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Crosspost: Brian klaas: The great cognitive divide

Brad DeLong amplifies a chilling hypothesis from Brian Klaas: artificial intelligence will not democratize intelligence but rather calcify a new hierarchy where the cognitively prepared soar while everyone else atrophies. This is not another breathless prediction of job displacement, but a sobering look at how automation might permanently degrade human critical thinking for those who lack the discipline to use it as a tool rather than a crutch.

The Autopilot Trap

DeLong introduces Klaas's argument by grounding it in a catastrophic real-world failure. He writes, "The pilots... were unprepared when the machine failed," referencing the Air France Flight 447 disaster where reliance on autopilot left crews unable to handle manual flight when sensors malfunctioned. This historical anchor is crucial; it moves the conversation from abstract theory to life-or-death consequences of cognitive offloading.

Crosspost: Brian klaas: The great cognitive divide

DeLong paraphrases Klaas's observation that we are already seeing this in mundane skills, noting how London cab drivers who memorize maps retain enlarged hippocampi while GPS-dependent generations lose spatial memory. The argument gains weight when DeLong cites emerging data: "A 2026 study shows evidence that when people use AI to help them with a tasks, they become less persistent, give up more quickly when learning something, and have reduced overall performance." This suggests the risk isn't just about making mistakes, but about losing the very muscle required to struggle through complex problems.

Critics might argue that early studies on Large Language Models are still preliminary and that human adaptability has historically overcome technological disruption. However, DeLong emphasizes that this specific technology targets the process of thinking itself, not just the output, making the atrophy risk unique compared to previous industrial revolutions.

Use it, or lose it.

The Cognitive Gym

The piece's most potent metaphor arrives when DeLong explains Klaas's "cognitive gym" analogy. He writes, "Artificial intelligence can provide a function that's a bit like humanity's cognitive gym... AI can act like an amplifier, further driving a decisive wedge between two groups of people." The framing is elegant: the technology itself is neutral, but its effect depends entirely on the user's baseline capability.

DeLong highlights the danger of the "lower floor" AI creates. He notes that "mediocre outputs are now absurdly easy to create," allowing those satisfied with average work to stop exercising their minds entirely. Conversely, for the skilled, "artificial intelligence has also raised the ceiling of possibility." DeLong illustrates this with the example of a mathematician who can use AI to explore "stubborn problems faster... allowing her to focus more time on the truly difficult mathematical frontiers of knowledge."

This distinction between substitution and complementation is where the economic analysis shines. DeLong explains that for some, AI replaces thought (substitution), leading to decline; for others, it augments thought (complementation), leading to exponential growth. He writes, "For the mathematician... artificial intelligence doesn't offload their critical thinking; it amplifies their intellectual effectiveness." The implication is stark: we are heading toward a bifurcation where the gap between the cognitively elite and the rest of society widens not just in wealth, but in fundamental human capacity.

The Illusion of Competence

DeLong warns against the seductive trap of looking capable without being so. He describes users who act like "a lazy steroid user who may be tempted to use a forklift to lift weights," producing outputs that "pass as polished prose (but is bereft of original intellectual nutrients)." This visual effectively captures the disconnect between appearance and reality in an AI-saturated world.

The commentary also touches on global inequality, noting that while AI offers a "better tutor than they could ever hope to pay for previously" for ambitious individuals in developing nations, it cannot overcome structural barriers. DeLong quotes Stephen Jay Gould's reflection on talent wasted in "cotton fields and sweatshops," warning that the net social effect of AI may be "a world of more severe economic inequality... ushering in the Silicon Valley tech bro's ultimate fantasy of a permanent underclass." The argument here is that technology alone cannot fix systemic poverty; it will likely accelerate the divergence between those with the resources to leverage it and those without.

Critics might note that this view assumes a static educational system, whereas schools could theoretically adapt to teach AI literacy as a core critical thinking skill. Yet DeLong remains skeptical, suggesting that market forces and advertising models are actively pushing users toward passive consumption rather than active engagement.

Bottom Line

DeLong's curation of Klaas's work offers the most compelling framework yet for understanding the long-term societal risk of AI: it is not about machines taking over, but about humans voluntarily handing over their agency. The argument's greatest strength is its focus on the process of cognition rather than just the product, revealing a vulnerability that current policy debates largely ignore. However, the piece leaves readers with an unresolved challenge: if we know this divide is forming, what specific systems can we build to force the cognitive engagement necessary to prevent it?

Deep Dives

Explore these related deep dives:

  • Life After Google: The Fall of Big Data and the Rise of the Blockchain Economy Amazon · Better World Books by George Gilder

  • Dunning–Kruger effect

    This cognitive bias explains the mechanism behind the 'mediocre work' described in the article, where individuals with low ability fail to recognize their own incompetence and thus lack the motivation to use AI as a tool for improvement.

  • Flynn effect

    This phenomenon of rising IQ scores over the 20th century provides a historical baseline to test Klaas's fear that AI might reverse human cognitive gains by removing the need for mental struggle.

  • Cognitive load

    Understanding this specific psychological mechanism explains how relying on external tools like calculators or search engines can structurally degrade the internal neural pathways required for deep critical thinking.

Sources

Crosspost: Brian klaas: The great cognitive divide

You need to learn how to use a gym before you can benefit from it..

Brian Klaas’s central thesis here is that AI works like a cognitive gym. It amplifies the capable, motivated, and well-prepared in critical thinking, motivation, and ability to learn, while letting everyone else stagnate or regress. Mediocre work is trivial to produce, hence those who are satisfied producing it never exercise their cognition muscles. But AI has raised the ceiling for those who can genuinely leverage it. Those with critical thinking, curiosity, willingness to struggle with hard problems skills can use AI to displace “the boring, tedious tasks that add nothing to your intellectual experience of being alive”.

The “but” unmentioned here is that for many people producing mediocre work is boring and tedious—and that includes the work of trying to derive entertainment from reading books! Doing mediocre work with trivial effort leaves more time and energy to do the other things that are the core of your life. I am attracted to the argument that you are a more capable mind and a better person if you are trained to approach the world through the print-channel and the calculation-programming-channel rather than simply watching short-form videos. I strongly think that everyone needs to have an AI info-butler asking them every five minutes: is this really the best use of your time?

Even given all that, I still am on Brian Klaas’s side here: we need to construct systems to force people to become more book-learning focused and thus more literary then our technologies and their advertising-focused market harnesses are pushing them to be.

But there is a big problem: How?

CROSSPOST: BRIAN KLAAS: The Great Cognitive Divide.

<https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/the-great-cognitive-divide>

How AI could ensure the smart get smarter while everyone else gets left behind

Brian Klaas

Jun 30, 2026

Much has been written about the potential and perils of artificial intelligence. Tech bros fawn over it as a get-rich-quick panacea of emancipatory potential, making grandiose plans to use their well-padded crypto accounts to upload their brains into the eternal ether. Billionaire CEOs salivate at productivity gains and soaring profit margins without those pesky corresponding payrolls.

By contrast, social scientists—and many concerned citizens—worry about its disruptive impact on mass employment and the existential risk it could introduce into an already fragile global system.

For many, the reaction to artificial intelligence is all-or-nothing; a disaster for humanity that hollows out ...