Most supply chain crises are about volume—too many trucks, not enough ships. Brian Potter flips that script by arguing the real bottleneck isn't logistics, but physics. In his latest deep dive for Construction Physics, Potter contends that helium isn't just another commodity that can be swapped out when prices spike; it is a unique element with irreplaceable properties that underpin everything from medical imaging to the chips in your phone.
The Physics of Scarcity
Potter begins by dismantling the assumption that abundance equals availability. While helium is the second most common element in the universe, he notes that "here on earth it's not so easy to get." Because the gas is so light, it rises through the atmosphere and eventually escapes into space, meaning we are mining a finite, non-renewable resource trapped in underground pockets of natural gas.
The geopolitical stakes have never been higher. Potter points out that the recent conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have exposed a fragile dependency: "Qatar is responsible for roughly 1/3rd of the world's supply of helium, which was formerly transported through the Strait of Hormuz in specialized containers." With the US government having sold off its strategic reserve in 2024, the market has lost its safety net. As Potter observes, "Helium prices have spiked, suppliers are declaring force majeure, and businesses are scrambling to deal with looming shortages."
This framing is crucial because it shifts the conversation from simple price gouging to a structural vulnerability. Unlike oil, where you can sometimes switch fuel sources or efficiency measures, Potter argues that "technologies and processes that rely on those properties can't easily switch to some other material."
Helium has a unique set of properties — in particular, it has a lower melting point and boiling point than any other element — and technologies and processes that rely on those properties can't easily switch to some other material.
The Cold Hard Truth
The core of Potter's argument rests on thermodynamics. He explains that liquid helium boils at just 4.2 kelvin, a temperature so low that "if you need to cool something to just a few degrees above absolute zero, liquid helium is essentially the only practical way to do that." This isn't a preference; it's a hard limit of the periodic table.
This constraint creates a massive dependency in the semiconductor industry. Potter writes that the sector uses around 25% of the world's helium, and unlike other uses, demand is projected to surge. "Some sources claim that helium consumed by the semiconductor industry is expected to rise by a factor of five by 2035," he notes, driven by the need for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. These machines require helium because, unlike other gases, it "absorbs almost no EUV radiation," making it indispensable for the next generation of computing.
Critics might argue that market forces will eventually force innovation, perhaps leading to new cooling technologies that bypass helium entirely. However, Potter's analysis suggests that the timeline for such breakthroughs is far too long to mitigate the immediate supply shock. The physics simply doesn't allow for a quick pivot.
Beyond the Balloon
Perhaps the most surprising revelation in Potter's piece is the sheer volume of helium required for critical infrastructure beyond party balloons. He details how MRI machines, which rely on superconducting magnets, consume 17% of US helium. While modern "zero boil-off" systems are reducing this demand, the existing fleet of 50,000 machines remains a massive consumer.
The argument extends to fiber optics, where helium is used to prevent bubbles from forming between glass layers during manufacturing. "Roughly 5-6% of helium worldwide is used for the production of optical fiber, and there's no known alternative," Potter states. This connects to a broader theme in his work: the invisible infrastructure of modern life. Just as the atmosphere's composition was critical to the development of early mass spectrometers and SQUIDs (Superconducting Quantum Interference Devices), helium remains the silent enabler of our most advanced sensors and communication networks.
Potter also highlights the aerospace sector, where helium is used as a purge gas for liquid hydrogen and oxygen tanks. He notes that NASA is the single biggest user of helium in the US, yet even here, efficiency gains have been made. A 2010 report suggested that recycling could dramatically cut consumption, and indeed, aerospace use has fallen from 26% of total US consumption to just 7% over the last decade.
Reducing doesn't mean eliminating, and it's interesting to me how in so many cases there doesn't seem to be any good substitute for helium.
Bottom Line
Brian Potter's analysis is a masterclass in distinguishing between a logistical problem and a physical one. His strongest point is the demonstration that for high-tech applications like EUV lithography and superconducting magnets, there is no substitute for helium's unique thermal properties. The piece's greatest vulnerability lies in its reliance on current market projections; if the price spike becomes severe enough, it could accelerate the R&D for alternative cooling methods faster than anticipated. However, until that breakthrough occurs, the world remains tethered to a finite, geographically concentrated, and increasingly volatile supply chain.