The Week That Changed Tactics
Phillips P. O'Brien's latest update captures a turning point in the war's brutal logic. Two massive bombardments in quick succession. Nearly 1,000 drones and 110 missiles. A deliberate shift from periodic strikes to overwhelming civilian infrastructure attacks while American leadership propagated false assurances of humanitarian restraint.
A Frozen Staircase
The Russian military changed its rhythm. Instead of building toward one large attack every ten days, it accumulated weapons for two hammer blows within days. The first, February 2-3, unleashed 450 drones and 71 missiles. The second, February 6-7, nearly matched it. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most—but not enough.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "These combined Russian attacks are easily the most devastating of the war on Ukrainian civilian life."
Kyiv received four to six hours of electricity per day. Temperatures dropped to minus 21 degrees Celsius. The targeting was geographic and sequential: east first, then west, stretching air defenses until they fractured.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "It was a well-thought out war crime."
The timing mattered. While Washington suggested Putin had agreed to a humanitarian pause on attacking heating and power infrastructure, Russian forces were massing weapons for the largest double tap of the war. The promise expired the night the missiles fell.
"So the President of the USA was an accomplice and propagandist for the Russian dictator as Putin built up the forces needed to launch what could be called the largest Russian war crime so far."
Europe Must Be at the Table
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent a year avoiding offense toward the American administration. The pantomime of negotiations—knowing Washington is not a neutral arbitrator but crafting deals favoring Russian interests—has required biting tongues and praising efforts for peace.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "The fact that the Ukrainians would publicly admit that they know Trump and Putin are on the cusp of working out a deal about Ukraine without Ukrainian input shows how worried they are."
Zelensky disclosed Ukrainian intelligence about a bilateral "Dmitriev Agreement"—a supposed 12 trillion dollar economic cooperation package between Washington and Moscow. The sum is fantastical; Russia is too poor. But the corruption potential is real.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "What there almost certainly will be is historic levels of corruption as the Russians funnel massive amounts to the administration in payment for all their exceptional service over the last year."
The Ukrainian appeal to Europe is explicit: Europeans must demand a role in these talks. The future of Europe is being decided without Europeans at the table.
Critics might note that European leaders have been hesitant to assert independence from American mediation throughout this conflict, and sudden demands for inclusion may face institutional resistance in Washington.
The India Lie
The American administration announced that India had pledged to stop buying Russian oil and replace those purchases with American supplies. The press reported it as fact. The Indians released the actual agreement text two days later.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "There is not a single word about India stopping the purchase of Russian oil, of replacing such purchases of Russian oil with American oil, etc."
The text states India "intends to purchase" 500 billion dollars of American energy products over five years—an intention, not a commitment. In exchange, India gains access to advanced American processors. Russian oil sales to India modestly reduced after October sanctions announcements, but Russian sales to China increased far more.
Phillips P. O'Brien writes, "Its clear now that Trump is defending Russia and protecting Russia."
Bottom Line
This piece documents institutional betrayal at the highest level: false humanitarian assurances enabling civilian infrastructure attacks, bilateral deals negotiated without the affected nation's input, and press complicity in reporting lies as possible truths. Phillips P. O'Brien's framing—war crimes facilitated by American propaganda—centers the human cost over diplomatic theater. The verdict: when mediation becomes manipulation, the mediated must find other mediators. Europe's choice is now unavoidable.