← Back to Library

Weekend update #171: The week helped Putin commit two war crimes

The Week That Changed Tactics

Phillips P. O'Brien's latest update captures a turning point in the war's brutal logic. Two massive bombardments in quick succession. Nearly 1,000 drones and 110 missiles. A deliberate shift from periodic strikes to overwhelming civilian infrastructure attacks while American leadership propagated false assurances of humanitarian restraint.

A Frozen Staircase

The Russian military changed its rhythm. Instead of building toward one large attack every ten days, it accumulated weapons for two hammer blows within days. The first, February 2-3, unleashed 450 drones and 71 missiles. The second, February 6-7, nearly matched it. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most—but not enough.

Weekend update #171: The week helped Putin commit two war crimes

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "These combined Russian attacks are easily the most devastating of the war on Ukrainian civilian life."

Kyiv received four to six hours of electricity per day. Temperatures dropped to minus 21 degrees Celsius. The targeting was geographic and sequential: east first, then west, stretching air defenses until they fractured.

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "It was a well-thought out war crime."

The timing mattered. While Washington suggested Putin had agreed to a humanitarian pause on attacking heating and power infrastructure, Russian forces were massing weapons for the largest double tap of the war. The promise expired the night the missiles fell.

"So the President of the USA was an accomplice and propagandist for the Russian dictator as Putin built up the forces needed to launch what could be called the largest Russian war crime so far."

Europe Must Be at the Table

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent a year avoiding offense toward the American administration. The pantomime of negotiations—knowing Washington is not a neutral arbitrator but crafting deals favoring Russian interests—has required biting tongues and praising efforts for peace.

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "The fact that the Ukrainians would publicly admit that they know Trump and Putin are on the cusp of working out a deal about Ukraine without Ukrainian input shows how worried they are."

Zelensky disclosed Ukrainian intelligence about a bilateral "Dmitriev Agreement"—a supposed 12 trillion dollar economic cooperation package between Washington and Moscow. The sum is fantastical; Russia is too poor. But the corruption potential is real.

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "What there almost certainly will be is historic levels of corruption as the Russians funnel massive amounts to the administration in payment for all their exceptional service over the last year."

The Ukrainian appeal to Europe is explicit: Europeans must demand a role in these talks. The future of Europe is being decided without Europeans at the table.

Critics might note that European leaders have been hesitant to assert independence from American mediation throughout this conflict, and sudden demands for inclusion may face institutional resistance in Washington.

The India Lie

The American administration announced that India had pledged to stop buying Russian oil and replace those purchases with American supplies. The press reported it as fact. The Indians released the actual agreement text two days later.

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "There is not a single word about India stopping the purchase of Russian oil, of replacing such purchases of Russian oil with American oil, etc."

The text states India "intends to purchase" 500 billion dollars of American energy products over five years—an intention, not a commitment. In exchange, India gains access to advanced American processors. Russian oil sales to India modestly reduced after October sanctions announcements, but Russian sales to China increased far more.

Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "Its clear now that Trump is defending Russia and protecting Russia."

Bottom Line

This piece documents institutional betrayal at the highest level: false humanitarian assurances enabling civilian infrastructure attacks, bilateral deals negotiated without the affected nation's input, and press complicity in reporting lies as possible truths. Phillips P. O'Brien's framing—war crimes facilitated by American propaganda—centers the human cost over diplomatic theater. The verdict: when mediation becomes manipulation, the mediated must find other mediators. Europe's choice is now unavoidable.

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

Sources

Weekend update #171: The week helped Putin commit two war crimes

by Phillips P. O'Brien · Phillips P. O'Brien · Read full article

Hi All,

It was an extraordinary week in one way and an absolutely predictable one in another. In the predictable way, Donald Trump aided the Russian war effort by deliberately supporting a Russian narrative which was designed to fool Ukraine and Ukraine supporters. It was extraordinary in that this happened as part of a more coordinated Russian attack/war crime operation than we have seen before. The Russians used what was clearly now a period of restocking and preparation, presented by Trump as a humanitarian moment, to change tactics and unleash two attacks in relatively quick succession on Ukrainian civilian targets. They seem to have done some serious damage.

There were two other stories worthy of note. There was talk of the outline of a US-Russian economic (bribe) plan that might come into force regardless of what happens. It highlighted the need for the US not to be allowed to be the sole mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Europeans need to demand a role in these talks—and the Ukrainians are desperate for them to do so. Finally, Trump lies about India not buying any more Russian oil and the press maddeningly reports it as a possible truth.

Before we get to the heart of the update, I did want to extend thanks again to those readers who support Come Back Alive. Amazingly, after posting the link to support CBA’s Dronefall project for a second time in last weekend’s update, the money raised more than doubled. That means that you have provided funds to buy well more than 20 anti-drone/UAVs of the type that Ukraine desperately needs now. So while Trump is helping Putin kill and freeze Ukrainians, you are helping them live.

The Week Trump Helped Putin Commit Two War Crimes.

The Russians changed tactics this week. What they have been doing in the months before this is building up for regular large missile/drone attacks every 10 days or so, and interspersing those with mostly UAV-only raids. This one large raid tactic, was helped a great deal by US slow-walking air defense to Ukraine and has helped Russia do significant damage to Ukraine’s power generation and heating infrastructure.

However, these Russian attacks have not been capable of driving Ukraine out of the war. And actually in the coming weeks, time will turn against this campaign. Though it probably does not seem like it in Ukraine, winter will end and the temperatures ...