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The week observed: September 19, 2025

In a week where infrastructure headlines usually focus on ribbon-cutting optimism, this briefing delivers a stark reality check: our most ambitious transportation projects are not just delayed, they are built on a foundation of contradictory data and fiscal fantasy. Joe Cortright's weekly digest cuts through the bureaucratic fog to reveal a system where climate goals are actively undermined by the very road expansions meant to solve congestion, all while costs spiral out of control.

The Cost of Delay and Denial

The Interstate Bridge Replacement project serves as the primary case study for institutional failure. What was supposed to be a record of decision in summer 2023 is now pushed to April 2026, a delay of more than two and a half years. Cortright is blunt about the consequence of this stalling: "These delays contribute to driving up project costs–and creating more billable hours for consultants." This is a critical observation that shifts the blame from external factors to the internal mechanics of the project itself. The author argues that state transportation officials routinely miss deadlines while offering vague claims of being "on schedule," a narrative that obscures the reality of failed execution.

The week observed: September 19, 2025

The financial implications are staggering. Cortright testified to lawmakers that escalating costs will be "squarely in the $10 billion range," necessitating an additional $1 billion from each state. Yet, the funding picture is precarious. "Federal funding is very, very much in doubt," Cortright said, later calling it "reckless to embark on this project" when all the funding isn't secured. The argument here is not just about budget overruns, but about the prudence of starting a project without a guaranteed financial backbone.

Critics of the delay might argue that complex environmental reviews take time and that rushing could lead to legal challenges that delay the project even further. However, Cortright's framing suggests that the delays are not due to necessary rigor, but to a failure to execute existing plans.

The Climate Contradiction

Perhaps the most damaging revelation in the piece is the direct conflict between regional climate goals and transportation planning. In the Portland area, transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases, and emissions are rising even as plans demand they fall. Cortright points out a fatal flaw in the logic of current infrastructure: "Metro's Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) counted on congestion pricing to reduce driving and greenhouse gases... but is now headed for repeal in the Oregon Legislature."

If the repeal goes through, it turns the Regional Transportation Plan into a "dead letter." The absurdity lies in the fact that billions of dollars in highway expansion projects are predicated on traffic forecasts assuming a 20-25 percent increase in driving, while the climate plan promises a 10-12 percent reduction. Cortright insists that "Metro needs to acknowledge, disclose and act on these facts: The region's climate plan and transportation plans are failing and need to be revisited immediately." This is a powerful indictment of a planning process that is effectively gaslighting the public by promising one future while building for another.

The entire system of highway funding is treated like economic development, when in reality, it has become the single greatest source of wealth destruction in our local communities.

Wealth Destruction in Rural America

Expanding the lens beyond the Pacific Northwest, Cortright highlights the work of Chuck Marohn of Strong Towns, who exposes the economic fallacy of rural highway expansion. The piece details a project in Baxter, Minnesota, where the state is spending $58 million to serve commerce on property valued at only $40.8 million. As Marohn points out, the cost of the project actually exceeds the value of the commercial property it serves.

This is not an isolated incident but a systemic issue. The author notes that "subsidizing auto-oriented development undercuts the market for traditional downtowns, like those in Brainerd." Instead of pouring money into massive interchanges, the argument suggests that "slowing traffic for eight blocks in Brainerd, planting trees, improving bike and walk crossings — these are tiny investments with huge returns." The contrast is stark: a fraction of the highway budget could yield far greater economic impact in the core of a community.

A counterargument might suggest that rural areas need high-speed corridors to attract outside investment and that local spending is insufficient to drive growth. Yet, the evidence presented suggests these projects often simply redistribute existing wealth rather than creating new value, serving drivers passing through rather than the residents who live there.

The Greenwashing of Aviation and the Illusion of Economic Multipliers

The commentary also tackles the environmental optics of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While Portland International Airport and Delta Airlines celebrate a pilot program, the fuel is merely a 50/50 blend of fossil fuel and biofuels, costing "two to three times more than conventional jet fuel." Cortright notes that environmental groups like 350PDX are quick to label this as greenwashing, arguing that "when you add the word 'sustainable' or 'renewable' it sounds better, but it's greenwashing at best." The core issue remains that the fuel still releases CO2, and the land use changes required to produce it may decrease nature-based carbon sequestration.

Finally, the piece dismantles the myth of the economic multiplier for large developments. Citing a new study on casinos, Cortright explains that while a new casino increases employment at that specific location, the effect turns negative just a few miles away. The authors conclude that "the overall multiplier for the labor market may be as much (or more) that -1, meaning that the casino adds no net jobs to the local economy." This finding suggests that projects like shopping centers or stadiums often simply change where people spend their money, not how much money they have to spend.

Bottom Line

Joe Cortright's analysis is a masterclass in connecting the dots between bureaucratic inertia, fiscal irresponsibility, and environmental failure. The strongest part of the argument is the exposure of the mathematical impossibility of current plans: you cannot build roads that increase driving while simultaneously promising to reduce it. The biggest vulnerability lies in the political will required to admit these failures and pivot, a hurdle that has proven insurmountable for decades. Readers should watch for the upcoming legislative vote on congestion pricing, as its repeal will likely cement the disconnect between climate rhetoric and transportation reality.

Sources

The week observed: September 19, 2025

by Joe Cortright · City Observatory · Read full article

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What City Observatory Did This Week.

The Interstate Bridge Project continues to fall behind schedule. In 2020, IBR told legislators they’d have a record of decision in the summer of 2023. It now appears that the earliest a record of decision will be released is April of 2026 more than two and a half years late.

These delays contribute to driving up project costs–and creating more billable hours for consultants. State transportation officials routinely miss their own deadlines, provide vague and misleading claims about being “on schedule”–never acknowledging that they’ve failed to execute their own plans, and that this is the reason for higher costs.

Metro's Climate and Transportation Plans are failing. Testifying to the Metro Council on September 18, Joe Cortright called out the failure of the region's climate plans. Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases in the Portland area, and is increasing, at a time when our plans call for GHGs to be decreasing.

Metro's Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) counted on congestion pricing to reduce driving and greenhouse gases, lower traffic congestion and help pay for roads, but is now headed for repeal in the Oregon Legislature. Repeal turns the Regional Transportation Plan into a dead letter.

Billions of dollars of highway expansion projects—the Interstate Bridge, Rose Quarter and Abernethy Bridge—are predicated on traffic forecasts that assume total driving in Metro Portland increases by 20-25 percent in the next two decades, when the Metro climate plan and RTP promise to reduce total driving by about 10-12 percent.

Metro needs to acknowledge, disclose and act on these facts: The region's climate plan and transportation plans are failing and need to be revisited immediately.

Must Read.

Chuck Marohn of Strong Towns digs deep into a highway expansion project being peddled as an economic tonic for rural Minnesota. Here, the state highway department is proposing a massive, auto-oriented interchange to speed traffic around and through a largely suburban, big-box retail area.

As Marohn points out, the total cost of the project actually exceeds the value of the commercial property it serves.

The entire system of highway funding is treated like economic development, when in reality, it has become the single greatest source of wealth destruction in our local communities. The absurdity runs deep. In Baxter, Corridors of Commerce is spending $58 million to serve commerce on $40.8 million of property. It doesn’t have to be this way.... If ...