Dave Borlace delivers a stark warning that cuts through the noise of daily headlines: the ocean is about to release a massive pulse of stored heat, potentially shattering every temperature record we thought was safe. While much of the climate conversation focuses on carbon emissions alone, this piece forces a reckoning with the lagging, volatile mechanics of the Pacific Ocean that could turbocharge global warming in the coming year. The evidence presented suggests we are not just facing another hot summer, but a systemic shift that could destabilize weather patterns from California to Kenya.
The Triple Dip and the Coming Surge
Borlace begins by contextualizing the unusual weather of the last three years, noting that "an Oceanic and Atmospheric phenomenon known as La Nina developed in the Pacific Ocean... it didn't last for three seasons it lasted for three years." This "triple dip" acted as a temporary brake on atmospheric warming, yet the planet still recorded its three hottest years on record during that suppression. Now, that brake is gone. The author explains that the system has shifted to a neutral phase, with "all the signs now pointing to a strong El Nino system Brewing up for this summer and into 2024."
The framing here is crucial. Borlace does not treat El Nino as a mere weather pattern but as a release valve for pent-up energy. He writes, "El Nino does the opposite of La Nina it puts additional warming into our already warming Global atmosphere." This distinction is vital for understanding why 2024 could be catastrophic; it is not just about greenhouse gases continuing to rise, but about the ocean finally dumping decades of absorbed heat back into the air. Critics might argue that natural variability makes long-term forecasting difficult, but the data on sea surface temperatures in the critical Pacific regions is hard to ignore.
The amount of energy transferred across the ocean during that event was equivalent to 100 times the total energy consumption of the entire human species over a whole year.
Global Ripples and Regional Extremes
The commentary shifts to the tangible impacts on human populations, moving from abstract ocean temperatures to concrete disasters. Borlace highlights that while the United States might see a reduction in Atlantic hurricanes due to increased wind shear, the trade-off is severe winter storms in the southern states. He notes that "low pressure in the North Pacific pushes the polar jet stream further north bringing warmer than normal conditions to the northern states... but El Nino also amplifies the southerly Pacific jet stream bringing lower temperatures and extreme storms to these Southern States."
This regional analysis is effective because it dispels the myth that a warmer world means uniformly mild weather everywhere. Instead, it creates a chaotic mix of extremes. The author draws on historical data, specifically the 1997 event, to illustrate the scale of potential damage, citing "extreme rain and mudslides" in California and "freak rainfall" in Kenya. The human cost is emphasized through the 2016 example, where the United Nations reported impacts on "around 100 million people worldwide," including permanent damage to coral reefs and massive displacement in Ethiopia. The argument lands because it connects distant oceanic shifts directly to food security and housing crises in vulnerable nations.
The Ocean as a Time Bomb
Perhaps the most alarming section of the piece concerns the sheer volume of heat currently sitting in the ocean. Borlace points out that "more than 90 percent of the extra heat caused by cumulative emissions since the industrial revolution has been taken up by our oceans." With average global ocean surface temperatures in 2023 already beating the 2016 record at 21.1 degrees Celsius, the stage is set for a release that science warns will be unprecedented.
The author cites Dr. Kevin Trenberth to explain the mechanism: "that increased absorption will cause more extreme and long-lasting Marine heat waves." These are not just warm days; they are sustained events that cause coral bleaching, algae blooms, and jeopardize ice sheets. The framing of the ocean as a heat sink that is now reaching capacity is a powerful narrative device. It suggests that the climate system has a delayed reaction time, and we are about to feel the consequences of emissions from decades past in a sudden, violent burst.
The three years of the triple dip La Nina that we've just experienced suppressed the atmospheric warming effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Bottom Line
Dave Borlace's strongest argument is the synthesis of oceanic heat accumulation with the imminent arrival of El Nino, creating a compelling case for a record-breaking year of global disruption. The piece's greatest vulnerability lies in its reliance on historical analogs like 1997 and 2016, which may not fully account for how a baseline of higher global temperatures amplifies these natural cycles. The reader should watch for the specific timing of the peak El Nino phase, as the window between the ocean's heat release and the resulting atmospheric chaos is narrowing rapidly.