Dave Borlace delivers a counterintuitive warning that cuts through the noise of climate denial: the very cold snaps making headlines in the United States are not evidence against global warming, but rather a direct, dangerous consequence of it. While the public often fixates on record-breaking heat, Borlace argues that the most immediate threat to American agriculture and infrastructure is a destabilized jet stream causing extreme winter volatility. This piece is notable for its ability to translate complex fluid dynamics into a narrative about why the Midwest is drowning and freezing simultaneously, offering a scientific explanation for the weather chaos that feels more urgent than the usual temperature graphs.
The Paradox of the Cold
Borlace begins by highlighting the disconnect between global data and local experience. He notes that while the World Meteorological Organization reports record-high greenhouse gas concentrations, millions of Americans have endured "one of the coldest winters on record." This contrast is the hook. Borlace writes, "perhaps it's no wonder that many folks in the United States had some sympathy with [the administration] earlier this year when they so eloquently proclaimed that America would benefit from a little bit of that good old global warming." The author uses this political sentiment not to validate it, but to set up a scientific rebuttal. The framing is sharp; it acknowledges the public's confusion without dismissing their lived reality, only to pivot toward the mechanism that explains it.
The core of the argument rests on the behavior of the jet stream. Borlace explains that as the atmosphere warms, it captures more moisture, leading to the relentless flooding that devastated US crops in 2019. He cites the US Department of Agriculture's report that only 58% of corn was planted due to rain. "American farmers especially those in the Midwest are becoming more and more resigned to the fact that the weather is getting just plain weird," Borlace observes. This observation grounds the abstract concept of climate change in the tangible economic reality of food supply chains. The argument lands because it connects the dots between a warming planet and the specific, devastating failures of the harvest, rather than just talking about rising sea levels.
As the atmosphere warms it's capturing more and more moisture about seven percent more for every one degree Celsius of temperature increase.
The Mechanics of a Wobbly Sky
To explain why a warming world brings freezing air, Borlace turns to the jet stream. He simplifies the physics: the jet stream is driven by the temperature difference between the equator and the poles. As the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet—a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification—this temperature gradient shrinks. "The bigger the difference in temperature between the equator in the poles that bigger the gradient is for the air to travel along and so the faster it goes," Borlace explains. Conversely, as the Arctic heats up, the jet stream slows down and begins to meander.
This meandering creates "blocking events" where cold Arctic air gets trapped and pushed south. Borlace describes how the polar vortex can lose its circular shape and become "all wobbly," leading to "a massive blob of arctic air crashed down across the whole of the United States like a freight train." The imagery is visceral and effective. It transforms a meteorological technicality into a narrative of a system breaking down. Critics might note that solar activity and natural variability also play roles in weather patterns, but Borlace addresses this by pointing to the frequency and duration of these events. He argues that while cold snaps aren't new, they are "happening more often," "more severe," and "sticking around for far longer."
The Science of the Blocking Event
The piece strengthens its case by citing recent research from Rice University. Borlace highlights a study that found a "strong link between the size of these blocking events and the changing characteristics of the jet stream." The researchers used a technique called the Buckingham PI theorem to model these events, finally finding a scaling law that matched reality. "Once those factors were included in the calculations the models retrospective predictions suddenly work beautifully," Borlace writes. This is a crucial moment in the argument; it moves the discussion from theory to predictive modeling.
The findings are stark. The models predict that the area of blocking events in the northern hemisphere will increase by as much as 17% due to human-caused climate change. Borlace concludes with a direct challenge to the idea that cold weather negates warming: "mr. Trump I'm really not sure the United States would benefit from a bit of that good old-fashioned global warming." He lists the full spectrum of consequences: droughts, wildfires, violent storms, and the ironic Arctic blasts. The argument is that the energy added to the system doesn't just make it hotter; it makes it more chaotic and violent in every direction.
That good old global warming has also put huge amounts of extra energy and moisture into our atmosphere which causes far more violent life-threatening storms.
Bottom Line
Borlace's strongest asset is his ability to reframe the "cold snap" narrative from a denialist talking point into a symptom of the very crisis it is used to deny. By anchoring the discussion in the mechanics of the jet stream and backed by new scaling laws, he provides a robust scientific explanation for the weather chaos. The argument's vulnerability lies in its reliance on the public accepting that a warmer planet can produce colder extremes, a concept that requires a leap of logic for many. However, the evidence presented regarding the 17% increase in blocking events suggests that this volatility is not a temporary glitch, but a new, dangerous normal.