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Joey votto: Best, worst, outliers, and oddities

Tom Stone doesn't just recount the statistics of a retiring baseball star; he constructs a forensic case for why Joey Votto's career defies the standard metrics of Hall of Fame eligibility. While the sports world often fixates on home run totals or postseason glory, Stone pivots to a more nuanced argument: that Votto's ability to get on base represents a level of offensive dominance that places him in the highest echelon of baseball history, regardless of his lack of a championship ring. This is not a eulogy for a player, but an analytical dismantling of why the game's most traditional fans might be undervaluing one of its most intelligent performers.

The Case for the On-Base Machine

Stone begins by grounding his argument in the raw data, noting that Votto's career slash line of .294/.409/.511 with a 144 OPS+ ranks seventh among all players with significant playing time since 2007, trailing only modern titans like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. The author's framing is deliberate here; he strips away the noise of team success to focus on individual efficiency. "Votto's 144 OPS+ ranks 7th amongst players with 2,000+ plate appearances, behind only Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and David Ortiz," Stone writes, immediately establishing a peer group that transcends the era of Votto's prime.

Joey votto: Best, worst, outliers, and oddities

The core of Stone's argument rests on the idea that Votto was a master of selection rather than just power. He highlights that Votto led the league in walks five times and on-base percentage seven times, a testament to a discipline that is increasingly rare. "There's only a certain percentage of the strike zone that you can do extra-base hit, barrel damage with the ball. Just because it's in the strike zone doesn't mean you have to take a cut at it," Votto is quoted as saying, a sentiment Stone uses to illustrate the player's unique cognitive approach to the game. This evidence holds up well; the data confirms that Votto's value was not in volume, but in the quality of every single plate appearance.

Critics might argue that a Hall of Fame career requires a championship or a dominant postseason performance, both of which were missing from Votto's resume. Stone acknowledges this gap, noting his modest postseason slash line of .244/.319/.244, but counters that the regular season dominance should carry the weight. "In my view, although his traditional counting stats are not huge, Votto should and will be elected into the Hall of Fame," Stone asserts, predicting a multi-year ballot process rather than an immediate induction. This is a reasonable, if cautious, assessment that respects the historical weight of the institution while challenging its traditional biases.

"Hitting is very challenging, you never get it solved." - Joey Votto, as quoted by Stone, perfectly encapsulating the intellectual humility that defined Votto's approach to a game that often rewards arrogance.

A Franchise's Silent Anchor

The commentary then shifts to Votto's relationship with the Cincinnati Reds, where he spent his entire major league career. Stone meticulously breaks down Votto's standing on the franchise's all-time leaderboards, revealing a player who is statistically woven into the fabric of the team's history. He ranks fourth in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and second in on-base percentage, trailing only legends like Pete Rose and Joe Morgan. Stone points out that Votto's 1,365 walks are first all-time for the Reds, a statistic that underscores his patience.

Stone's analysis of Votto's splits reveals a player who was remarkably consistent regardless of the environment. He notes that Votto hit .289/.413/.517 at home and .299/.406/.506 on the road, a rarity for a player whose success often depends on specific park factors. "He hit very consistently between night and day games: .294/.410/.512 at night, and .296/.408/.509 during day games," Stone observes, reinforcing the idea that Votto's skill was internal and portable, not dependent on external circumstances. This consistency is a powerful argument for his greatness, suggesting a player who could be trusted to perform regardless of the variables.

However, the piece also touches on the oddities that made Votto a unique figure in the sport. Born in Toronto, he is the second-most valuable Canadian player in history by WAR, trailing only Larry Walker. Stone notes that Votto was described by teammates as a "magnificent weirdo" and "a genius," a characterization that fits a man who studied Spanish in his retirement and played competitive chess. "Votto was described in a 2021 profile in The Athletic as perhaps 'the most interesting man in baseball'," Stone writes, adding a layer of human interest that elevates the statistical analysis. This framing is effective because it explains why Votto's career felt different; he was operating on a different wavelength than his peers.

The Final Verdict on a Unique Career

Stone concludes by addressing the inevitable question of what comes next for Votto. With his retirement announcement and his recent stint in the minor leagues with the Blue Jays, the author speculates on his future in broadcasting or coaching. "From a few interviews I've seen, I suspect we'll see him back in the game at some point in some capacity, perhaps in the broadcast booth or doing analysis/commentary," Stone suggests, leaning on Votto's reputation for deep analytical thinking. The author also notes Votto's recent ejection in his final game, a fittingly dramatic end to a career defined by his intense engagement with the rules of the game.

The strongest part of Stone's coverage is his refusal to let Votto's lack of a championship define his legacy. By focusing on the granular details of his on-base skills and his historical ranking among first basemen, he builds a compelling case that Votto's value was often misunderstood by the casual observer. The biggest vulnerability in the argument is the reliance on advanced metrics like WAR and OPS+, which, while robust, can sometimes alienate traditionalists who prefer counting stats like home runs and RBIs. Stone navigates this by providing both sets of numbers, but the true power of his piece lies in his ability to translate those numbers into a narrative about a player who was simply better at the fundamental act of hitting than almost anyone else.

Bottom Line

Tom Stone's piece is a masterclass in re-evaluating a career through the lens of efficiency rather than volume, successfully arguing that Joey Votto's on-base mastery deserves a place among the game's immortals. While the lack of postseason glory remains a legitimate hurdle for immediate Hall of Fame induction, Stone's data-driven approach makes a convincing case that Votto's regular season dominance was of a caliber that history will eventually recognize. The reader is left with a clear understanding that Votto was not just a good player, but a singular force who redefined what it meant to be a first baseman.

Sources

Joey votto: Best, worst, outliers, and oddities

Issue #196

Reds 1B Joey Votto, who turned 41 a few days ago, recently announced his retirement from baseball. He was with the Blue Jays organization this year, playing in 31 games in their minor league system—but the Reds is the only team he’s ever played for at the major league level.

From a few interviews I’ve seen, I suspect we’ll see him back in the game at some point in some capacity, perhaps in the broadcast booth or doing analysis/commentary on ESPN, MLB Network, or elsewhere. Or I’m sure he could get into coaching, starting say as a hitting instructor in the minor leagues or Caribbean (hint: he has been studying Spanish lately.)

As I’ve done for a couple of Hall of Famers who passed away in recent years (Gaylord Perry and Brooks Robinson), I decided to do a little digging into Votto’s career numbers. So this is the latest in my player profile series that I’m calling “Best, Worst, Outliers, and Oddities.”

Standard Numbers and Accolades.

Before I get to some more unique bits of interest, here are the standard numbers and accolades that reviews of Joey Votto’s playing career usually include:

Played in the majors for 17 seasons, from 2007-2023, all with the Cincinnati Reds.

He was NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2008 (the winner was Cubs’ Catcher Geovany Soto).

He was a six-time All-Star, 2010 NL MVP, and 2011 Gold Glove Award winner. He narrowly missed winning a second MVP in 2017 when he tied Giancarlo Stanton with 10 first-place votes but came up short overall (302 vote points to 300).

He led the NL with 40 doubles in 2011, led the league in walks five times, and OBP seven times.

Scored 100+ runs five times, hit 30+ HR three times (with three more seasons of 29 HR), and had 100+ RBI three times.

Career slash line of.294/.409/.511 with a 144 OPS+. For the seasons 2007-2023, Votto’s 144 OPS+ ranks 7th amongst players with 2,000+ plate appearances, behind only Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and David Ortiz.

During that same span of years he ranks third in total bWAR with 64.5, behind only Trout (85.2) and Mookie Betts (64.8).

Amongst all players in MLB history who played the majority of their games at 1B, Votto’s 64.5 bWAR ranks 13th behind Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger ...