Dave Borlace cuts through the noise of climate activism to confront a hard truth: we aren't going to stop flying, so we must fix how we fly. While Greta Thunberg's refusal to fly sends a powerful moral message, Borlace argues that relying on behavioral change alone ignores the reality that aviation emissions are doubling, not falling. The most striking insight here is that the solution isn't just better batteries, but a return to the volatile, high-energy chemistry of the space shuttle program.
The Math of Flight
Borlace begins by dismantling the industry's optimistic narrative. He notes that while efficiency has improved, volume has exploded. "The IATA also optimistically tells us that airlines have cut average emissions per passenger journey in half compared to 1990 levels," he writes, before immediately undercutting it with the reality that "co2 emissions from aviation have doubled over the last twenty to twenty-five years." This framing is crucial because it shifts the blame from engine design to the sheer scale of the system.
The author points out that the current pricing model actively encourages this growth. "The insanity of our current pricing system has to change urgently," Borlace asserts, highlighting that subsidies make flying 600 miles cheaper than taking a train for 200. This is a sharp, necessary critique of the economic incentives driving the crisis. Critics might argue that raising ticket prices would disproportionately hurt lower-income travelers, but Borlace's point stands: without correcting the market distortion, technology alone cannot solve the volume problem.
The price we pay for such enormous energy density is that a round-trip from New York to London produces the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions as the average household produces heating their home for an entire year.
The Battery Ceiling
The commentary then pivots to the technological dead end of lithium-ion batteries for long-haul travel. Borlace explains that while short-haul electric flights are promising, they hit a hard wall when distance increases. "Compared to the 43 megajoules per kilogram like kerosene delivers lithium-ion batteries can only produce a comparatively poultry one mega Joule per kilogram," he notes. The weight penalty is insurmountable; a battery-powered plane would run out of fuel before crossing the Atlantic.
This section effectively uses the "flying Prius" analogy to illustrate current hybrid efforts, such as the E-Fan X project, but correctly identifies them as stopgaps. "All of which is extremely encouraging for short-haul flights all the way up to about a thousand miles but 80% of the aviation industries emissions come from a long haul and that's where battery-powered Electric planes hit the buffers." The argument here is rigorous: we cannot electrify the entire sky with current battery chemistry. The industry needs a different energy carrier entirely.
The Hydrogen Renaissance
Here, Borlace makes his most distinctive claim: the future of aviation lies in liquid hydrogen, the same fuel that powered the space shuttle. He reframes the volatile nature of hydrogen not as a liability, but as a feature of its high energy density. "Hydrogen is an extremely good candidate around a hundred and thirty mega joules per kilogram of energy it's three times as energy dense as jet a kerosene." This is the piece's strongest technical pivot, moving the conversation from incremental improvements to a fundamental redesign of aircraft architecture.
The author details the challenges, such as the need for cryogenic storage and the fact that fuel tanks must move from the wings to the fuselage. "Most liquids and hydrogen aircraft designs store the fuel in the fuselage which means the plane has to be larger and that potentially means more resistance or drag." Yet, he counters this with a compelling trade-off: the weight savings from carrying less fuel mass could offset the drag of a larger body. "A jumbo jet size plane at takeoff would weigh about 270,000 instead of 360,000 kilos and that weight saving would go a long way to compensating for the larger surface area of the aircraft."
Safety concerns are addressed with a surprising twist. Unlike kerosene, which pools and contaminates, liquid hydrogen "quickly vaporizes and disperses without the same kind of contamination and threat to health of airport staff." This reframing of risk is vital for public acceptance. However, a counterargument worth considering is the massive energy required to liquefy hydrogen in the first place. Borlace admits "current renewable infrastructure isn't yet set up to handle it," suggesting that a hydrogen aviation future is inextricably linked to a massive expansion of green energy production.
Liquid hydrogen has the potential to completely decarbonize civil aviation.
The Political Reality
Despite the technical promise, Borlace is realistic about the timeline. He warns readers not to expect a revolution overnight, noting that a fully functional commercial version is likely "more than a decade" away. In the interim, he argues that the most immediate lever for change remains political will rather than engineering breakthroughs. "The biggest and quickest impact that we can make as a society is the one we looked at right at the top of the program which is to apply a pricing structure that doesn't contain huge subsidies."
This conclusion ties the technological and economic threads together. The path forward requires a dual approach: fixing the market to reduce unnecessary flights while simultaneously investing in the radical infrastructure changes needed for hydrogen flight. Borlace's analysis avoids the trap of techno-optimism, acknowledging that the hardest part isn't building the plane, but building the political consensus to pay for it.
Bottom Line
Dave Borlace's strongest contribution is his refusal to accept batteries as a silver bullet for long-haul aviation, correctly identifying liquid hydrogen as the only viable path to decarbonization for global travel. The piece's greatest vulnerability lies in the immense infrastructure gap required to produce and store liquid hydrogen at scale, a challenge that extends far beyond the aviation industry itself. Readers should watch for the next decade of policy shifts regarding hydrogen subsidies, as that will determine if this technical possibility becomes a commercial reality.