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Low cost munitions, higher quantity ships

This piece from Defense Tech and Acquisition delivers a stark, unvarnished diagnosis: the military's entire planning architecture is obsolete, not because of a lack of technology, but because of a failure to update the underlying logic of war. While other outlets focus on the specs of new hardware, this editorial argues that the very documents guiding global conflict—Operational Plans, or OPLANs—are relics of a bygone era, rendering them useless against modern threats. The urgency is palpable, driven by a specific claim that the "physics of the battlefield" have fundamentally shifted, demanding a rewrite of doctrine from first principles rather than incremental tweaks.

The Obsolescence of Planning

The article opens with a blunt assessment from retired Rear Admiral Lorin Selby, who asserts that the strategic frameworks currently in use are disconnected from reality. "Every OPLAN in every military headquarters in the world is now obsolete," the piece reports, quoting Selby directly. This is not hyperbole; it is a structural critique of a system designed for a slower world that cannot adapt to the speed of modern conflict. The editors note that Ukraine has already compressed the "kill chain"—the time between detecting a target and striking it—to mere minutes, turning electronic warfare into an hourly contest. This reality renders decades of legacy planning models, which assumed linear progression and predictable timelines, ineffective.

Low cost munitions, higher quantity ships

The argument extends beyond technology to the human element of strategy. The piece suggests that promotion criteria within the military still favor mastery of outdated planning frameworks. "You do not get promoted for declaring the OPLAN obsolete," the article argues, highlighting a perverse incentive structure that punishes honesty about systemic failure. The solution proposed is radical: a return to first principles. "The question that every combatant commander, J5, service chief should be forced to answer is: If you were designing the operational plan today, using today's tools in today's operating environment, what would you build?" This reframing forces leaders to confront the gap between their current inventory and the actual demands of a drone-saturated battlefield.

Critics might argue that completely discarding existing plans creates a dangerous vacuum during a transition period, potentially leaving forces unprepared. However, the piece counters that maintaining obsolete plans is the greater risk, as it creates a false sense of security. The editors emphasize that this is "unglamorous work," yet it forms the foundation for everything else. Without new doctrine for deploying protection and survivability infrastructure, new hardware alone cannot save a force.

The question is no longer whether to change — it is whether our institutions can move fast enough to matter.

Industrial Base and the Shift to Volume

Moving from strategy to execution, the coverage details a massive pivot in procurement: a plan to acquire 10,000 low-cost cruise missiles and a similar number of hypersonic weapons within three years. This represents a fundamental shift from the traditional model of buying fewer, more expensive platforms to a "high-low mix" strategy that prioritizes quantity and attrition resistance. The Department of War (DoW) has signed framework agreements with a slate of non-traditional entrants, including Anduril Industries, CoAspire, and Zone 5 Technologies, to drive this production.

The piece highlights the specific mechanism for this change: firm-fixed-price (FFP) contracts that move at the speed of commercial industry. "Today's announcement is the latest sign that our Acquisition Transformation Strategy is delivering on its promise to rebuild the Arsenal of Freedom," quotes the article, attributed to Michael Duffey, Under Secretary of War for Acquisition and Sustainment. The goal is to send a clear demand signal to innovative new entrants, breaking the monopoly of traditional prime contractors who have dominated the sector for decades. This approach mirrors the rapid scaling seen in other high-tech sectors, where the barrier to entry is lowered to encourage competition and speed.

The article connects this to the broader context of the "Golden Dome" missile defense ecosystem, noting that while the industrial base is growing, it requires serious government help to meet the scale of demand. The editors argue that this is exactly what is needed to fuel competition and invest in capabilities that can survive a high-intensity conflict. However, a counterargument worth considering is whether the industrial base can actually ramp up production to these levels without compromising quality or facing supply chain bottlenecks that have plagued previous major procurement efforts.

Capital Discipline and New Negotiators

Perhaps the most disruptive element of the coverage is the introduction of "Deal Team Six," a cadre of private-sector negotiators embedded within the Pentagon's Economic Defense Unit. Led by George Kollitides, a former head of defense at Cerberus Capital Management, this team is tasked with ending decades of cost overruns by requiring contractors to fund their own factory expansions. The piece describes this as a move away from the Pentagon acting as a "passive checkbook" that rewards failure.

"The Pentagon's old contracting system penalized the taxpayer for the contractor's failures, then handed out renewals anyway," the article states, contrasting the old model with the new mandate. The team is specifically targeting major financial institutions to deploy up to $200 billion over three years into critical national security companies. The logic is straightforward: companies that execute get predictable revenue, while those that miss are shown the door. This approach aims to redirect resources from overhead and consultants to actual combat power.

The editors are cautiously optimistic but warn that entrenched interests will fight back. "Entrenched interests never surrender without a fight, and the defense-industrial complex has had decades to perfect protecting the status quo," the piece notes. The true test of Deal Team Six will not be the first wave of deals, but whether it can embed new best practices that the broader defense workforce can sustain long after the team rotates out. The goal is to create a culture where competence is demonstrated and authorities are delegated back to the services, rather than concentrating power in a small group of outsiders.

The Human Cost and the Reality of Conflict

The coverage does not shy away from the brutal reality of these strategic shifts. It references theCENTCOM Commander's assessment that recent operations have degraded Iran's ability to project power, citing the destruction of 90% of its defense industrial base. While the military rationale is presented as a success in neutralizing threats, the commentary must acknowledge the human cost of such extensive destruction. The article quotes Admiral Brad Cooper stating that "Iran can no longer attack with that mass and scale," but this victory is built on the systematic dismantling of infrastructure that supports a nation's security and, by extension, its civilian population.

Furthermore, the piece details the development of "robot dogs with shotguns" and drone swarms packed into containers, technologies designed to reduce risk to human soldiers but which introduce new ethical and tactical complexities. The DARPA call for "autonomous constellations" capable of operating in GPS-denied environments suggests a future where warfare is increasingly automated. The editors note that these systems are intended to support networked swarms of up to 500 drones, a scale that fundamentally changes the nature of engagement. While the military argument is one of efficiency and force protection, the broader implication is a battlefield where the distinction between combatant and civilian, and between human and machine, becomes increasingly blurred.

The planning processes, the acquisition timelines, the risk aversion baked into a system designed for a slower world: those were the problems. And they are the same problems now rendering every OPLAN on every classified server obsolete.

Bottom Line

The strongest part of this argument is its refusal to treat new technology as a silver bullet; instead, it correctly identifies that the military's institutional inertia and outdated planning doctrines are the true bottlenecks to victory. The piece's greatest vulnerability lies in the assumption that the government can successfully incentivize a rapid industrial scale-up without the very cost overruns and delays it seeks to eliminate. Readers should watch closely to see if Deal Team Six can actually break the cycle of failure or if it becomes just another temporary fix in a system resistant to permanent change.

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  • Cyber kill chain

    The article argues that Ukraine's ability to compress this specific targeting loop from days to minutes has rendered traditional operational plans obsolete, making the technical definition of the concept essential to understanding the speed gap.

  • Stratolaunch Systems

    The article highlights the shift toward companies like Anduril, and this concept explains the specific legal and procurement mechanisms the Department of Defense uses to bypass traditional acquisition timelines for commercial technology.

Sources

Low cost munitions, higher quantity ships

In the latest edition of Defense Tech and Acquisition we cover:

DoW awards contracts to many non-traditionals for low-cost munitions

DoW and Service leaders have many FY27 budget hearings on the Hill

Insightful commentary on challenging decades of legacy biases

The Army is connecting more systems and scaling autonomy.

The Navy’s big Shipbuilding plan outlines the future Fleet

Air Force changes course on E-7 and advances new MQ-9 program.

Space industrial base is growing but needs serious government help

Golden Dome forms ecosystem hub and debates estimates with little info

Taiwan passes budget, allies want ITAR reform and NATO needs infrastructure

The Future of War Arrived. We Aren’t Ready.

RADM (Ret) Lorin Selby

BLUF: Every OPLAN in every military headquarters in the world is now obsolete. The hedge strategists said this day would come. It has arrived. The question is no longer whether to change — it is whether our institutions can move fast enough to matter.

Every OPLAN, CONPLAN, and campaign design was built on assumptions that are no longer true. The target sets have changed. The kill chains have changed. The very physics of the battlefield have changed.

The planning processes, the acquisition timelines, the risk aversion baked into a system designed for a slower world: those were the problems. And they are the same problems now rendering every OPLAN on every classified server obsolete.

Ukraine compressed the kill chain to minutes. EW became an hourly contest.

Companies once treated as peripheral (Anduril, Palantir, Shield AI, and dozens more) are no longer future capabilities, but present tense operational realities.

Most OPLANs reflect a world that existed 5-10 years ago. They are built around force employment models designed for the platforms we have had for decades.

You do not get promoted for declaring the OPLAN obsolete.

Rewriting the plans from first principles means questioning much of what sits upstream. But that is precisely what needs to happen.

“The question that every combatant commander, J5, service chief should be forced to answer is: If you were designing the operational plan today, using today’s tools in today’s operating environment, what would you build?”

The answer is not in any OPLAN currently on file.

Rewrite plans from first principles.

Move money at visible scale. Shift real dollars from legacy programs whose operational logic is eroding toward autonomous systems, software-defined capabilities, and commercial defense companies that are already moving at battlefield speed.

Rewrite ...