{"title": "EXPERT: Iran War Was Driven By Israel, It's A Disaster", "author": "Novara Media", "adapted_text": "Annel Shelene spent years inside the US State Department before resigning in protest over American support for Gaza. Now a research fellow at the Quincy Institute, she's been tracking this conflict since Trump launched strikes on Iran sixteen months ago. Her assessment is stark: Israel manipulated America into a war it wasn't prepared for, and the consequences are already catastrophic.
The War Nobody Wanted
The surprises haven't come from Iran's response. They've come from how completely unprepared the White House was. President Trump launched this war apparently without understanding that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE would respond with fury. These Gulf states saw their economies devastated by oil price spikes—outcomes any serious briefi ng would have predicted.
Trump seems to have missed what his own administration learned about drones from Ukraine. Iran possesses massive stocks of cheap, effective drones that American interceptors struggle to bring down. The US had limited supply of those interceptors and no plan for what happens when they run out.
The most disturbing element: Trump apparently expected to decapitate Iran's government by taking out the Supreme Leader, as if that would end the regime. Iran has been preparing for this scenario for generations—contingency plans in place long before this conflict began.
The Gulf States' Betrayal
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states feel profoundly betrayed. They invested hundreds of billions into American fighter planes and the military-industrial complex, expecting protection in return. When Iran struck their oil facilities in 2019, Trump's response was essentially: "They hit Saudi Arabia, not the US—so we're doing nothing."
That silence shattered the Saudis' trust. By early 2023, they normalized relations with Iran through a deal guaranteed by China. Their worst fear has always been exactly this scenario—war in the region—where America either loses definitively or wins through total destruction.
The Gulf states concluded that Iran isn't going anywhere, and they'd rather have an Iran that doesn't aim weapons at them.
Israel's Propaganda Strategy
New York Times reporting suggests Saudi Arabia's crown prince is urging Trump to keep hitting Iran hard. But Shelene is extremely skeptical. She hears something different from contacts in Saudi Arabia: these are Israeli talking points designed to drag Arab states into the war, hoping Iran will shift its focus away from Israel and target Gulf States instead—forcing those countries to respond.
Israel's actual goal? Distributing blame for this disaster by making it seem like everyone wanted this. If they can make it look like Saudis pushed for conflict too, maybe American voters blame someone else.
The irony is stark: Israel is running dangerously low on interceptors and it's unclear how much longer they can sustain this fight.
The Strait of Hormuz Trap
Trump has asked allies—Britain, China, even Gulf states—to help clean up his mess. Most have refused. Even if they wanted to help, there's no military solution that reopens the Strait of Hormuz without accepting massive risk.
The US Navy won't come within range where Iranian drones and missiles could strike an aircraft carrier—a devastating blow to American prestige. Other countries similarly refuse to sacrifice their valuable ships for Trump's mess.
These Chinese-made drones are remarkably precise. They've taken out massively expensive military radars in places like Bahrain. The interceptors can hit some, but supply is running low.
China's Strategic Pleasure
Social media shows videos of Chinese factories producing what appear to be Shahid drones bound for Iran. Whether China keeps supplying these drones matters enormously.
Would China prefer to see America bogged down in the Middle East? Absolutely. This serves Chinese interests perfectly. For years, Obama argued the US should pivot to Asia—the Middle East no longer so strategically crucial—while most Middle Eastern oil flows east to China anyway.
China isn't interested in replicating America's mistakes. They won't extend security guarantees that might trap them in conflict. They're quite pleased watching America make exactly those mistakes again.
Has America Already Lost?
The possibility of nuclear weapons use is now being discussed openly—Secretary Hegseth has raised it. If the US resorts to total destruction doctrine the way Israel has in Gaza, that wouldn't be winning. That would be spiteful desperation: destroying as much Iranian territory as possible out of spite rather than admitting defeat.
Critics might note that attributing sole responsibility to Israel oversimplifies a complex situation where multiple actors—America's political leadership, Iranian hardliners, and Gulf state calculations—all contributed to escalation. The war also reflects decades of regional tensions that predate any single decision or manipulation.
Bottom Line
Shelene's strongest argument is structural: this war was foreseeable at every turn, from drone warfare capabilities to Gulf state reactions to Iranian preparation. America's biggest vulnerability is strategic: whether Trump and his team were manipulated or simply incompetent matters less than the fact that either explanation leaves America in an unwinnable position. Watch for whether Iran consolidates its nuclear program while America burns through its interceptor supply—because right now, nobody on any side seems to have a path to victory.