most interesting question remains what happens on July 5th when Starmer switches from election mode to actual governance — that's where their analysis might diverge from conventional wisdom.