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Artificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — lewis bollard

The case for ending factory farming sounds simple: just replace animal meat with lab-grown alternatives. But the economics tell a far more complex story — one that reveals why technological optimism might be the least effective tool in the fight against animal suffering.

Lewis Ballard serves as farm animal welfare program director at Open Philanthropy, arguably the largest animal welfare charity in the world. In a recent interview, he laid out why the path to cruelty-free protein is far harder than many advocates assume — and why the solutions that actually work are almost never what people expect.

Artificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — lewis bollard

The Efficiency Trap

Factory farming has evolved into an extraordinarily efficient system. A chicken converts relatively small amounts of grain into protein at a ratio of roughly 2:1 — meaning for every two pounds of grain , you get one pound of meat out. That grain is incredibly cheap. Combined with the fact that producers have eliminated nearly all costs associated with treating animals well or providing comfort, the system has driven prices down to near-zero margins.

The comparison to artificial intelligence is instructive. Researchers have spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to replicate human intelligence — a problem evolution solved over tens of millions of years. But converting calories into meat? Evolution has been optimizing that for billions of years. The target isn't just beating chicken price; it's beating the cost of grain multiplied by two, plus minimal production overheads.

That is an extraordinarily difficult benchmark to meet.

Why Cultivated Meat Faces an Uphill Battle

The appeal of cultivated meat is obvious: a technology that produces meat without raising animals. But Ballard cautions against assuming this solves the problem.

Currently, companies sell cultivated meat in very small volumes at extremely high price points. The challenge ahead involves scaling production while driving costs down to compete with factory farmed chicken — which is essentially as cheap as food gets.

The venture capital picture tells an interesting story. Funding for humane technology — MRI machines for eggs, welfare improvements on existing farms — amounts to perhaps less than $10 million annually. Meanwhile, alternative protein startups have received billions in investment over recent years, driven partly by the appeal of replacing entire industries rather than reforming them.

Ballard calls this the "moonshot" seduction: investors prefer solutions that feel like electric vehicles or solar power — something entirely new that replaces old practices wholesale. But he doesn't see the entire market switching to alternative proteins anytime soon.

The Myth of Personal Purity

When discussions about animal welfare arise, they often frame the problem as one of personal behavior: encourage people toward vegetarianism, convince individuals to eat less meat. But Ballard argues this approach has fundamental limits.

He points out that large-scale social change doesn't come from personal dietary choices. Government reform and corporate policy changes affect millions of animals regardless of what any individual eats. People can advocate for systemic reform without changing their own diet — by funding organizations, supporting policy changes, or pushing companies toward cage-free supply chains.

The movement itself has shifted dramatically in recent years, Ballard says. It moved from obsession with personal purity — whether someone is fully vegan or vegetarian — toward impact-focused strategies that actually scale.

The Three Levers of Progress

So what actually works? Government policy, corporate reform, and technology.

Government advocacy secured the European Union's basic animal welfare standards, affecting billions of animals annually. Corporate reforms similarly demonstrate massive scale: McDonald's recently implemented its cage-free pledge in the United States alone, touching roughly 7 million hens per year from just that one company's supply chain.

Technology offers another lever. One example involves inovo sexing — a technology that scans eggs to determine gender before hatching, eliminating the need to kill male chicks born in the egg industry. This innovation has already spared approximately 200 million chicks from being ground up or suffocated at birth.

The combined potential is enormous: tens of billions of animals could benefit through these three drivers — far exceeding what personal dietary changes ever could achieve.

Critics might note that government and corporate reforms still leave millions of animals in factory farming conditions, and some argue the only true ethical solution is eliminating animal agriculture entirely. Ballard acknowledges this tension but argues the pragmatic path saves more suffering than purity-focused approaches that fail to move the needle at scale.

"The end of factory farming is far from inevitable — every year we're farming about 2% more animals globally."

Bottom Line

Ballard's strongest argument is his empirical one: technology alone won't beat evolution's efficiency optimization, and personal dietary choices don't drive systemic change. His vulnerability lies in the uncomfortable reality that even the most effective interventions still leave vast numbers of animals in factory conditions — a problem that no single lever fully resolves. The next development to watch is whether inovo sexing and similar welfare technologies can scale faster than global animal farming continues to expand.

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Artificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — lewis bollard

by Dwarkesh Patel · Dwarkesh Patel · Watch video

Today I'm chatting with Lewis Ballard who is farm animal welfare program director at Open Philanthropy and Open Philanthropy is the biggest charity in this animal welfare space. So Lewis, thanks so much for coming on the podcast. >> Thanks for having me on. >> Okay, first question.

At some point we'll have AGI. How do you just think about the problem you're trying to solve? Are you trying to make conditions more tolerable for the next 10 years until AI solves this problem for us? or is there some reason to think that the interventions we're making in terms of improvements like an over sexing or cage-free eggs etc will have an impact beyond this transformative moment.

>> I think that the end of factory farming is far from inevitable. Every year we're factory farming about 2% more animals globally. I think there are two possible trajectories we could go down. One is the trajectory that we have been on for the last century which is technology has made factory farming ever more efficient resulted in ever more animals being abused in ever more intensive ways.

>> There is a trajectory where we reduce the number of animals on factory farms where we reduce the suffering of each of those animals. So even if we get AGI I am really optimistic that will accelerate forms of technological progress. It will bring us better alternative proteins. It will improve the humane technology.

But there are still huge cultural and political obstacles to alternatives. So the cultural obstacles are that most people want real meat. most people have the option already of plant-based meat that tastes about as good as real meat. And that's it.

I don't know. >> So this is the debate. That's fair. This is a debate.

But I don't think that's just the obstacle that people have. I think there are a lot of people who say, I'm just not interested in, the alternative. I want the real thing. And then there's also the political obstacle.

So let's say that AGI solves cultivated meat for us. >> Well, cultivated meat's already illegal in seven US states. It's it's might soon be illegal in the entire European Union. So by the time we get AGI, will they even be able to sell it anywhere?

So again, I think there's a huge amount of good that technology can do ...